Daily Kos Elections liveblog thread #4

post from Daily Kos on 28 February 2012 09:21:41 PM. © Daily Kos

Results: CNN (AZ, MI) | Google (AZ, MI)

6:25 PM PT (David Jarman): Things are starting to gel in Michigan. With 33% reporting according to CNN, it's 41 Romney, 38 Santorum, 12 Paul, 7 Gingrich. That closely matches the exits we've seen so far. Santorum is winning most of the state's landmass, if you look at the map... but Romney is running up the score in the 3 Detroit metro-area counties (especially Wayne, which is where Detroit is).

6:27 PM PT (David Jarman): Romney's stance on bankrupting Detroit seems to not to have irritated too many Detroiters, for some reason... he's winning Wayne County (the state's most populous county) 51-28, compared with winning it 44-26 vs. John McCain in 2008. That's how he's slightly overperforming his 2008 numbers.

6:30 PM PT:

The Kennedy thing killed Santorum with Catholics. How ironic...I wonder if he is throwing up now.
— @JohnFeehery via web

6:30 PM PT (David Jarman): The biggest score for Santorum is probably Ottawa County (the deeply conservative suburban county outside Grand Rapids, thanks largely to the large presence there of the ultra-conservative Reformed Church, part of that area's Dutch-American heritage). Romney won this county 35-30 in 2008. Today, he's losing it to Santorum 51-33. This is the part of the state where they were voting for Romney in '08 only because he was more conservative than McCain, not because he was the hometown hero.

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We Got It All for You Right Here

post from Talking Points Memo on 28 February 2012 09:00:51 PM. © Talking Points Memo

When the results start coming in in Michigan, we'll have them right here on our county by county results page. Right here. For the very latest updates of everything that goes down tonight, check out TPMLiveWire. [...]

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Mexico, Colombia & Guatemala discuss drug
legalization

post from US Politics | AMERICAblog News on 28 February 2012 09:00:30 PM. © US Politics | AMERICAblog News

Finally, some sensible discussions about marijuana by national governments in the region. The US military-industrial complex loves war but it's a bad investment for everyone else. The US can't afford this drug war and our neighbors to the south have even fewer resources to waste on this phony war. How many more people have to die and how many billion more needs to be spent until Washington gets it? The Atlantic:

Since Mexico declared its own war against drugs and drug cartels in 2006, over 50,000 civilians, police, journalists, judges, and soldiers have died. Several cartel kingpins have been arrested or killed, but organized crime is as potent as ever, and there's no indication of a significant drop in the volume of narcotics flowing into the United States. And the Mexican state is suffering mightily for its effort. Despite years of training and hundreds of millions of dollars in police and military modernization and professionalization, there are still episodes like Tuesday's jail break in Nuevo Laredo, where prison officials appear to have helped Zetas cartel gunmen kill 44 inmates -- all members of a rival cartel -- and help 30 Zetas escape. It's depressing. In Guatemala, the drug war looks even worse. The Guatemalan national budget for public security is $420 million and its military budget is $160 million. The value of the narcotics smuggled through Guatemala each year is in the range of $40 to 50 billion -- about equal to the national GDP -- and that does not include the money made from smuggling weapons, people, and other contraband. In just three years, it appears that the Sinaloa and the Zetas Mexican cartels have come to control as much as 40 percent of the country's territory. They grow poppy, process cocaine and methamphetamines, and run training camps for their new recruits, who include members of Guatemala's elite special forces unit. Guatemala and other Central American states are understandable worried their drug wars will come to resemble Mexico's, but with far fewer national resources to support the fight, much weaker police and military forces, and far less help from the United States. In 2011, the U.S. gave $180 million to Mexico for military and police assistance, but only $16 million to Guatemala and around $6 million each to Honduras and El Salvador.

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Is everyone ready for the great Leap Day
festivities

post from DownWithTyranny! on 28 February 2012 09:00:29 PM. © DownWithTyranny!

"Poke your eyes, pull your hair, you forgot what clothes to wear." Liz is assaulted for failing to wear the Leap Day-appropriate yellow-and-blue by -- of all, er, people -- Lutz. Jack Donaghy will register astonishment that "the woman who watches all six porn-shop reality shows" has never seen the classic film Leap Dave Williams, apparently the only American suffering such cultural deprivation. Watch the instant-classic "Leap Day" episode of 30 Rock here.

