"Quake" Predictors Say "Obama to Win"

post from The Francis L. Holland Blog on 24 August 2008 09:01:00 PM. © The Francis L. Holland Blog

For a couple of decades, scientists have been trying to predict American presidential election results the way they do earthquakes: by looking for a set of indicators that can correctly predict when an earthquake will occur. According to some of them, they are now better able to predict the behavior of presidential elections than of earthquake zones, and they say the predictors are showing that Obama will beat McCain by as much as a five point margin.

The intriguing thing about the keys is that they seem to portend the direction of a presidential election well before the campaign begins. In 1991, for example, at the height of George H.W. Bush's popularity, Lichtman predicted the White House would change hands in 1992 -- he even fielded a call about this from the office of an obscure Arkansas governor named Bill Clinton, who wanted to know whether Bush could be beaten.

In 1983, Lichtman was summoned to the White House and asked by Lee Atwater, President Ronald Reagan's political director, whether the Republicans could keep the White House if they ran a candidate other than Reagan. Lichtman told Atwater they would win in 1984 with Reagan but lose without him -- an incumbent president running for reelection and a charismatic candidate are two keys.

In 2004, as many Democrats told themselves that there was no way Sen. John F. Kerry could lose to George W. Bush, Lichtman said his keys foretold a Republican victory.

In a paper in the International Journal of Forecasting, Lichtman predicted a political earthquake this November: The incumbent party will crumble, and Sen. Barack Obama will be elected president. Washington Post

When these forecasters predicted the race earlier this year, based on historic trends, all predicted that the Democratic candidate would take the White House.

Can the skin color of the presidential candidate change the reliability of measures that have predicted and post-predicted presidential races back to 1865? It certainly will be a measure of the importance of skin color in America.

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http://francislholland.blogspot.com/2008/08/quake-predictors-say-obama-to-win.htm
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Taliban Commander: My Forces Attacked US Base

post from IraqSlogger.com on 24 August 2008 09:00:19 PM. © IraqSlogger.com

In an exclusive interview with AfPax Insider, the top Taliban commander in the Afghan province of Nuristan, Mullah Munibullah, claims his fighters were responsible for the July 13 attack on a U.S.

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Concern Trolled By A White Supremacist

post from Crooks and Liars on 24 August 2008 09:00:10 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Oh noes! Fournier gets Malkinized!So let me get this straight, an unapologetic racist who openly tittered about creating fake credentials to cause chaos at the Democratic Convention in Denver thinks that mean little progressive bloggers aren’t playing fair with Fournier? What a WATB.Doesn’t that then mean that he thinks that Malkin’s tactics are wrong? Let’s [...]

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Associated Press: Accuracy in Reporting

post from BeThink - Front Page on 24 August 2008 09:00:00 PM. © BeThink - Front Page

copyright ? 2008 Betsy L. Angert

What is black and white and read all over? Associated Press reports written by the "respectable" albeit some would say disreputable Ron Fournier. Few Journalists foment interest in this Presidential election in the way this whimsical writer does. His prose is not dry. Detachment does not define the Washington Bureau Chief. Conventional standards, set by the information industry, might label this laudable lackey as less than logical. For logic is rarely found in flaming rhetoric. Fournier describes his approach as "accountability journalism" and "liberating . . . the truth," as well it should be.
The employer of this esteemed Correspondent, is the much admired Associated Press. The establishment is a formidable favorite in the news industry. The company's facts fascinate. Its mission mesmerizes. "The Associated Press is the backbone of the world's information system serving thousands of daily newspaper, radio, television and online customers with coverage in all media and news in all formats. It is the largest and oldest news organization in the world, serving as a source of news, photos, graphics, audio, and video. AP's mission is to be the essential global news network, providing distinctive news services of the highest quality, reliability and objectivity with reports that are accurate, balanced and informed."

Yet, the articles Mister Fournier submits have a factual flavor. The zest and zing leaves a bad taste in the mouths of many, or at least those on the political Left. His black type is not a savory chocolate. The white behind the words is not a plain vanilla. Some may call the work of Ron Fournier yellow journalism.

Each essay Fournier inscribes favors a political Party, the Grand Old one. Readers might review but a few captions and columns to gain a sense of the slant. The title On Deadline: Obama walks arrogance line, captures the conceit of a candidate or a columnist haughty with the power to influence an attentive audience. The text within the article enriches the essence of this tasty tidbit, which passes for "news."

