Thursday Stuff

post from The Liberal Doomsayer on 30 September 2010 11:56:00 PM. © The Liberal Doomsayer

Wow, new White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee explains the tax cuts business so well here that even those zany teabaggers may get it (here) - on second thought, naaaah...

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...and James Dean died 55 years ago today.

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The Way Of All Things

post from Texas Liberal on 30 September 2010 11:54:42 PM. © Texas Liberal

Here is a picture of a fossil I took a few weeks ago at the local science museum. A lot of things in life make people angry. But you’ve got to take it all in stride. You’ve got to at least try.

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Polling and Political Wrap, 9/30/10

post from Daily Kos on 30 September 2010 11:50:05 PM. © Daily Kos

For the "holy crap, where has the time gone" file, please note that this Wrap is the final one of the 3rd quarter of 2010.

That should also be placed in the "holy crap, I should donate some cash to the candidate I really want to see win in November column", as the 3rd quarter FEC deadline in now hours away.

A lighter, gentler Wrap greets us on this Thursday evening, with new data from 28 different polls stretching from coast-to-coast, and beyond.

A local pollster conducts a really interesting experiment in Alaska, while SUSA shows Democratic prospects improving (!) in two House races. Lazio's exit has not saved Carl Paladino in New York, and Ras is back to being Ras.

All that (and more!) in the Thursday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

AK-Sen: Murkowski leads...or is third...in new state poll
An interesting approach to the Lisa Murkowski write-in option comes today from local pollsters Ivan Moore Research. Moore tested the hot-button Senate race, twice. On the first go-around, Moore did not offer voters the overt option of selecting Murkowski. 18% volunteered her name, nonetheless, but that put her in a distant third behind both Republican Joe Miller (43%) and Democrat Scott McAdams (28%). Then, Moore reminded respondents that Murkowski's write-in candidacy was indeed an option for them. Then he re-tested the race. With that level of prompting, Murkowski surged into the lead over Miller (44-36), and McAdams saw his support halved (14%). What this proves, of course, is that the small pocket of Democrats who seemed to welcome a Murkowski continuation in the race might have had misguided hopes, since it seems as if her candidacy is drawing far more from the Democrat than her fellow Republican.

CA-Sen: PPIC poll confirms movement to Boxer
A new poll from local pollsters PPIC might not be quite as bullish on the Democrats as CNN and the LA Times were over the past week, but they confirm (PDF file) the clear movement in the Senate race towards incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer. The pollster gives Boxer a lead over seven points (42-35) over Carly Fiorina.

NH-Sen: UNH poll shows Ayotte with a double-digit edge
If you put stock in the latest polling from the University of New Hampshire, then a pickup opportunity for the Democrats may well be sliding away. The latest UNH poll puts Republican Kelly Ayotte at 50%, with Democrat Paul Hodes trailing by fifteen points (35%). That is nearly double the margin from the last UNH poll in July, where Ayotte held a lead of eight points.

THE U.S. HOUSE

AK-AL: Moore tests this race, and sees a pending blowout
It is safe to say that if this race was on anyone's target list, the new numbers from Ivan Moore Research will change that in a big hurry. Don Young is suddenly more than doubling up Democrat Harry Crawford (65-32). While no one has had this race as a toss-up, the margins in previous polls have been in the 15-25 point range.

GA-08: GOP internal claims Marshall now trailing in re-election bid
If true, this new poll from Republican pollsters American Viewpoint might put another Democratic seat in serious peril. After their previous poll showed a five-point lead for Dem incumbent Jim Marshall, their new survey has GOP challenger Austin Scott leading Marshall by eight points (46-38). Marshall represents a district that is perilous, and his defeat would belie the niblet of conventional wisdom that defying the President was proper insulation for Democrats in tough districts.

NH-01/NH-02: GOPers lead, but 2nd district getting very close
In addition to their Senate numbers, the University of New Hampshire's polling outfit did some (small sample) polling of the state's two House races. The Republicans currently are in the lead to pick up both seats, but former Congressman Charlie Bass is hardly closing the deal in the 2nd district. Bass' once double-digit lead over Democrat Ann Kuster has been whittled down to just five points (43-38). In the state's other House race in the 1st district, Republican challenger currently leads Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter by ten points (49-39).