"Leap Day's not a thing." -- Liz Lemon

by Ken

Politics is one of the uncommon fields in which it's not necessarily a godsend for an incoming officeholder to replace what we would call "an easy act to follow." Look how Barack Obama botched the sweet deal of taking the reins from Chimpy the Ex-Prez. Now there would have been a heap of perilous passage to maneuver based just on the interlocking network of cosmically fine messes the Bush regime psychos and thugs go us into, but it didn't help that the new president often seemed to forget that he wasn't the old one.

In other fields the transition should be easy as pie. Replacing Nancy Franklin as TV critic of The New Yorker, for example. This would have been a cushy gig for anyone from Rose the Talking Parrot to that plucky squirrel you watched climb a tree last weekend in the park. I'm still trying to get a fix on Emily, whose writing at New York magazine I'm unfamiliar with, but there's no question that it's an upgrade. How could it not be? (For the record, I see that New Yorker Editor David Remnick told WWD Media in September, "Nancy decided she was tired of writing for a while, and tired of writing about TV I expect, after she catches her breath, she'll begin writing for us again and I dearly hope so." I'll take the high road and refrain from obvious sarcastic comment, but don't let me stop you.)

I bring this up because just as I've been thinking about the amazing stride 30 Rock has maintained in its belatedly begun new season, I stumbled across a February 23 newyorker.com blogpost of Emily's {"In Defense of Liz Lemon"), in which I learned:

Judging from my Twitter feed, there's been a backlash to "30 Rock" this season, particularly the character of Liz Lemon, played by Tina Fey. Here's one example of these anti-Lemon blog posts. [You'll find this link and the following ones onsite. I didn't read them, but you may want to. -- Ed.] Here's another. Here's another. The argument in all these pieces (many by writers I respect) is pretty much the same: "30 Rock" used to be funny, but now it's sour and negative. Liz Lemon was once our heroine -- a sassy, confident, if somewhat neurotic single career lady. Now she's become infantilized and dumb. She behaves as if Jack Donaghy (Alec Baldwin) is her daddy. She doesn't trust her own judgment, she's bad at her job, and there's something awfully misogynist about all this! Liz Lemon is pathetic.

At the outset I had to override my instinctive prejudice against anyone who judges anything by anybody's Twitter feed. Emily went on to write:

Well, I can't get on board the hate train, especially after last week's tour-de-force episode, in which Liz morphed from a crazy old subway lady (every New Yorker's dream: she gets her way at every turn) into Heath Ledger's Joker. Someone needs to speak up for the Lemon, and for the Fey. Because from the beginning Liz Lemon was pathetic. That was what was enthralling, and even revolutionary, about the character. Unlike some other adorkable or slutty-fabulous characters I could name, Liz only superficially resembled the protagonist of a romantic comedy, ready to remove her glasses and be loved. Beneath that, she was something way more interesting: a strange, specific, workaholic, NPR-worshipping, white-guilt-infected, sardonic, curmudgeonly, hyper-nerdy New Yorker. In the first episode, Jack nails her on sight as "a New York third-wave feminist, college-educated, single-and-pretending-to-be-happy-about-it, over-scheduled, undersexed, you buy any magazine that says ?healthy body image' on the cover and every two years you take up knitting for ? a week." Even Liz had to admit he scored a point.

That was why the show worked: it rarely made Liz an empowering role model, although many women certainly identified with her. The show let her be the George Costanza, not the Mary Richards. And, refreshingly, this appeal had little to do with sex or relationships: a lot of it was about her job. Liz was professionally successful, but she was a sellout. . . .

I mostly kind of skimmed the piece, and there's a lot about women's roles on TV that I wouldn't be allowed to comment on in any event, since you can't unless you're a woman, but since I do frequently watch 30 Rock reruns from earlier seasons, I don't think there's any question that Emily has a better grasp of how the character of Liz Lemon began and subsequently evolved than the Twitterers she's taking issue with. For example, later she writes, "That has always been one of the most radical things about ?30 Rock,? the way it has continually punctured Liz?s image of herself as a spunky brunette underdog." And later:

And the thing is, Liz?s confrontations with her worst qualities have actually strengthened her. That?s what so odd about the backlash. This season, Liz is happier than ever?and for once, she?s rejecting Jack?s influence, finding her own bliss, embracing her oddball nature, going on the Oprah-style vacations she feels like taking."

Kenneth the decommissioned NBC page does his rendition of Leap Day William. We will find out that he's apparently not wearing a bald cap.

