President Obama's average lead in our top 10 "tipping point" states is larger than his average lead in national polls.
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As a last bit of preparation for my trip overseas, today I gave a speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars. Since they have the word "foreign" prominently in their name, the campaign thought it would be a good transitory step towards speaking with actual foreigners. It also made for a good opportunity to speak of my own foreign policy; sadly, as we are still working towards formulating one, we were not able to take advantage of the occasion. Instead we padded things out with some condemnations of government leaks, which are bad things.
I was able, however, to at least clarify my previous position on Afghanistan, which for some reason individual citizens continue to press me on (the press units, at least, have mostly moved on). I announced that if I were president, I would seek to leave Afghanistan in 2014, as the current president previously announced, but I announced that I would not announce that position because announcing it would be wrong. I believe I was able to satisfactorily clarify the sharp difference between my and my opponent's position on this matter.
Now I am off to various foreign locales. We have scheduled them according to their degree of foreignness (London, then Israel, then Poland), which will give the foreign policy team yet more time to draft a foreign policy. By the time we arrive in Poland, I can only hope they have finally decided whether or not I approve of that nation. It would be irritating to have to un-visit the country retroactively.
The Spanish 10-year bond yield keeps going straight up. It sits now at 7.62%, a high since the creation of the euro. They will need to return to the markets to sell bonds on August 2, and if the yields are at the same rate, it will be very difficult for[...]
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(Blogger’s Note—July 25 marks the 6th anniversary of regular posting on Texas Liberal. I’m glad to say that I’m nearing 2 million page views. That is pretty good for one yahoo sitting at home. I was thinking today of what I wanted to say for my blog anniversary. I came to the view that the [...]
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In the ongoing Texas Democratic primary runoff voting, I’m support Lissa Squiers in the 7th Congressional district. (Above is a photo of Ms. Squiers noting something that I’m certain was important.) The incumbent in this race is Republican right-wing extremist John Culberson. Ms. Squiers’ opponent in the runoff is energy attorney James Cargas. Ms. Squiers [...]
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While the presidential race continues to look absurdly tight in most national polling, and perhaps a tad less so in a state-by-state analysis, the banner headlines for the Tuesday edition of the Wrap come from opposite ends of the country, where two Democratic candidates are in a position where they have not been in a while?out in front.
While both are in what are generally considered to be tossup races, both gubernatorial aspirant Jay Inslee of Washington and Senate contender Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are sporting actual leads in new polling out today. That, and another example of internal polling counterstrike, grace our edition of the Wrap.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (Hart and McInturff for NBC News/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (45-44)
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (48-42)
FL-16 (PPP for Fitzgerald): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 44, Keith Fitzgerald (D) 36A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
MA-SEN (MassINC): Elizabeth Warren (D) 40, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 38
NY-01 (Garin-Hart-Yang for the House Majority PAC): Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 56, Randy Altschuler (R) 32
WA-GOV (Elway): Jay Inslee (D) 43, Rob McKenna (R) 36
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Jon Stewart took the talking heads in the media to task for the claim that it's too early after the shooting in the movie theater in Colorado to talk about gun control.
STEWART: So you?re telling me it is too soon to even have a conversation about it? You?re telling me that to discuss the epidemic of gun violence in this country, for that, there is a waiting period. Yeah, I guess you?d hate to go into a conversation about guns all hot-headed and say something impulsively you?ll never be able to take back.
But, as he pointed out, it is acceptable to ask whether we should be allowed to ban masks in movie theaters, because we all know that's the real cause of the problem here, right?
But by virtually every other metric, registered voters appear to favor the president.
-Looking out for the middle class? Mr. Obama (49% to 33%)
-Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency? Mr. Obama (48% to 32%)
-Being a good commander in chief? Mr. Obama leads by 10 points.
TEAM OBAMA has been hitting Mitt Romney relentlessly with negative ads, which we see every day here in the Beltway. It’s rocked his approval ratings and dragged him down, the proof is in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. But on the economy, Romney remains in the lead, 43% to 36%. The other side is that Pres. Obama’s unfavorable numbers are as “high as we’ve ever recorded them in our poll,” according to NBC’s Chuck Todd.
Everyone is talking about the new 30-second ad “Always” today, but the ad above is far more important. Pres. Obama frames the election as “The Choice,” which is what Mitt Romney doesn’t want it to be. The only way Romney wins is if November is a referendum on the Obama presidency. I’m just not certain Team Romney understands what it means that Obama framed the election as a choice first and did so with this 60-second ad.
“[...] tactically the Obama campaign has basically won the first half of the general election,” was Chuck Todd’s review today on “Hardball.” But as with any negative campaigning, the one on the offense takes a hit, too, and favorability is something Pres. Obama can’t afford to let slip too far.
From the White House gaggle today, via the pool report which reporters and independent journalists like myself get via email:
-Psaki began by showing a new 30-second television ad being launched by the Obama campaign in six states, featuring the president speaking direct to camera answering the ?you didn?t build that? attacks by Gov. Romney. The six states: Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia. Told the campaign will send out shortly.
Psaki: We are not going to stand by while Mitt Romney slices and dices and deliberately takes out of context the president?s remarks on businesses.
Asked if the ad showed the campaign was concerned Republican attacks were taking hold, Psaki said that when you have a period of time where the Republicans have ?It was important to us to ensure people knew where the president was coming from.? Why the president speaking to cameraJ? He?s an effective communicator.
Politico also cited this exchange.
?Always? will air in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.
The city and the teachers’ union went to court to battle over the city’s plan to “turnaround” 24 schools by firing thousands of teachers.
The judge listened to the arguments, retired to her chambers, and returned seven minutes later to say that she was sustaining the arbitrator’s decision. The city may not lay off the teachers. It violates their contract.
Today, actor Sherman Helmsley died of natural causes at age 74 at his home in El Paso, Texas. Helmsley is famous for playing the wise-cracking George Jefferson on the iconic show The Jeffersons, which ran for a decade from 1975-1985.
The Jeffersons, itself a spinoff of All In The Family was not the first show to represent African American life on television – Amos & Andy was aired twenty years before – but it was the first to make it so real and relatable. The Jeffersons was about an African American family living in luxury, which came as a result of George Jefferson’s hard work. It conveyed that the American Dream really is meant for everyone, and it did so through normalizing the African American family. George Jefferson and his family were not entitled or special, they were normal – and successfully so.
“[T]o air a show that featured realistic, contemporary African American life, which in itself belied tired stereotypes, further awakened the country to the reality of population diversity,” David Weigand of the San Francisco Gate wrote today.
The beloved character of George Jefferson – a devoted husband and testy neighbor, among other things – lived well beyond the end of the show. In the years after The Jeffersons went off air, Helmsley carried his character into televisions shows like Family Matters, The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, and Sister Sister.
Helmsley made his mark again and again, and will be survived by his powerful legacy.
– Ben Sherman and Christina Lewis