He's bordering on arrogance.
The dictionary defines the word as an "offensive display of superiority or self-importance; overbearing pride." Obama may not be offensive or overbearing, but he can be a bit too cocky for his own good.

Might we wonder if Ron Fournier, the reporter can be a bit too overconfident? Within this "objective" story the Journalist believes he can aptly assess the mettle of the man as evident in the essay Analysis: Obama a 'Courageous Leader'?

Women are not exempt from scrutiny that is if the female is a Democrat. Hillary's Flight of Fancy, a discussion the former First Lady's memory and actual experience in Bosnia, while newsworthy is unfairly ridiculed by this Associated Press reporter presumed to be committed to the organizations mission. Again, the Associated Press pledges to provide reliable and objective reports that are accurate, balanced, and informed.

Thus, the question might be asked; is the Washington Bureau Chief a columnist or a correspondent. Another headline might answer this query. Sen. Hillary Clinton an Artful Dodger. Journalist Fournier wonders in print; What does Clinton want? A reader might contemplate what does Ron Fournier long for?

A reader might accept that this reporter inquires as he informs. An avid learner who looks for news could chime, such curiosity benefits the public, and well it might. However, the presumed neutrality of Ron Fournier is not evident, his alliances are.

Associated Press reporter Ron Fournier, in his missives, supports a Presidential aspirant, John McCain. The maverick McCain is equally enamored with the veteran political reporter. Indeed, the Senator was a suitor of the correspondent. Perchance, the Arizona Senator saw the prosaic phrase Mister Fournier inscribed in a mail to Karl Rove, "Keep up the fight," and he knew. Ron the Republican could and would fight or write for him too. Perhaps, he does, although he is paid by the Associated Press.

Hence, with such a respected and widely read source to spread the word, the articles offered by Ron Fournier pass for objectivity. A credulous citizen may not suspect a seemingly credible Correspondent. A reader of any of the many prestigious periodicals that carry AP stories may be unaware of the connections this columnist has with those on Capitol Hill. The people can only muse of the media, the power of the message, and the messenger, and perhaps they must for . . .

Fournier Is At It Again
By Steve Benen
CBS News
(Political Animal) - Fournier Is At It Again . . . The latest piece from Ron Fournier, the AP's Washington bureau chief and the man responsible for directing the wire service's coverage of the presidential campaign, on Joe Biden joining the Democratic ticket, is drawing a fair amount of attention this morning. More importantly, McCain campaign staffers are pushing it fairly aggressively to other reporters, in large part because it mirrors the Republican line with minimal variation.
By choosing Biden, Fournier argues, Barack Obama is showing a "lack of confidence," and is siding with "the status quo."

If, such slander, or the source, evokes exasperation, readers of what is printed in black and white by the Associated Press and read all over, may wish to react. Articles, which appear in most every paper worldwide, may wish to communicate such distress to Executives at local or national newspapers. Readers may wish to write letters to the editor such as . . .

Dearest Editor . . .
I write of what troubles me. Associated Press correspondent Ron Fournier weaves quite a tale as he tells readers what to think of elections and candidates. His essays are as rumors, rants, or a rage against anyone in the Democratic Party. Readers such as I seek more than tantrums. We yearn for quality accounts. I, personally, do not appreciate diatribes.
The most recent invective was "Biden pick shows lack of confidence." The text screamed its skewed vision. "The candidate of change went with the status quo . . . Barack Obama sought to shore up his weakness -inexperience . . The Biden selection is the next logistical step in an Obama campaign that has become more negative . . ."
Surprised by such barbs, I studied the author. I learned, scorching satire could be expected. Apparently, Ron Fournier spoke with the McCain campaign of his being a senior Political Adviser in 2007. While one malicious missive might be excused, a slew of such essays offer ample cause for concern.
Mister Fournier words are frequently more Republican than reasoned. The "journalist" writes . . .
"Poor Hillary. After trying to save her sinking candidacy with awkward turns of flattery and sarcasm, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton resorted to a new tactic in Tuesday night's debate: self-pity."
Editors, such statements do not reflect fair and accurate reports. Please tell those at the Associated Press, the recent reports penned by this wire service reporter, Ron Fournier, lack objectivity. Your readers want no more tirades; we long for impartial accounts.
Betsy L. Angert
Florida