NJ-01/NJ-02/NJ-03: Zogby says swing race competitive, others aren't
A new poll out from Zogby on behalf of Richard Stockton College shows that the only competitive race in southern New Jersey is the battle between freshman Democrat John Adler and Republican (and former NFL baller) Jon Runyan. In the poll, conducted last week, Adler leads Runyan by eight points (38-30), with 8% of the vote going to Tea Party candidate Peter DeStefano. In the other two districts tested by Zogby, the contests are noncompetitive. Both incumbent Democrat Rob Andrews (NJ-01) and incumbent Republican Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02) are rolling their challengers with 59% of the vote. Both of their challengers languish in the mid-20s.

NJ-03: Monmouth poll sees a tossup among likely voters
Another poll out today is significant more bullish on the prospects of former Eagles lineman Jon Runyan. The Monmouth/Gannett poll gives Democrat John Adler a cushion of just three points over Runyan (42-39), with DeStefano hanging back with 4% of the vote. That makes the third poll in two days putting Adler in front of Runyan, but well under that 50% incumbent threshold for electoral security.

NY-13: McMahon has a solid lead, according to Dem and GOP internals
It is pretty rare when Democratic and Republican internal polling essentially agree, but they are doing so on Staten Island, and that is very good news for incumbent Democrat Mike McMahon. The freshman Democrat has a wide lead over Republican Michael Grimm in his own internal polling from Global Strategy Group (53-35). The NRCC countered with a poll of their own (from Zeplowitz and Associates). However, for reasons passing understanding, the poll they were flogging also showed McMahon ahead by quite a few points (46-38). So, it looks like we can say for sure that McMahon is ahead. Apparently, the Dems and the GOP are only quibbling on the margin.

RI-01/RI-02: Democrats well ahead in RI Congressional battles
Fleming and Associates are out with new numbers in both of Rhode Island's House districts, and the numbers are really good for the Democrats. In the open-seat 1st district that Republicans had their eye on, Democrat David Cicilline enjoys a nineteen-point edge (48-29) over Republican John Loughlin. Meanwhile, in the neighboring 2nd district, incumbent Democrat Jim Langevin has a commanding lead over Republican Mark Zaccaria (54-24).

VA-09: Boucher up double digits and climbing, according to SUSA
One potentially vulnerable Democrat who seems to be more than holding his own is veteran Virginia Democrat Rick Boucher. The latest edition of the SurveyUSA poll for this southwestern Virginia district puts Boucher up by fifteen points (53-38) over Republican challenger Morgan Griffith. That margin is a few points wider than the previous SUSA expedition into the district.

WA-02: Larsen back in front over Koster, according to new SUSA poll
Northwestern Washington might be tilting back towards the Democrats, according to a new SurveyUSA poll in the 2nd district between Democratic incumbent Rick Larsen and John Koster. The pollster, which had the challenger moving into the lead a few weeks back, puts Larsen back out in front today, with 50% of the vote. Koster is hot on the incumbent's heels, however, notching 47% of the vote. Last time around, SUSA gave Koster a four-point edge in the race.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

AK-Gov: Parnell leads handily over Berkowitz in new poll
The final stop in the Ivan Moore polling tour of Alaska is the state's gubernatorial race pitting incumbent Republican Sean Parnell and Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz. Tracking with most recent polling in the race, the Ivan Moore poll gives the incumbent an eighteen-point edge (53-35) over Berkowitz. Berkowitz, you will recall, took 45% of the vote in 2008 against Congressman Don Young. This time around, he is facing someone who lacks Young's significant baggage, which seems to be dampening his prospects, at least thus far.

AR-Gov: Incumbent Democrat crusing, according to Talk Business poll
2010 is not a wonderful climate for many incumbent Governors, but one guy that seems to be immune is Democrat Mike Beebe in Arkansas. After a brief boomlet for Republican challenger Jim Keet over the summer, polls have shown a widening lead for the Democrat. The latest offering from Talk Business/Hendrix College follows the recent trend, with Beebe holding a fourteen-point lead over Keet (49-35). The same pollster gave Beebe a lead of just nine points in July.

CA-Gov: PPIC swims against tide, throws Meg a lifeline
One of these ones is not like the others...the new poll out today from PPIC bucks the trend (PDF file) of recent polls in putting Republican Meg Whitman into a narrow lead (38-37) over Democrat Jerry Brown. Worth noting, however: though the poll was released today, it was in the field before this week's debate (where Brown seemed to outperform the Republican) and the revelations about Whitman's housekeeper troubles.

