Welcome to yet another gloomy edition of the 2010 DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best House forecasts on the net.
House Forecast: 210.1 (-45.9), another drop from the last forecast on Oct 23, (213.0 (-43.)). Nothing here you don't already know. (The red line in the graph shows where the House flips, at the loss of 39 seats). Here are the numbers:
Cook: -49.6 (was -46.5)
Rothenberg: -44.9 (was -41.4)
SSP: -38.6 (was -36.6)
CQ: -41.9 (was -38.1)
538: -54.4 (was -52.4)
We'll have race-by-race results here on Tuesday, and, as always, will track the races by how they were originally rated. Remember, the Tossups split exactly 50-50 in 2008. The Dems will have to improve on that if they want to keep the House this year.
Methodology after the break.
The House Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 House.
For CQ, Rothenberg and SSP, the House Forecast for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a race that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat. At that request of Cook Political Report, we are now counting their Leans at .65, and their Likelys at .8. Although we don't differentiate between the Likelys and the Solids in the chart, the number for Cook does reflect their percentages. For 538, the overall is taken directly from their forecasts, not derived from their rankings. For the rankings, we have normalized 538's categories to match the other forecasts, so 35-65% = T, and 11-34% and 66-89% = RL or DL as appropriate.
This Rescue Diary covers the period from 6 PM, Friday, 10/29 to 6:00 PM EDT, Saturday, 10/30
Today's Menu Includes :
52 Diaries Overall
- 11 On House races
- Covering 6 individual Districts in 5 states
- 17 On Senate races
- Representing 10 different states
- 7 On Various election races and ballot issues
- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more
- 17 General election-related diaries
And be sure to follow the Election Diary Rescue on Twitter
You can listen to past editions or make a donation to help keep these going at http://professionalleft.blogspot.com/. And here is the article from Esquire magazine which was discussed during the podcast.
DNC makes major ad buy on BET and MSNBC with ad featuring Obama ("Don't Sit This One Out"). Watch it here. [...]
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It’s been about seven or eight hours now, so it is high time to render a final, definitive verdict: Has the Jon Stewart/Stephen Colbert “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear” succeeded? Or failed? Has sanity indeed been restored? The[...]
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I can imagine that this clip scared the crap out of some parents when it originally aired. Screamin' Jay always brought the wow. Be safe tonight and watch out for monsters.
And don't forget our sister site Newstalgia has for its Backstage Weekend concert Pretty Things Live in London, 1973.
Okay, so it's not really Halloween, but it will be shortly. Besides, if you're like me you can't read even those three words without following them with a chorus of creepy delights voiced by Jack Skellington's neighbors. Of course, A Nightmare Before Christmas isn't really a horror movie, what with it's happy ending and lovable misfits. It is a movie, though and some people would argue that "good" and "horror" are words that don't go together with "movie."
I disagree. Sure, when you think of the absolute dregs of the movie barrel, horror films often come to mind. If you're making a film without much money, much in the way of actors, or much of a clue about what you're doing, handing someone an ax and spreading gallons of Karo syrup mixed with red food coloring seems to strike many directors as a really good idea. The result is the kind of film that premieres in late January, where it fills a gap in the schedule and studios can hope it is safely forgotten long before award season comes to town.
Even defining what a horror movie is can be difficult. Does it require some supernatural events? Is a spooky location a prerequisite? Must someone die? Would two hours of being forced to watch Beck and O'Reilly count? (the answers are no, maybe, no, and yes)
So as you finish with your long day of knocking on doors that have already been knocked on or calling people who are snarling over having been called two dozen times before, why not settle in, turn off the lights, and catch a few quick horror classics?
Kathryn Bigelow might have taken home the Oscar for The Hurt Locker, but it was this film that established her as a director worth watching. Populated by stars that wandered in from then-hubby James Cameron's film Aliens, it's a vampire film that doesn't have one castle, bat, or cross. It doesn't even include the word "vampire." What it does have is a crew of red-neck neck biters who are un-living proof that many who long for immortality don't know what to do with a rainy afternoon (or a long night in a cheap motel after the local TV cuts off). This film suffered from opening on the same weekend as the glitzier The Lost Boys, but over 20 years later it holds up far better. Plus you get a techno score from Tangerine Dream to zip the film along. Watch it just to hear Bill Paxton's shit-kicker vampire utter the immortal line, "I hate 'em when they ain't been shaved."
Yes, it's set in space. That doesn't stop this from being the best haunted house film ever made (and I'm including both adaptations of The Haunting of Hill House when I say that). You probably don't need me to repeat the plot, but after one sequel out to warp the story into military action and two more out to... hell, who knows what those other films were trying to do. Whatever it was, they failed. Anyway, all that mucus, muscles, and machine gun crap that's come since the first film may have made you forget just how good, how carefully made, and how scary this film really is. Every shadow, every oddly organic sound emitted by the ship, every one of a thousand blind turns and open hatchways, every inch of the Nostromo's lived-in corridors -- it all becomes terrifying. Something is waiting. You don't know quite what it is, what it wants, or what rules dictate its behavior. You only know that it's malevolent, powerful, and it will kill you. Quite possibly just from the fright. And hey, look how young Sigourney is.
