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Governors' Forecast Moves Toward Democrats in 3
Blue States

post from FiveThirtyEight on 25 October 2010 11:51:21 PM. © FiveThirtyEight

Democrats gain in California, Maryland and Hawaii. But overall, G.O.P. still holds a big edge.

Read The Full Article:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/25/governors-forecast-moves-towa
rd-democrats-in-3-blue-states/


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Governor Forecast Moves Toward Democrats in 3
Blue States

post from FiveThirtyEight on 25 October 2010 11:51:21 PM. © FiveThirtyEight

Republicans are expected to be in control of most Statehouses after Election Day, but Democrats are showing some new strength.

Read The Full Article:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/25/governor-forecast-moves-towar
d-democrats-in-3-blue-states/


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Polling and Political Wrap, 10/25/10

post from Daily Kos on 25 October 2010 11:42:36 PM. © Daily Kos

It is inevitable, in the closing days of the electoral cycle, to see polling go from sporadic, to steady, to overwhelming.

It looks like we just passed that final signpost. Welcome to poll-a-geddon. A new record (and on a Monday, no less!) of 60 polls await us to kick off the penultimate Monday of Election 2010.

On balance, this is a decent set of data for the Democrats. Some House races thought to be gone look competitive (and some races that looked competitive are less so) according to today's poll. In addition to the dozens of polls we do have, PPP is teasing three more polls (with decidedly mixed results for the Democrats).

All that (and one whole hell of a lot more!) in the Monday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

THE ANALYSIS: This does not include two PPP polls that have been tweeted extensively throughout the weekend. If one reads the Tom Jensen tea leaves, it would seem that California will look really good for Barbara Boxer, but Kentucky might be less enjoyable for Jack Conway (the tweets on KY-Sen have centered on outrage PPP picked up on the "Aqua Buddha" ad). As for the polls in front of us, PPP sees the same thing everyone except Rasmussen has seen: some daylight developing between Joe Manchin and John Raese in the Mountaineer State. Meanwhile, Joe Sestak's coin flip in Pennsylvania seemed to have been a bit ephemeral, as Pat Toomey has moved back ahead in the Muhlenberg tracker. The best news for Democrats in this set of data: both SUSA (which has been bearish on Dems this cycle) and PPP (which has been more equivocal on Dem prospects) agree that Michael Bennet is coming up from behind in Colorado. What's more: PPP noted that almost half of the electorate in Colorado had claimed to have voted early. Bennet led that subgroup by three percent of the vote.

THE U.S. HOUSE

THE ANALYSIS: On balance, this is one of the better days of House horserace polling for Democrats in recent memory. MD-01, MI-01, and VA-02 had long been conceded to the GOP by most of the pundit class, but today's data seems to contradict the conventional wisdom in all three of those races. The same could probably be said for SD-AL, but that might be owed to the fact that the preponderance of polling in that race escaped from the House of Ras. Dems also have to be happy with the polling out of Oregon. While OR-01 seemed like a longshot for Dems, OR-05 was largely seen as a real threat to flip. Of course, in a sign of how difficult it is to poll House races--we now have two polls in OR-05 in one week, showing a 22-point gap. SUSA just had Bruun up by ten last week. With the new numbers in NE-02, coupled with numbers in AZ-03 and CA-03 earlier in the month, it is becoming clear that one of the most underreported polling stories this cycle has been potentially competitive GOP-held series.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

THE ANALYSIS: An intriguing mix of data greets us to start the week. South Dakota has been off the radar throughout the election. But a public poll by a rookie pollster and a Dem internal poll show the race reasonably close. Expect a counter-strike from Team Daugaard in the very, very near future. Democrats have to like the data they are seeing in California, Maryland, and Minnesota. However, they have to start getting at least a little worried about Colorado, where Dan Maes' cash-strapped campaign has finally imploded, with Tom Tancredo as the de facto GOP nominee. On the negative side, as well, is Texas, where a pair of polls paint a pretty pessimistic picture for Democrat Bill White. We get data from a couple of seldom polled races as well. That U. of South Alabama poll in the deep South contained a big caveat, claiming that Bentley led by twenty in the early phase of their polling window, but dropped to nine points after some negative news broke about Bentley. Meanwhile, Hawaii is close, but there is finally a bit of daylight between Democrat Neal Abercrombie and Republican Duke Aiona.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras follows the lead of a couple of narratives developed by earlier polling in their septet of polls released since the weekend. They have Democrats pulling away in Maryland and Connecticut, Republicans pulling away in Georgia, and Dan Onorato on the move in Pennsylvania.

Today, and this defies recent precedent, Rasmussen doesn't make a lot of news with their polling.

CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 56%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 49%, Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Others 5%
IN-Sen: Dan Coats (R) 52%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%, Others 5%
MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 52%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 42%
ND-Sen: John Hoeven (R) 72%, Tracy Potter (D) 25%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 50%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%
SC-Sen: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 58%, Alvin Greene (D) 21%, Others 15%




Read The Full Article:
http://feeds.dailykos.com/~r/dailykos/index/~3/71b0b_yr4vU/-Polling-and-Political
-Wrap,-10-25-10


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Monday Stuff (updates)

post from The Liberal Doomsayer on 25 October 2010 11:32:00 PM. © The Liberal Doomsayer

It is personally loathesome and offensive to yours truly that a gutteral scumwad like Ron Johnson is actually still leading Russ Feingold in Wisconsin based on this - this video (more is here) is bad enough, but there is so much more that's wrong with this guy...


video details and more



...and at this point, I don't know why anybody would have any doubts as to what Carly Fiorina is all about, but in case somehow you do, here is a reminder...


video details and more



...also, click here to help Admiral Joe keep what probably will be his final campaign ad on the air...


video details and more



...and oh yeah, concerning Admiral Joe's opponent, I give you this (and he keeps such good company too)...


video details and more



...and get a load of the politician Rand Paul "admires most" in action at the end (based on this...see the last update - in response, click here to help Jack Conway)...


video details and more



Update 1 10/26/10: Disagree with Rand Paul - get your head stepped on (here...h/t Thers at Eschaton).

Update 2 10/26/10: Nope, won't be able to sweep this under the proverbial rug...

...finally, I featured this song a few times in 2006, and I'm going to bring it back again now to try and fire up anyone who needs it.



Read The Full Article:
http://liberaldoomsayer.blogspot.com/2010/10/monday-stuff_25.html


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Monday Stuff (update)

post from The Liberal Doomsayer on 25 October 2010 11:32:00 PM. © The Liberal Doomsayer

It is personally loathesome and offensive to yours truly that a gutteral scumwad like Ron Johnson is actually still leading Russ Feingold in Wisconsin based on this - this video (more is here) is bad enough, but there is so much more that's wrong with this guy...


video details and more



...and at this point, I don't know why anybody would have any doubts as to what Carly Fiorina is all about, but in case somehow you do, here is a reminder...


video details and more



...also, click here to help Admiral Joe keep what probably will be his final campaign ad on the air...


video details and more



...and oh yeah, concerning Admiral Joe's opponent, I give you this (and he keeps such good company too)...


video details and more



...and get a load of the politician Rand Paul "admires most" in action at the end (based on this...see the last update - in response, click here to help Jack Conway)...


video details and more



Update 10/26/10: Disagree with Rand Paul - get your head stepped on (here...h/t Thers at Eschaton).

...finally, I featured this song a few times in 2006, and I'm going to bring it back again now to try and fire up anyone who needs it.



Read The Full Article:
http://liberaldoomsayer.blogspot.com/2010/10/monday-stuff_25.html


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Monday Stuff

post from The Liberal Doomsayer on 25 October 2010 11:32:00 PM. © The Liberal Doomsayer

It is personally loathesome and offensive to yours truly that a gutteral scumwad like Ron Johnson is actually still leading Russ Feingold in Wisconsin based on this - this video (more is here) is bad enough, but there is so much more that's wrong with this guy...


video details and more



...and at this point, I don't know why anybody would have any doubts as to what Carly Fiorina is all about, but in case somehow you do, here is a reminder...


video details and more



...also, click here to help Admiral Joe keep what probably will be his final campaign ad on the air...


video details and more



...and oh yeah, concerning Admiral Joe's opponent, I give you this (and he keeps such good company too)...


video details and more



...and get a load of the politician Rand Paul "admires most" in action at the end (based on this...see the last update - in response, click here to help Jack Conway)...


video details and more



...finally, I featured this song a few times in 2006, and I'm going to bring it back again now to try and fire up anyone who needs it.



Read The Full Article:
http://liberaldoomsayer.blogspot.com/2010/10/monday-stuff_25.html


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Open Thread

post from Crooks and Liars on 25 October 2010 11:30:10 PM. © Crooks and Liars


video details and more

Irish Dancing - hands up! from the dance team "Up and Over It."

Open thread below...




Read The Full Article:
http://crooksandliars.com/bluegal/open-thread-506


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Jefferson's Eternal Sweatshop

post from Antemedius - Liberally Critical Thinking on 25 October 2010 11:24:02 PM. © Antemedius - Liberally Critical Thinking

I attended a rally at the University of Virginia Monday evening that was organized by students who would like UVA to pay its workers a living wage. The event was inspiring, but it could easily have been aggravating -- for the simple reason that 12 years ago I and a lot of other students held similar rallies to make the same demand.

Back then our demand was for a minimum of $8 per hour, and we displayed that $8 in orange and blue on buttons and stickers, on shirts and in store windows, and in the new policies of local businesses, school boards, and governments. We held rallies and concerts, gathered petitions, and made a heck of a lot of noise.