IL-Gov: Another pollster confirms movement to Democrat in Illinois
Democratic Governor Pat Quinn, despite simply brutal approval numbers, seems to be having a bit of an electoral resurrection in his battle with Republican challenger Bill Brady. After a CNN poll yesterday showed the incumbent tied among registered voters, a new PPP poll of likely voters shows him down seven points (42-35) to Brady. Third party candidates grab a significant share of the vote (12%), which makes a seven-point deficit a little bit tougher to make up in November. A bright spot for Quinn: the undecided voters are heavily Democratic.

NY-Gov: First post-Lazio poll gives Cuomo a comfortable edge
With Rick Lazio having decided to exit stage right in the 2010 electoral cycle, Marist College decided to re-test the gubernatorial race now that the battle is essentially boiled down to two combatants. In so doing, they find a sizeable edge for Democrat Andrew Cuomo over Republican Carl Paladino. Among likely voters (and pressing for leaners), Cuomo owns a sixteen-point edge over the Republican (56-40). Among registered voters, the margin widens even further, with Cuomo sitting on a twenty-two point advantage (56-34). Bear in mind, also, that this poll was conducted before Paladino's high-profile episode last night, where he completely lost his shit in a confrontation with a representative of the New York Post. It will be interesting to see where those numbers go next week.

RI-Gov: Local pollster sees a Caprio/Chafee toss-up
As many expected at the outset, one of the first post-primary polls of the Rhode Island governor's race has essentially evolved into a two-way battle with the GOP nominee on the outside looking in. The poll, by Fleming and Associates, has Democrat Frank Caprio pacing the field at 33%. Right on his back, however, is Republican-turned-Independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, who has 30% of the vote. Trailing well behind is Republican John Robataille (19%).

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

A quintet of new numbers from the House of Ras, and with the exception of the Massachusetts' numbers, they are pretty universally awful. The good news, of course, is that least some of them (Kentucky and Washington come to mind) have been solidly contradicted by other pollsters, so this could all be a case of Ras being Ras.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 49%, Jack Conway (D) 38%
MA-Gov: Gov. Patrick (D) 47%, Baker (R) 42%, Cahill (I) 6%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 53%, Rory Reid (D) 40%
WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) 48%, Sen. Patty Murray (D) 47%
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R) 54%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 42%

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-Wrap,-9-30-10

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Open Thread

post from Crooks and Liars on 30 September 2010 11:30:03 PM. © Crooks and Liars

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Rest In Peace, Tony Curtis

Open thread below

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Election Diary Rescue 2010 (9/30 - 33 Days 'til
Election Day)

post from Daily Kos on 30 September 2010 11:20:05 PM. © Daily Kos

This Rescue Diary covers the period from 6 PM, Wednesday, 9/29 to 6:00 PM EDT, Thursday, 9/30

Today's Menu Includes :
59 Diaries Overall
- 16 On House races

- Covering 12 individual Districts in 6 states
- 20 On Senate races

- Representing 14 different states
- 20 On Various election races and ballot issues

- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more
- 3 General election-related diaries

And be sure to follow the Election Diary Rescue on Twitter

(Tonight's compilation and more after the jump............)

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-2010-(9-3033-Days-til-Election-Day)

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Late Night: U.S. Nuclear Missile Sites Experience
Close Encounters of the Second Kind

post from Firedoglake on 30 September 2010 11:03:05 PM. © Firedoglake

We could use a break tonight. Tensions are running high; they’re going to run even higher the closer we get to Election Day.Let’s talk about something outside of the usual he-said-she-said political stuff, something completely off the beaten[...]

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Helluva Spot

post from Talking Points Memo on 30 September 2010 11:01:46 PM. © Talking Points Memo

Meg Whitman has denied for two days that she and her husband ever received the Social Security Administration letter which suggests she knew that her maid was in the US illegally.Now she's admitting that ... well, maybe they did get it. And yeah the[...]

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French politician confuses 'inflation' with.... a
sexual act

Oh, come on, it's a political story. ;-)

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The Base of the Base is NOT sitting on our hands:
We are in the streets working to elect Democrats

All the various kinds of professional leftist I know, are not sitting on their hands. No sirree.[...]

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C&L's Late Night Music Club With The Streets

Genre: The StreetsTitle: Dry Your Eyes
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I don't know of many songs that capture the pain and desperation of a break up as well as this one does. I spent a night boozing with Mike Skinner of The Streets a few years back, and when I asked him about this song he told me that he likes to write songs as if he were writing movies. What's your favorite breakup song?

A Grand Don't Come for Free