Meet Renee: A 47 Percenter Whose Life Was Turned
Around By Programs Romney Denigrated

post from ThinkProgress on 25 September 2012 06:05:24 PM. © ThinkProgress

Renee Fleming is a mother and grandmother who has spent most of her 54 years living on the streets of Brooklyn, except when she’s been in prison. But the last time she went in, she found a helping hand from Providence House, a New York-based charity that visits women in prison and helps re-unite them [...]

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Feds Investigate Explosion In Indiana Candidate's
Mailbox

post from TPMMuckraker on 25 September 2012 06:01:39 PM. © TPMMuckraker

A small explosion of some kind occurred Monday afternoon in a mailbox outside the home of Indiana Democratic congressional candidate Brendan Mullen.

A law enforcement official told TPM on Tuesday that authorities are investigating a spate of incidents involving similar explosions. Four such explosions have occurred in and around Granger, Ind., where Mullen lives, in the last 24 hours, according to David Coulson, a spokesperson for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF).

Coulson said the St. Joseph's County Sheriff's Department is leading the investigation.

"We're assisting in any way we can," Coulson said, referring to ATF.

Mullen is running in Indiana's 2nd congressional district. His spokesperson Andy Reynolds told TPM the incident occurred between 4:45 p.m. and 5 p.m. on Monday. Mullen, his campaign finance director, and an intern heard the explosion, and went outside to see what had happened. Several neighbors also left their homes in response to the noise. According to Reynolds, both Mullen and his financer director spotted a black car driving away "out of corner of their eye[s]."

Reynolds said that Mullen then "spoke with the police, they came and checked it out," and that local authorities later contacted the ATF and the FBI. But he noted that at "this point it's more of a precautionary measure."

"We certainly hope that it's not a politically motivated thing," Reynolds said.

Calls to the St. Joseph County Sheriff's Office and the FBI were not immediately returned.

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Release the Hounds!!!

post from Talking Points Memo on 25 September 2012 06:01:12 PM. © Talking Points Memo

Dems release the hounds as final deadline passes for Akin to get out of the race. [...]

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DCCC Targeting And Expediture Strategies Just Do
Not Add Up

post from DownWithTyranny! on 25 September 2012 06:00:42 PM. © DownWithTyranny!

Chances are slim that you saw Shira Toeplitz's Roll Call post yesterday, Triage Looms Over Campaigns. Pure Beltway hackishness... from someone who can do better. The idea is that the all-knowing and all-powerful heads of the NRCC and DCCC take on their shoulders the onerous task of deciding who's going to win and who's going to lose and then make the tough decisions about who to back financially. Like so much of Roll Call it sounds like it was put together by the publicists of the DCCC and NRCC. Very large sums of money are already being allocated and reallocated but, according to this story, only for the purest and most mathematical of reasons.

In the coming weeks, the national party committees will decide which races are deemed winnable and merit their resources-- resources Members themselves donated and helped raise-- and which should be abandoned.

...Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shifted a week's worth of airtime from Rep. Larry Kissell's (D-N.C.) uphill re-election bid to target Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.). House Democrats did not cut off Kissell completely, but the move signals that the DCCC believes its funds are better spent on other races.

There's more of that to come in October, and it won't be pretty.

The DCCC reserved $61.7 million in airtime across 41 districts through Election Day. The NRCC reserved less airtime, $43.8 million, and is currently on the air in 35 districts.

Those reservations will shift frequently between districts as parties cross non-competitive or hopeless races off their lists.
Currently, committee staffs are poring over data daily, including polling, finance reports and media buys, to determine the state of every race in lengthy "around the world" meetings.

"The overriding question is, 'Can we win?'" said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), a former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman in 2008 and 2010. "You have to allocate resources to maximize the number of seats you win-- and that does require some tough decisions."

In the 2010 cycle the DCCC spent $163,582,280. These were the big bets these dispassionate statisticians made-- the 29 races where they spent a minimum of a million dollars on Independent Expenditures. These were all for TV and radio ads opposing the following Republicans:

? Rick Crawford (AR-01) on behalf of Blue Dog challenger Chad Causey- $1,771,179

? Robert Dold (IL-10) on behalf of New Dem challenger Dan Seals- $1,746,826

? Jaime Beutler (WA-03) on behalf of New Dem challenger Denny Heck- $1,728,127

? Harold Johnson (NC-08) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. Larry Kissell- $1,705,393

? Tim Burns (PA-12) on behalf of ultra-reactionary Rep. Marc Critz-,$1,609,853

? Keith Fimian (VA-11) on behalf of New Dem Rep. Gerry Connolly- $1,605,028

? Andy Harris (MD-01) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. Frank Kratovil- $1,529,305

? Bob Gibbs (OH-18) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. Zach Space- $1,512,697

? Jim Renacci (OH-16) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. John Boccieri- $1,449,105