I'm not sure that Tina Fey would express quite such a pluckily optimistic view of Liz's present-day situation; she seems to be enjoying piling on, perhaps relishing the ways in which her fictional alter-ego has stumbled down her Road Not Taken. But the piece is still worth a skim.

As for the sublime "Leap Day" episode, there isn't much I can say that wouldn't detract from rather than add to the pleasures. It's true that Leap Day has been featured all over the TV dial -- or rather the cable and satellite program guide. But nobody nailed it the way the 30 Rock people did, making Liz Lemon the only noncelebrant in a world gone Leap Day-mad. These days the show's writing is so thorough, intricate, and dazzling, and the characters are so ingrained in the writers' consciousness, that there really doesn't appear to be any separation between writing and acting.

Sure, the celebrity cameo roles can become gimmicky, and this episode was studded with them, but they're usually well done, and I thought one of them from this episode, the very last, with John Cullum at his most ineffably charming, dressed as -- what else? -- Leap Day William, who then reappears after the final commercial break as -- dare we imagine? -- the real Leap Day William:

"Well, I guess we all learned something tonight, about love, friendship, about taking chances, about the true meaning of Leap Day. But these lessons aren't just good for every four years. No-o-o! They're good every year, because we should live every day as if it's Leap Day, and every Leap Day as if it's your last. Oh, and if you should ever see an old man in a blue suit bustin' out of the middle of the ocean, take the time to say, "Howdy." It might just be [takes off his hat] worth your while [opens his mouth and reveals a mouthful of short but fanglike teeth.]"
#

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Colbert Weighs in on Romney and Santorum Trying
to Connect With Voters Ahead of Michigan Primary

post from Crooks and Liars on 28 February 2012 09:00:04 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Colbert Weighs in on Romney and Santorum Trying to Connect With Voters Ahead of Michigan Primary

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Stephen Colbert weighed in on the prospects of Michigan voters connecting with GOP presidential candidates ahead of their primary race and the efforts by the front runners to do so, whether it be Mitt Romney speaking before an empty stadium, talking about "the trees that are the right height" or Mittens talking about his "great friends" that are NASCAR team owners, or Rick Santorum calling President Obama "a snob" for wanting Americans to go to college and "indoctrinating" our children.

I've said it before about Jon Stewart and I'll say it again here. As long as we've got this current debacle which is the GOP presidential primary race, both Stewart and Colbert aren't going to be running out of material any time soon.

It's really pathetic when on a daily basis you've got to wonder if the headlines coming out of their campaign appearances are real, or something The Onion published as a parody.

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Daily Kos Elections liveblog thread #3

post from Daily Kos on 28 February 2012 08:55:52 PM. © Daily Kos

Big night tonight -- while Arizona will be an easy victory for Mitt Romney, Michigan is neck-and-neck. If Romney wins Michigan handily, it'll mark the start of the end of this primary campaign. If he wins narrowly, he can claim a moral victory. But if he loses, the race will continue in chaos at least through Super Tuesday.

Results: CNN (AZ, MI) | Google (AZ, MI)

5:57 PM PT (David Nir): There seems to be a weird error in the AP's data. For some reason, Jackson & Kalamazoo Counties are both reporting identical vote totals, update after update.

5:59 PM PT:

we're currently waiting to see if romney can pull a win outta michigan. thats like asking if bill clinton could win arkansas. #alreadylosing
— @owillis via web

6:00 PM PT: Arizona goes Romney, to no one's surprise. Now let's get back to Michigan.

6:02 PM PT (David Nir): Big jump in vote reporting at CNN, now up to 19%. Romney takes the lead, 41-39.

6:03 PM PT (David Nir): Backing out the exit polls, we get: Romney 40, Santorum 37, Paul 13, Gingrich 7.

6:09 PM PT (David Nir): CNN's now up to 23% reporting, and Romney's hovering very close to the exit polls, with a 41-38 lead over Santorum.

6:12 PM PT (David Nir): So now Romney's doing about 5% better than he did in 2008. He won Michigan with 39% that year, so that would mean 44% this time. That actually suggests the race might get tighter, since the exits think he'll get 40% this year.

6:12 PM PT:

Striking phenomenon in the MI exits: Santo winning the most conservative and most liberal groups, while Romney winning those in b/w
— @mmurraypolitics via TweetDeck

6:15 PM PT (David Nir): Michigan awards all but two delegates by congressional district, and right now, Romney is on track to get maybe 6 of the 14 districts (the ones in Wayne/Oakland/Macomb, plus MI-08, in Ingham/Livingston).