Eventually, long after I had left, the university met our demand. Eventually a labor union, of all unimaginable things, was formed at Mr. Jefferson's university. But the union didn't last, and neither did the living wage. It's not that UVA lowered its wages. Rather, the cost of living increased. Who could have ever predicted that? The City of Charlottesville's living wage standard is indexed to rise with the cost of living. As Mayor Dave Norris remarked to me on Monday, "It's not rocket science." And yet, such a simple solution has been too much for my alma mater to handle. Year after year, UVA would rather have a big noisy battle over its poverty wages than lose a few pennies to basic human decency -- or, as is entirely possible -- gain a few pennies by making its staff more loyal and efficient.

Students at Monday's rally read aloud anonymous testimony from UVA workers. One of them said she works 12 hours each day, but gets paid at a lower rate for the last four, rather than receiving the increased pay for overtime that our laws require. The way UVA gets around the requirement to pay overtime is by giving this worker two jobs. She works eight hours for UVA and then four more, doing the exact same job, for a contractor with UVA.

Another worker's testimony said that he works more than fulltime for dining services in Jefferson's sweatshop and has a second job but still can't pay the bills. Another employee of dining services couldn't afford groceries and had to file bankruptcy. He now has another UVA job with such long hours he never sees his family.

What drives me crazy is that these are the same kind of stories that we were outraged about 12 years ago. A student at Monday's rally apologized to those who are now homeless because UVA let them down in the past, but noted that the same policies still prevail.

We looked into every possible justification for poverty wages 12 years ago, every economist's rationale, every bureaucrat's excuse, every politician's buck passing. We built a solid case for the moral and economic and social benefit of a living wage. But winning a debate doesn't change anything.

So what did I find inspiring about joining this campaign again on Monday? Well, I see four big advantages the living wage campaign at UVA has now, compared to in the olden days.

First, the living wage movement has real examples of success from around the country -- not just ordinances passed, but documented economic benefits. The City of Charlottesville is a nearby example. Mayor Dave Norris and City Council Member Kristin Szakos, both of whom usually support good causes, were joined by City Council Member Satyendra Huja on Monday evening, meaning a majority of the 5-member city council was in attendance. Norris argued that the city had benefitted from its living wage policy and had passed a resolution encouraging UVA to meet the students' demand of $11.44 per hour for all direct or contracted employees, plus benefits including healthcare.

Second, the campaign has a lot of experience to draw on. A new committee of 15 professors has just formed to support the student-led effort, including at least three professors who were part of the campaign when I was. These are people who know the facts in their sleep and make smart demands of the university.

Third, in recent years the campaign has gained strength through nonviolent civil resistance. The powers that be at UVA have got to know these students will not be afraid to disrupt their Jeffersonian aristocracy in which university executives are paid as much as $700,000 a year.

Fourth, UVA has a new president this year in Teresa Sullivan. Professor Tico Braun said on Monday that Sullivan recently spoke with Congressman Gerry Connolly in Northern Virginia about wage policies at UVA. We know this thanks to Zach Fields who works for Connolly but used to be a UVA student rallying for a living wage. According to Fields, Sullivan seemed to see the merits of paying a living wage.

President Sullivan will face a public uproar every single year of her tenure at the campus that local slaves built as long as she leaves indecent employment policies in place. She would look far better and generate a tremendous amount of good-will were she to insist on a living wage now and index it to the cost of living, thereby eliminating the need to re-fight this every year. Sullivan would be honored for such an act above all others, upon her retirement, even if that didn't come for decades.

SUPPORT THIS CAMPAIGN:
http://livingwage.wordpress.com



Read The Full Article:
http://www.antemedius.com/content/jeffersons-eternal-sweatshop


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Election Diary Rescue 2010 (10/25 - Eight Days
'til Election Day!)

post from Daily Kos on 25 October 2010 11:16:04 PM. © Daily Kos

   This Rescue Diary covers the period from 6 PM, Sunday, 10/24 to 6:00 PM EDT, Monday, 10/25

Today's Menu Includes :
74 Diaries Overall

- 25 On House races

- Covering 22 individual Districts in 15 states

- 12 On Senate races

- Representing 8 different states

- 17 On Various election races and ballot issues

- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more

- 20 General election-related diaries

   

And be sure to follow the Election Diary Rescue on Twitter




Read The Full Article:
http://feeds.dailykos.com/~r/dailykos/index/~3/rvGL1fZgEzg/-Election-Diary-Rescue
-2010-(10-25Eight-Days-til-Election-Day!)


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C&L's Late Night Music Club With Procol Harum

post from Crooks and Liars on 25 October 2010 11:00:56 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Genre: Procol HarumTitle: The Milk Of Human Kindness
video details and more

An old friend told me that after the release of Music From Big Pink, every rock band made a record where they were trying to sound like The Band. Procol Harum's A Salty Dog could certainly fit this description, and this is probably the reason why I like it so much. That, and the fact that it has a nautical theme, as I am a big fan of sea-faring history. What's your favorite concept record?

A Salty Dog A Salty Dog Artist: Procol Harum Price: $7.99 (As of 10/25/10 03:43 pm details)




Read The Full Article:
http://crooksandliars.com/jared-shade-reynolds/cls-late-night-music-club-pro


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