Possibly, if readers write the Associated Press will be reminded; periodical readers seek enlightenment in black and white text. A newspaper is read all over for it resonates as reasoned. Those who love current affairs do not wish to have the truth obscured. They read for fact not fiction. If the people write, newspaper Editors flooded with fervent letters may feel the wrath of citizens eager for ingenuous information. Perhaps, the Associated Press will come to understand, the people are unwilling to be silent or consent to a commentary flavored by the reporters bias.

Readers of rhetoric that obfuscates all but a Republican perspective, please speak.
Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.
~ Martin Luther King Junior

References for readers . . .

The Associated Press
Yellow Journalism. Think Quest.
On Deadline: Obama walks arrogance line, By Ron Fournier. Yahoo News March 17, 2008
Analysis: Obama a 'Courageous Leader'? By Ron Fournier. ABC News. October 2, 2007
Mail to Karl Rove, From Ron Fournier. April 23, 2004
pdf Mail to Karl Rove, From Ron Fournier. April 23, 2004
Sen. Hillary Clinton an Artful Dodger, By Ron Fournier. Washington Post. June 20, 2007
What does Clinton want? Perhaps a vice presidency, or a prime-time convention speech. By Ron Fournier. MSNBC News. June 4, 2008
Fournier Is At It Again. By Steve Benen. CBS News. August 23, 2008
Ron Fournier. Associated Press. memeorandum.
One of Fournier's job options: McCain, By Michael Calderone. Politico. July 29, 2008
AP's Fournier to Rove: 'Keep up the fight, The Carpetbagger Report. July 15, 2008

Read The Full Article:
http://www.BeThink.org/showDiary.do?diaryId=994

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Associated Press Awry

post from BeThink - Front Page on 24 August 2008 09:00:00 PM. © BeThink - Front Page

copyright ? 2008 Betsy L. Angert

What is black and white and read all over? Associated Press reports written by the "respectable" albeit some would say disreputable Ron Fournier. Few Journalists foment interest in this Presidential election in the way this whimsical writer does. His prose is not dry. Detachment does not define the Washington Bureau Chief. Conventional standards, set by the information industry, might label this laudable lackey as less than logical. For logic is rarely found in flaming rhetoric. Fournier describes his approach as "accountability journalism" and "liberating . . . the truth," as well it should be.
The employer of this esteemed Correspondent, is the much admired Associated Press. The establishment is a formidable favorite in the news industry. The company's facts fascinate. Its mission mesmerizes. "The Associated Press is the backbone of the world's information system serving thousands of daily newspaper, radio, television and online customers with coverage in all media and news in all formats. It is the largest and oldest news organization in the world, serving as a source of news, photos, graphics, audio, and video. AP's mission is to be the essential global news network, providing distinctive news services of the highest quality, reliability and objectivity with reports that are accurate, balanced and informed."

Yet, the articles Mister Fournier submits have a factual flavor. The zest and zing leaves a bad taste in the mouths of many, or at least those on the political Left. His black type is not a savory chocolate. The white behind the words is not a plain vanilla. Some may call the work of Ron Fournier yellow journalism.

Each essay Fournier inscribes favors a political Party, the Grand Old one. Readers might review but a few captions and columns to gain a sense of the slant. The title On Deadline: Obama walks arrogance line, captures the conceit of a candidate or a columnist haughty with the power to influence an attentive audience. The text within the article enriches the essence of this tasty tidbit, which passes for "news."

He's bordering on arrogance.
The dictionary defines the word as an "offensive display of superiority or self-importance; overbearing pride." Obama may not be offensive or overbearing, but he can be a bit too cocky for his own good.

Might we wonder if Ron Fournier, the reporter can be a bit too overconfident? Within this "objective" story the Journalist believes he can aptly assess the mettle of the man as evident in the essay Analysis: Obama a 'Courageous Leader'?

Women are not exempt from scrutiny that is if the female is a Democrat. Hillary's Flight of Fancy, a discussion the former First Lady's memory and actual experience in Bosnia, while newsworthy is unfairly ridiculed by this Associated Press reporter presumed to be committed to the organizations mission. Again, the Associated Press pledges to provide reliable and objective reports that are accurate, balanced, and informed.

