Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 9/28/09

post from Daily Kos on 28 September 2009 11:36:05 PM. © Daily Kos

Another Monday in campaign land, with a small handful of new polls over the weekend, as well as some very intriguing news out of the forthcoming special election in upstate New York is which it is now conceivable that the Democrats could pad their House majority.

AZ-Gov: Rasmussen Confirms Democratic Lead Over GOP Incumbent
Rasmussen polls the Grand Canyon State, and confirms last week's finding by PPP. In a trial heat between GOP incumbent Governor Jan Brewer and Democratic state Attorney General Terry Goddard, Goddard has a seven-point edge (42-35). In the event that Brewer takes a walk rather than seeking re-election, Goddard also leads former GOP Governor Fife Symington. Here, Rasmussen diverges from PPP. PPP had Goddard destroying Symington by over twenty points. For Rasmussen, the margin is seven points (44-37).

OH-Gov: Rasmussen Gives Kasich Lead Over Incumbent
On Friday, we pointed out that Rasmussen had deviated from other pollsters in putting Republican Rob Portman leading both Democratic hopefuls in the open-seat U.S. Senate race in Ohio. Late Friday, they released their gubernatorial numbers in the state, with the same favorable trend for the GOP present there, as well. According to Ras, it is a toss-up, with Republican John Kasich up a single point over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland (46-45). A quartet of polls conducted earlier in the summer gave Strickland a lead, ranging from two to ten points.

CA-Gov: Democrats Favored To Pick Up Open-Seat Governorship
Rasmussen, having shown Barbara Boxer leading outside of the margin of error in the Senate race, also has polled the gubernatorial race to replace outgoing GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Here we see an interesting dichotomy developing on the Democratic side. In general election tests against the trio of GOP hopefuls, state Attorney General Jerry Brown has comfortable leads over all three of them (the leads ranging from 9-13 points), while San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom actually narrowly trails all three of them (the deficits ranging from 4-6 points). Rather ironically, Steve Poizner, the lone statewide elected official waving the Republican banner, is both the least well-known and the least-liked among the GOP field.

MI-Gov: Curious New Poll Leaves More Questions Than Answers
A few days after the GOP-friendly Mitchell Research gave Attorney General Mike Cox a double-digit lead over Democratic Lt. Governor John Cherry, we get a new poll from Inside Michigan Politics (PDF file) that is strange, to say the least. The general election numbers show Cherry narrowly trailing 2006 GOP Senate nominee Michael Bouchard (41-38), and with a modest lead over businessman Rick Snyder (42-34). Two other aspects of the poll are incredibly peculiar, however. First of all, they omit any general election trial heat for Cherry with Republican Congressman Peter Hoekstra, who has been either leading or in second place in virtually every poll conducted to date. Second, they decide to throw in a third-party option for the most likely general election trial heat of all: Cox vs. Cherry. They added Democratic state House Speaker Andy Dillon as an Independent candidate, which is a bit bizarre, since Dillon is not yet running for Governor, would be likely to do so in the Democratic primary, in any event. For what it's worth, that particular trial heat showed Cox at 35%, Cherry at 33%, and Dillon well behind at 13%.

CO-Sen/CO-Gov: GOP Pollster Sees Clear Leaders in State Primaries
Though a private firm devoted to Republican clients, the Tarrance Group has enjoyed a decent reputation over the years, and has seemed, on the surface, to be lacking an absurd ideological bias in their numbers. They polled Colorado last week, on behalf of their clients the Colorado Policy Institute, and found some clear leaders in the forthcoming primaries. Not surprisingly, the most competitive primary is the high-profile battle for the Democratic nomination to the U.S. Senate. Appointed incumbent Michael Bennet has a double-digit lead at the outset over former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (41-27). Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the results are a bit more lopsided. Former Lt. Governor Jane Norton has a thirty-point edge over little known Weld County DA Ken Buck (45-15) on the Senate side. Meanwhile, in the battle to take on incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter (who sports a 47/43 approval spread in the poll), former Congressman Scott McInnis has a sizeable 40-13 lead over his former protege, state legislator Josh Penry.

RI-Gov: Lynch Staffing Up For 2010 Gubernatorial Run
In what promises to be one of the more interesting races for Governor in 2010, Rhode Island's Democratic Attorney General, Patrick Lynch, is staffing up for a run for governor next year. He hired Mike Mikus, whose claim to fame was helping Jason Altmire achieve a double-digit drubbing of Melissa Hart when Hart attempted to seize back her western Pennsylvania Congressional seat last year. Ironically, given the strong Democratic leanings of the state, the GOP has held this governorship for fifteen years. Complicating things for Democrats in 2010 is the existence of Lincoln Chafee, the popular moderate-to-liberal former Republican Senator who is attempting a political comeback by running for Governor as an Independent in 2010.