? Jeff Perry (MA-10) on behalf of challenger Bill Keating $1,433,412

? David Rivera (FL-25) on behalf of challenger Joe Garcia- $1,422,235

? Martha Roby (AL-02) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. Bobby Bright- $1,411,243

? Tim Walberg (MI-07) on behalf of New Dem Rep. Mark Schauer- $1,388,063

? Joe Heck (NV-03) on behalf of New Dem Rep. Dina Titus- $1,382,353

? Todd Young (IN-09) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. Baron Hill- $1,376,745

? Dan Benishek (MI-01) on behalf of conservative challenger Jason Allen-$1,319,440

? Rep. Charles Djou (HI-01) on behalf of New Dem challenger Colleen Hanabusa- $1,304,284

? Randy Hultgren (IL-14) on behalf of New Dem Rep. Bill Foster- $1,303,014

? David McKinley (WV-01) on behalf of rabid Blue Dog challenger Mike Oliviero- $1,264,732

? Vicky Hartzler (MO-04) on behalf of New Dem Rep. Ike Skelton- $1,247,956

? Scott Bruun (OR-05) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schader- $1,247,472

? Scott Tipton (CO-03) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. John Salazar- $1,192,722

? Mick Mulvaney (SC-05) on behalf of New Dem Rep. John Spratt- $1,124,027

? David Schweikert (AZ-05) on behalf of Blue Dog Rep. Harry Mitchell- $1,094,545

? Bobby Schilling (IL-17) on behalf of progressive Rep. Phil Hare- $1,067,806

? Paul Gosar (AZ-01) on behalf of New Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick- $1,056,845

? David Harmer (CA-11) on behalf of Rep. Jerry McNerney- $1,031,192

? Sean Duffy (WI-07) on behalf of New Dem challenger Julie Lassa- $1,017,175

? Richard Hanna (NY-24) on behalf of New Dem Rep. Michael Arcuri- $1,008,039

There were another 26 Republicans the DCCC spent between half a million and a million on and the patterns are identical to the ones above-- as are the catastrophic rates of losses. They spent an awful lot of money and won 7 of the 29 top races, a dismal performance. Of the 29 races by the end of the cycle Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and Real Clear Politics had all rated the #1 race the DCCC spent on, Blue Dog Chad Causey's "Leans Republican." Of the 29 races, Real Clear Politics had rated 17 Leans Republican" and 12 as "Tossup." Perhaps Roll Call should have asked the DCCC to justify that kind of spending on that kind of record of losers. And if they claim they just do it by the math... maybe some remedial courses are in order... for addition, subtraction, multiplication and division.
At nine this evening (PT) we're going to take one of those contested districts from 2010 and catch up with the DCCC and check their math this cycle. It's not this race in NY though, the one that saw Chris Gibson beat conservative New Dem freshman Scott Murphy. (The New Dems gave Murphy $20,000 and the Blue Dogs gave him $15,000.) This year New Dem Julian Schreibman is trying to win the seat back for the Democrats by taking on Gibson. Redistricted (and renumbered the 19th CD from the 20th), it's a district in which Obama would have beaten McCain 53-45%. Although things are looking up for more and more Democrats across the country, that isn't the case here. A brand new Siena poll shows Schreibman losing by a massive 16 points. Gibson is backed by 52% of the voters, Schreibman 36% and 11% are undecided. Obama leads Romney 49-45% in the district. The DCCC, which is aggressively ignoring progressives who are running for far more winnable seat, started running this expensive ad this week:

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http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2012/09/dccc-targeting-and-expediture.html

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New Obama Ad Slams Romney for 47% Comments

post from Crooks and Liars on 25 September 2012 06:00:23 PM. © Crooks and Liars

One week after the release of secretly taped videos of Mitt Romney from a private fundraiser sent his poll numbers into a tailspin, the Obama campaign is using the controversial comments in a new television commercial that began running Monday.

In the 30 second ad, the narrator gets straight to the point, saying ?Mitt Romney attacked 47% of Americans who pay no income tax, including veterans, the elderly and disabled."

The narrator refers to the secret video clips released last Monday in Mother Jones of Romney at a private fundraiser in Florida in May. The material, recorded without the candidate?s knowledge, showed the Republican challenger telling the audience that 47% of voters are dependent on the government, see themselves as victims, and would ?vote for the president no matter what.?

One of the clips is incorporated in the new spot. ?My job is not to worry about those people,? Romney says while standing at the podium.

The narrator then asks viewers ?Doesn?t the President have to worry about everyone??

?Mitt Romney paid just 14.1 percent in taxes last year,? says the narrator, claiming that ?he keeps millions in Bermuda and the Cayman islands.?

The spot ends with the narrator saying "Maybe instead of attacking others on taxes, Romney should come clean on his."

Just don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen!

