As the East Coast braces for a possible direct hit from Hurricane Sandy, meteorologists are closely watching the storm’s “freak” formation. They’re calling it “unprecedented and bizarre,” a “perfect storm,” and a “frankenstorm” that could cause historic storm surges, last for multiple days, and cause over a billion dollars in damage. After hitting Jamaica and [...]
Actor Max von Essen is currently playing the role of Magaldi in the Broadway revival of Evita, and this week he published openly a letter he wrote to a friend on Facebook who had expressed his support for Mitt Romney. Von Essen is gay, and so he wanted those connected to him to know that [...]
Since he came into office, Republicans have consistently attacked President Obama for supposedly being anti-business. As ThinkProgress noted last week, the data shows that this charge is nonsense. In fact, as the financial website Motley Fool noted today, President Obama is far and away the best president for corporate profits since 1900: Even if corporate [...]
Barack Obama rallies the troops in Cleveland yesterday.After several days of incremental gains for President Barack Obama, today's snap polls seem to be all about noise. The latest numbers, plus the amount of movement compared to yesterday:
RAND is not a traditional poll, but the online tracking of a large group of people over time. It's unproven methodology, to say the least. Of these, only Gallup and ABC/WaPo call cell phones. Looks like just float within the MoE on all of these. Romney leads three. Obama leads three. They are tied in two. I think it's safe to say that the race has stabilized at the national level.
Ro-mentum ended around October 11th, the date of the VP Biden-Ryan debate and reversed around October 16th, Debate #2. Now the median EV expectation is at a plateau around Obama 293 EV, Romney 245 EV.The big lead Obama gained over the summer gave him the padding he needed to ride out his first debate problem, and he's tied to trailing by a point in the aggregate of the irrelevant national polls despite problems with overly restrictive likely voter screens.
Still, there's an important truth in those restrictive likely voter screens?their voters are more committed to voting than ours. Their big advantage is that the likeliest voters?wealthier, whiter, older?also happen to be the biggest components of their base. Younger and browner voters are less likely to turn out.
So take those RV-LV differences as a lesson about what GOTV is all about?if only those "certain" to vote turn out, it'll be a coin flip at the national level, and the states will be closer than they need to be. If we get those who will "probably" vote, we're looking at a solid national victory, comfortable margins in the most important states, and a more robust Electoral College victory by picking up the tightest states like Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
I'm all about bigger victory margins, and so should you. So please help get out the vote with our GOTV partners at Worker's Voice.
The Princeton Election Consortium, run by Sam Wang, actually outperformed 538 in 2008. If you aren't familiar with the site you definitely want to check it out. I think you'll like @SamWangPhD's predictions
Remember how Mitt Romney hurt himself in Iowa by coming out against subsidies for wind power? Well, now that it's 11 days before the election and he desperately needs to win Iowa, he's apparently having a change of heart, because today he said he would support subsidies for renewables:
We're going to support nuclear and renewables, but we'll phase out subsidies once an industry is on its feet.Now this might not actually be a flip-flop, because Romney doesn't specifically say that he supports wind energy tax breaks. Instead, he goes with a vague pledge to support "renewables." But make no mistake: He wants Iowans to at least think he supports wind energy tax breaks.
The only question here is whether Romney is making a crass eleventh hour political flip-flop ... or if he simply wants people to think he's flip-flopped. Maybe we could get an answer if he actually took questions from the media, but that's not happening anytime soon. Actually, it probably doesn't even matter, because if there's one thing we should know by now about Mitt Romney, the only thing that you can truly believe about him is that he'll say whatever he thinks he needs to say in order to get what he wants to get.
Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin are not alone. At least 15 U.S. Senate candidates think the state should have control over a woman's private health concerns with her doctor about her body, family planning and the right to determine whether she must bear[...]
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President Obama, using the bully pulpit.
On Thursday, President Barack Obama endorsed marriage equality in the three states where it's on the ballot: Maine, Maryland and Washington.
"While the president does not weigh in on every single ballot measure in every state, the president believes in treating everyone fairly and equally, with dignity and respect," according to a statement in Seattle by Paul Bell, press secretary for Obama's campaign in Washington and Oregon.
The state goes on to explicitly urge a yes vote for Washington state Referendum 74, which would allow same-sex couples to marry.
Nearly identical endorsement statements were issued in support of similar initiatives on the Nov. 6 ballot in Maine and Maryland.
Media have dubbed the hurricane barreling toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast a “Frankenstorm.” But despite the hysteria surrounding Hurricane Sandy, not one major newspaper has reported the scientifically established link that carbon pollution fuels more extreme weather. In the last week, Sandy has been mentioned in at least 94 stories in major newspapers. Yet a [...]
From the pros to college to high school, football players across the country have donned pink uniform accessories (and sometimes even pink uniforms) to honor Breast Cancer Awareness Month. In the National Football League, players are required to wear pink accessories for the first week of October, and the gloves, towels, and wristbands are optional [...]