DE-Sen: Beau Biden Returns From Middle East, Senate Bid Next?
Over the weekend, Delaware state Attorney General, Vice-Presidential progeny, and possible 2010 Senate candidate Beau Biden arrived home from Iraq, where had been deployed with his National Guard unit for close to twelve months. Biden must be officially released from active duty before he can even contemplate his next move, which may include a return to his office as A.G. Republican Congressman Mike Castle seems content to wait out the junior Biden. Rumors were rampant throughout the summer that Biden's entrance into the race might dissuade Castle from doing so, and vice versa.

KY-Sen: Mongiardo Caught On Tape In Profane Rant Against Beshear
A great catch this evening by James L. at Swing State: There is apparently a YouTube circulating with audio of Kentucky Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo ripping his political boss, Governor Steve Beshear. Among his more pointed comments was one that Beshear would be remembered as the state's "worst governor" and saying that the only difference between Beshear and GOP predecessor Ernie Fletcher was that the former "hasn't blown up yet". He also does not sound like a man with fire in the belly to be a Senator, saying "I am this close to saying 'f**k it all'. I don't need this job. I don't need the U.S. Senate." Mongiardo's team is claiming that the audio has been edited (although that wouldn't explain some of the less savory sentences, unless they chopped up individual words like a ransom notice).

NV-03: GOP Loses Top Candidate, Might Gain A Different One
For the moment, the GOP in Nevada is scrambling, after Republican banker John Guedry abruptly dropped his bid to compete for the suburban 3rd district seat in Congress against freshman Democrat Dina Titus. Republicans might get bailed out, however, as their entreaties might have hit home with their "plan B" candidate. The millisecond Guedry dropped out, apparently, party leaders began working on state legislator Joe Heck, who is (at present) a candidate for Governor. On Friday night, Heck's campaign manager seemed to make clear that Heck was not switching races. Today, however, Heck refused to rule it out, and said it was something that required the obligatory family discussion. Stay tuned.

NY-23: Scozzafava's Bad Day As GOP Stalwarts Abandon GOP Candidate
Any hopes that the NRCC and the local Republican leadership had about coalescing support around their appointed nominee to replace longtime GOP incumbent John McHugh get dashed with each passing day. First off, the right-wing activists at the Club for Growth decided to foresake the GOP nominee, state legislator DeDe Scozzafava, in favor of right-wing Independent candidate Doug Hoffman. Their press release endorsing Hoffman said, in part:

Club for Growth PAC today endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District. Hoffman, a Republican, decided to run after local GOP leaders hand-picked liberal Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as their nominee.

"After months of runaway spending, bailouts, and record deficits, the last thing we need in Congress is another rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi and the liberal Democrats," said Club President Chris Chocola. "Doug Hoffman is the only candidate in this race who will stand up for taxpayers and fight to protect our freedoms in Washington."

Another interesting nugget from their private poll released last week: given the choice between a Conservative Party candidate, "a liberal Democrat", or a "liberal Republican", voters in the CfG poll preferred the Conservative Party candidate, but the "liberal Democrat" (note: few see Dem nominee Bill Owens that way) came in only a few points behind (36-31, with 18% for the "liberal Republican").

It wasn't just the extremists at the Club for Growth not showing love for Scozzafava. Former GOP Senator and presidential aspirant Fred Thompson also endorsed Hoffman over Scozzafava.

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-Wrap-Up,-9-28-09

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Vatican: we may be bad, but others are worse

post from AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth on 28 September 2009 11:36:00 PM. © AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth

Interesting strategy being promoted these days. For starters, it remains questionable how serious they really are about "cleaning their own house." The Vatican initially tried blaming the victims in Boston and explaining it away as an American problem. ("You know how those Americans are with lawsuits", for example.) But of course the problem was everywhere including all over Europe, despite the initial assertions to the contrary. They continue to fight back against it and even in Ireland where they did an extensive study, the church only agreed to the investigation by keeping names out of it.

There's very little to suggest any honest cooperation on their part which is probably why the new strategy is to shrug their shoulders and say "well yeah, but everyone else is worse." Great people at the Vatican.

In a defiant and provocative statement, issued following a meeting of the UN human rights council in Geneva, the Holy See said the majority of Catholic clergy who committed such acts were not paedophiles but homosexuals attracted to sex with adolescent males.

The statement, read out by Archbishop Silvano Tomasi, the Vatican's permanent observer to the UN, defended its record by claiming that "available research" showed that only 1.5%-5% of Catholic clergy were involved in child sex abuse.

He also quoted statistics from the Christian Scientist Monitor newspaper to show that most US churches being hit by child sex abuse allegations were Protestant and that sexual abuse within Jewish communities was common.

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ut-others-are.html

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Open Thread

post from Crooks and Liars on 28 September 2009 11:30:55 PM. © Crooks and Liars

going rouge_cb598.png

Mrs. Palin, it MUST be a typo: your publisher's press release says your upcoming book is called "Going Rogue." That can't be true...that's a French word. Whoops, so's "rouge." Oh, whatEVER!

But why did your publisher let us know the title during "Banned Books Week" instead of "Remaindered Books Week"? Is it time to quit your publicist?

Open thread below...