The Night Stalker
Oh Carl Kolchack, how I miss you. I miss your sharp wit, your geen-u-ine newspaper reporter hat, and your coat that made Peter Falk's Columbo look stylish. I miss you so much that I wrote a whole book series just trying to revive the intrepid-reporter-investigates-weird-stories sub-genre (heavy sigh). But the truth is, Carl, you were at your best when we first saw you, in this 1972 made for TV film. Want to hear something really amazing? Then this film first ran, it got a Neilsen rating of 54. Fifty-friggin' four. That means over half the TV sets in the nation were tuned in to watch Darrin McGavin as he pieced together the true nature of a fanged killer stalking through the (pre-Strip) alleys of Las Vegas. Three decades later, it's still a blast to see Kolchak talking his way through situations, and still a shock to see Janos Skorzeny climb out of that pool after fighting off a half dozen policemen, stand up to a hail of gunfire, and hiss like a cobra.
The Silence of the Lambs
What? You think it's not horror just because it's got big name actors and a stack of awards? Come over here, Clarice, I have something really interesting to show you... Jodie Foster was never more appealing, Anthony Hopkins absolutely compelling, and both of them elevated a disturbing book into a film your couldn't stop watching, even when you wanted to. It's a movie made up as much by the little moments of Clarice's relationship to her boss as it is the brutality of the murderer she's chasing. And it simply works on every level. Come on, tell me you never picked up a bag of faba beans and didn't have a momentary thought of washing them down with a nice chianti?
Oh, shut up already. I can hear you out there muttering "what's this one doing here?" The thing is, I'm a sucker for a good creature feature. The Black Lagoon? My kind of place. And this is the best constructed film of its kind in the last two decades (Tremors is also a lot of fun, but more comedy than horror). It steals just enough from every one of those "it really happened" stories you half-remember from high school, and assembles them around a... bad guy? villian? THING that keeps upping the ante on creepy. A lot of the press around this film was negative, because halfway through it morphs from slasher into something else, but that's exactly what I loved about it. And hey, when that guy from the Apple commercials slides down into that basement, that ain't no PC waiting for him down there.
I'll admit it. I'm a horror film junkie. If you've ever wondered who goes to see those miserable films of January, it's me. I could go on with a list of scary favorites all night. But you've got more doors to knock on tomorrow, and popcorn balls to get ready before the kids show up at sunset. So get to the couch and get in some thrills while it's still officially Scare Season.
You have my permission (and encouragement) to scream.
Tom "Dr. No" Coburn has a really strange concept of governing. From blocking unemployment benefits to a National Women's History Museum to the authorization bill that would allow the Haitian relief already pledged to be released, Coburn is doing his damnedest to make sure government does do anything.
And if he has is way, he'll keep working to undo what's already been done.
Senate Republicans should repeatedly offer bills to repeal health reform even if it's in vain, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) said Tuesday.
Coburn acknowledged efforts to repeal the legislation, or even defund it, were unlikely to be successful as long as President Obama is in the White House, but said making repeated efforts to dismantle the legislation is the best political strategy for the GOP.
"I think the best strategy is to call for a repeal bill and pass that bill," Coburn told a group of conservative bloggers. "And if you can't pass it the first time, then offer it again the next month, and offer it again the next month."
Because it's not like there's anything that the Senate should actually be doing with it's time to actually make government function or anything. Between Darryl Issa's promise of never-ending investigations to Coburn's promise of ongoing Senate gridlock promises another miserable two years of national politics, should Republicans get the House. So GOTV. Do whatever you can to help keep that from happening.
The next Senator from Florida is almost certainly going to be Marco Rubio. Kendrick Meek and Charlie Crist split the center-left of the electorate and spent most of their time in the campaign beating each other up, while Rubio, unchallenged, coasted into[...]
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It's only fitting that here in A-merry-ca two comedians held a very successful rally on the hallowed grounds of the Washington Mall today. They mocked the folks on both extremes of the A-merry-can ideological spectrum, and they exposed the A-merry-can political debate for the fraudulent discordant charade it has become. Throw in my home-boyz, The Roots, and folks like Tony Bennett, and you had a party. I suspect that is why many folks went in the first place.- For the party. Which is all good as far as I am concerned.
While political pimps like Glenn Beckkk continue to exploit the fears of a certain segment of the population, cable television continues to show us their fears 24/7 and rake in advertising dollars along the way. What a country! Of course it helps if Beckk and his ilk are being paid by some of the same cable television networks to keep the fear going. The irony is, of course, that the organizers of today's rally were also created and packaged to the A-merry-can people by cable television. I hope the irony wasn't lost on Jon Stewart, and I hope he won't take himself too seriously like the aforementioned Mr. Beckkk.
Still, we needed a rally to "restore sanity." When you have folks writing crap like this, you have to wonder how many rallies it will take to purge the insane from among us. With all due respect to Colbert and Stewart; the name of their rally was misleading. It was misleading because these rabid wingnuts with their manufactured anger, which was bought and paid for by corporate interests, were never sane to begin with.
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