6:15 PM PT:

I wonder if the vote is close in #miprimary and Santorum needs a lawyer for a recount if he'll pick an attorney who attended college.
— @DavidCornDC via web

6:18 PM PT (David Nir): In case anyone cares, the Arizona exit polls back out to: Romney 44, Santorum 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 12.

6:22 PM PT (Kaili Joy Gray): Liveblogging continues here.

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The Equality Rides

post from Everyday Citizen on 28 February 2012 08:51:36 PM. © Everyday Citizen

Starting this March, the Christian LGBT rights group Soulforce will be launching its fifth annual[...]

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Daily Kos Elections liveblog thread #2

Results: CNN (AZ, MI) | Google (AZ, MI)

5:33 PM PT:

So Sheldon Adelson reinvested w/Newt Gingrich to hear stories about trees? #buyersremorse
— @RalstonFlash via TweetDeck

5:37 PM PT (David Nir): CNN seems to be running a bit ahead of the AP, putting Santorum up 1% with 6% reporting.

5:40 PM PT (David Nir): Compared to his 2008 performance in the counties which have reported so far, Romney is actually doing 16% better than he did back then. But I caution: These are almost all small counties, and the total vote reporting is small at this point.

5:43 PM PT: Now Ron Paul is yelling at us on the television. With any luck, the networks will cut away from him soon. But I'll note this -- that dial focus group in Ohio is at least paying attention to Paul, not flatlining like Gingrich.

5:45 PM PT (David Nir): There's very little reporting from this turf so far, but Romney is underperforming in the Grand Rapids area. Trailing by double digits in big counties (Kent, Ottawa) that he won last time. He's also underperforming in the middle-class Detroit burbs. Leading by single digits where he needs to lead by double digits. (But he's overperforming in Wayne.)

5:46 PM PT (David Nir): One other data point: Romney's actually leading in Kalamazoo (40-36), with 7% reporting, which is one of the few big counties that he lost to McCain in 2008 (31-37).

5:51 PM PT (David Nir): 27% of Romney's votes so far come from the 3 big counties of the Detroit area (Wayne, Oakland, Macomb). Only 17% of Santorum's votes come from them. Could have implications for delegate totals, which are awarded by congressional district.

5:51 PM PT: The final poll composite of Michigan:

Romney 37.3
Santorum 36.6
Paul 10.7
Gingirch 8.8

As of right now, Paul is right around that mark while Gingrich is 2 points back at 7%. Santorum and Romney appear to be splitting the undecided vote almost evenly. But of course, it's still very early.

5:52 PM PT (Jed Lewison): Mitt Romney can't do anything right:

Bartender at the hotel where Mitt Romney is staying outside Detroit: "John Kerry stayed here too, remember?"
— @kasie via Twitter for iPad

5:53 PM PT (David Nir): Recalibrating our spreadsheet a bit, Romney is still outperforming 2008, but by much less than we'd previously thought. He's doing 4% better than he did in areas reporting so far.

5:54 PM PT (Jed Lewison): I tuned into Fox briefly, and it was like watching a funeral service. O'Reilly and Krauthammer were as sad and somber as sad and somber can be.

5:55 PM PT (David Nir): We're about to hit the 10% mark reporting statewide, and this is when things start to get a bit more baked in. It's Santo 40.2, Rom 39.2, Paul 10.8, Ging 6.9%.

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Get the Best "Forever Stocks" on the Market in
one Single Investment

If you think the main impediment to solid long-term investment returns is lousy stock picking, then think again. Yes, there are many factors that can hinder investment returns — missing out on fast-growing IPOs, having an advisor who steers you wrong, high fund expenses or taxes, an uncertain economy — but in my experience, the biggest threat to solid long-term returns is volatility. Extreme fluctuations and instability in the market are so dangerous because they weaken investors' resolve, causing many to panic and "sell low." In such cases, they tend to pull out of stocks completely and refuse to get back in until they're absolutely sure the market is recovering, which could take weeks, months or even . . . → Read More: Get the Best "Forever Stocks" on the Market in one Single Investment

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Michigan and Arizona Primary Live Blog Update:
Romney Wins Arizona and Michigan

Republican presidential primaries are taking place in Michigan and Arizona today. While Mitt Romney is expect to easily win the Arizona primary, the polling of Michigan shows that the race there is incredibly close. Arizona assigns its delegates[...]

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