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http://crooksandliars.com/bluegal/open-thread-249

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Today's Right

post from Talking Points Memo on 28 September 2009 11:16:00 PM. © Talking Points Memo

There's been a lot of talk recently about whether the Drudge Report -- such an undeniable link-driving powerhouse for most of the last decade -- has lost its edge and relevance. And I've wondered whether this is why the site (not sure who's actually[...]

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p

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Monday Stuff

post from The Liberal Doomsayer on 28 September 2009 11:15:00 PM. © The Liberal Doomsayer

To do something on behalf of the public option (which is being considered during the back-and-forth over the "blow job to the insurance industry" otherwise known as the Baucus bill - hey, complain about that potty mouth Bill Maher, who rightly characterized the bill as such), click here.

(And as always, the "Republican-lite" wing of Baucus, Conrad, Mark Pryor, Tom Carper, etc. aren't giving Dean the time of day - a "huge backlash" without the P.O. indeed)...

...and just as a reminder, here is what we're up against (is it my imagination, or does Bob (Screw The UAW) Corker ring the sanctimony bell as loud as Joe "The Last Honest Man" Lieberman here?)...

...and I know this is news, and I usually stay out of legal matters since it's not a specialty of mine, and it's not for me to say what should happen one way or the other, but I just think the verdict of the victim, who has expressed forgiveness (and my guess is that it's because she's tired of living with the whole sideshow) should be taken into account (this of course is from "Chinatown" - a fine film from perhaps U.S. film's greatest era, IMHO...is it too weird of a twist, after watching this, to know that Polanski committed his act 31 years ago in Nicholson's house?)...

...and RIP Lucy Vodden (here - I read somewhere long ago that the Fab Four weren't happy about the movie at first, but they "changed their tune" when it started making money...also, hopefully this will focus more attention on lupus).

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http://liberaldoomsayer.blogspot.com/2009/09/monday-stuff_28.html

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So-Called Democrat Gene Locke Solicits
RepublicansLocke Seeking To Trick And Bamboozle Black & Republican Voters

post from Texas Liberal on 28 September 2009 11:05:25 PM. © Texas Liberal

Houston politics blogger Martha Griffin has a post up this evening at her blog Musings reporting that Houston Mayoral candidate Gene Locke, a so-called Democrat, has solicited Republican Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman to annoy citizens of Houston with robocalls.From Ms. Griffin’s post—”This is the same Beverly Kaufman who is on record as being against the pre-clearance portion of [...]

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C&L's Late Nite Music Club - The 50 State
Strategy with The Queers (NH)

post from Crooks and Liars on 28 September 2009 11:00:29 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Title: Punk Rock GirlsArtist: The Queers
video details and more

God bless Portsmouth, NH's The Queers. Influenced by The Beach Boys and The Ramones, and pretty much nothing else, Joe Queer and his mates have ignored every fleeting "cool" trend in punk rock since their formation in 1984 and focused squarely on light-hearted and fun pop-punk for the rest of us. Don't ever change, boys.

Every Monday night, C&L's Late Nite Music Club showcases an act from every state, alphabetically by state, as part of LNMC's 50 State Strategy. Know a band or artist that you think is the best in their state? Email suggestions to latenitemusicclub [at] gmail.com. Next week: New Jersey.

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http://lnmc.crooksandliars.com/maxmarginal/cls-late-nite-music-club-50-state-st-1
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Late Night: A Passel of Petrified and Pathetic
Pinheads

It seems the conservative howler monkeys are just warming up.[...]

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Why We Need Health Care Reform

While our well and fully insured Senators and Congressman sit around in Washington arguing about health care reform, real people are going without a doctor's care -- unless they are lucky enough (with "luck" being a relative term here) to live in Houston:

Over the weekend, thousands of Texans attended what is being called the “largest free clinic ever held in the United States” to get health care they otherwise could not afford. ABC-13, a local Houston station, reported that the event showed that there is an “epidemic” of people without proper health coverage in Texas:

“My foot was turned upside down,” said patient Lillian Beverly. Beverly has had trouble walking since she took a bad fall three months ago. “I really don’t have the money to keep going to doctors and doctors,” she said.

Kevin Braggs is worried about his diabetes. “I’ve been without insurance for six months,” said Braggs.

And Vicki Robinson wants to keep her son’s asthma under control, but she says it’s difficult. “My husband’s lost his job. We’ve gone through our savings,” said Robinson.

And nine-year-old Kempton knows it. “We can’t afford medicine,” he said.

And as one of the doctor's seeing patients at the clinic said:

We had no idea the overwhelming response that we would have, the cries for help from the city of Houston and the state of Texas from people who have fallen off the truck. These by the way are real people who have jobs who just can't afford health insurance or have gotten too far behind to keep up with their health problems.

Seeing this kind of thing really highlights how ridiculous it is for politicians to be whining about long waits for appointments or the rationing of health care, or the idea of Democrats kowtowing to Olympia Snowe on a "trigger" option to kick in years down the road.

These people and millions like them need health care reform now.