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Election Diary Rescue 9/25/12

post from Daily Kos on 25 September 2012 06:00:05 PM. © Daily Kos

Campaign Excitement Takes Firm Root

Tonight's sampling:

[MO-Sen] Akin: Write me a decent check by militantcentrist - Diarist offers video of Todd 'legitimate rape' Akin (R) being for sale, is surprised Akin didn't take him up on a $100 check if he'd do a lecture on 'lady parts'. Claire McCaskill (D) is challenging Akin.

[MN-08] Tonight! MN Democratic-Farmer-Labor party chair Ken Martin explains role of the party by ImpeccableLiberalCredentials - DFL party chair Ken Martin interview about the role of the party in all the state's races, with focus on the MN-08 race between incumbent Chip Cravaack (R) and Rick Nolan (D).

[FL-StHouse-42] Florida GOP Congressman Resigns in Disgrace, Amid Gay Prostitution Rumors by SuzieQ4624 - State representative Mike Horner (R) of Kissimee ended his re-election campaign and effectively resigned from the Florida House after his name surfaced on the client list of a prostitution ring catering to gays. The GOP has 5 days to find a replacement or allow Eileen Game (D) to be uncontested.

Today's EDR covers rescued down-ticket election diaries published between noon on September 24th till noon on September 25th.

This edition of Election Diary Rescue includes the following gems dug up by our miners, for a total of (34) diaries:

Senate: (11) posts, (6) states
House: (5) posts, (5) states, (5) districts
State: (4) posts, (3) states, (3) races
Various: (1)
Ballot Initiatives: (1)
General: (12)

More diaries and information about this project beneath the
Orange Squiggle of Down-Ticket Power

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-9-25-12

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Bus nap

post from Daily Kos on 25 September 2012 05:50:03 PM. © Daily Kos

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Romney campaign kinda admits they're losing Ohio

That's the Ohio picture without the joke pollster Gravis Marketing, which is doing its best to out-Rasmussen Rasmussen. All Pres. Barack Obama has to do at this point is sneeze to get over the 50 percent mark?which he did in the latest Washington Post and Columbus Dispatch polls.

Of course, all of this data is highly unfortunate if you are Rich Beeson, the Romney campaign's politial director.

You saw in the primaries, those of you were around in the primaries, you know we used a specific set of data for our primaries. Each week we would go in, and you know, we?d be 10 or 11 down? whether it was Ohio or Michigan or Wisconsin. We relied on our internal data. We knew where each day at any given point.

What the hell is this joker talking about? The polling composite predicted Ohio would go Romney 34.3, Santorum 32.6, Gingrich 15.6. The final result? Romney 38, Santorum 37, Gingrich 15. So the public polling nailed the margins.

So what's this crap about polls showing Romney down 10 or 11 in either the Ohio or Michigan primaries? Sifting through the polling, I guess there was a single Ohio primary poll showing Romney lagging Santorum by double digits?a Rasmussen poll. So yeah, you pretend those are accurate at your own peril.

Meanwhile, primary polling in Michigan consistently showed a neck-and-neck race, and a final tally was appropriately close. The notion that the public polling was somehow different than the actual results of those races is ludicrous and fails upon the most cursory investigation.

Or put another way, he's a lying sack of shit.

That?s the same thing we?re doing now. The public polls are what the public polls are. I kinda hope the Obama campaign is basing their campaign on what the public polls say. We don?t [...]

If they based their decisions on what the polling shows, Romney staffers would be on suicide watch. Best to pretend otherwise. Except that he can't even muster up the energy to pretend otherwise:

Look, Ohio, there?s still 42 days to go. We are by any stretch inside the margin of error in Ohio.

He might've as well thrown in a "the only poll that matters is Election Day" to complete this batch of loser talk. A poll with a 10-point spread between the two candidates an a margin of error of 5 percent is technically "within the margin of error." But that doesn't mean that the lagging candidate isn't losing.

Considering that every real public poll the past week has given Obama significant leads between 4-8 points, it is even less likely that the race is anywhere near tied (aggregate all that data, and the MoE shrinks). And the fact that Romney's own internal polling shows similar numbers (within the MoE but not leading, because he would've said so if they were) doesn't discount the public polling, it confirms it.

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-admits-they-re-losing-Ohio

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Why The Blown Call On Monday Night Football
Really Matters

By now, there’s no need to rehash the blown call that ended week three of the National Football League season and left everyone — fans, players, coaches, politicians, and media types — fuming at the replacement officials brought in thanks to the owners lockout of the league’s professional referees. Everyone has seen it, the league [...]

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University Of Tennessee Denies Domestic Partner
Benefits

Administrators at the University of Tennessee announced to faculty this week that they could not support any benefits for the unmarried same-sex partners of employees. The benefits sought included education credits, leave to care for partners and their children, and family health insurance coverage. Chancellor Jimmy Cheek and Agriculture Chancellor Larry Arrington claimed that such [...]

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