Thus, the question might be asked; is the Washington Bureau Chief a columnist or a correspondent. Another headline might answer this query. Sen. Hillary Clinton an Artful Dodger. Journalist Fournier wonders in print; What does Clinton want?A reader might contemplate what does Ron Fournier long for?

A reader might accept that this reporter inquires as he informs. An avid learner who looks for news could chime, such curiosity benefits the public, and well it might. However, the presumed neutrality of Ron Fournier is not evident, his alliances are.

Associated Press reporter Ron Fournier, in his missives, supports a Presidential aspirant, John McCain. The maverick McCain is equally enamored with the veteran political reporter. Indeed, the Senator was a suitor of the correspondent. Perchance, the Arizona Senator saw the prosaic phrase Mister Fournier inscribed in a mail to Karl Rove, "Keep up the fight," and he knew. Ron the Republican could and would fight or write for him too. Perhaps, he does, although he is paid by the Associated Press.

Hence, with such a respected and widely read source to spread the word, the articles offered by Ron Fournier pass for objectivity. A credulous citizen may not suspect a seemingly credible Correspondent. A reader of any of the many prestigious periodicals that carry AP stories may be unaware of the connections this columnist has with those on Capitol Hill. The people can only muse of the media, the power of the message, and the messenger, and perhaps they must for . . .

Fournier Is At It Again
By Steve Benen
CBS News
(Political Animal) - Fournier Is At It Again . . . The latest piece from Ron Fournier, the AP's Washington bureau chief and the man responsible for directing the wire service's coverage of the presidential campaign, on Joe Biden joining the Democratic ticket, is drawing a fair amount of attention this morning. More importantly, McCain campaign staffers are pushing it fairly aggressively to other reporters, in large part because it mirrors the Republican line with minimal variation.
By choosing Biden, Fournier argues, Barack Obama is showing a "lack of confidence," and is siding with "the status quo."

If, such slander, or the source, evokes exasperation, readers of what is printed in black and white by the Associated Press and read all over, may wish to react. Articles, which appear in most every paper worldwide, may wish to communicate such distress to Executives at local or national newspapers. Readers may wish to write letters to the editor such as . . .

Dearest Editor . . .
I write of what troubles me. Associated Press correspondent Ron Fournier weaves quite a tale as he tells readers what to think of elections and candidates. His essays are as rumors, rants, or a rage against anyone in the Democratic Party. Readers such as I seek more than tantrums. We yearn for quality accounts. I, personally, do not appreciate diatribes.
The most recent invective was "Biden pick shows lack of confidence." The text screamed its skewed vision. "The candidate of change went with the status quo . . . Barack Obama sought to shore up his weakness -inexperience . . The Biden selection is the next logistical step in an Obama campaign that has become more negative . . ."
Surprised by such barbs, I studied the author. I learned, scorching satire could be expected. Apparently, Ron Fournier spoke with the McCain campaign of his being a senior Political Adviser in 2007. While one malicious missive might be excused, a slew of such essays offer ample cause for concern.
Mister Fournier words are frequently more Republican than reasoned. The "journalist" writes . . .
"Poor Hillary. After trying to save her sinking candidacy with awkward turns of flattery and sarcasm, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton resorted to a new tactic in Tuesday night's debate: self-pity."
Editors, such statements do not reflect fair and accurate reports. Please tell those at the Associated Press, the recent reports penned by this wire service reporter, Ron Fournier, lack objectivity. Your readers want no more tirades; we long for impartial accounts.
Betsy L. Angert
Florida

Possibly, if readers write the Associated Press will be reminded; periodical readers seek enlightenment in black and white text. A newspaper is read all over for it resonates as reasoned. Those who love current affairs do not wish to have the truth obscured. They read for fact not fiction. If the people write, newspaper Editors flooded with fervent letters may feel the wrath of citizens eager for ingenuous information. Perhaps, the Associated Press will come to understand, the people are unwilling to be silent or consent to a commentary flavored by the reporters bias.

Readers of rhetoric that obfuscates all but a Republican perspective, please speak.
Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.
~ Martin Luther King Junior

References for readers . . .

"The Associated Press
Yellow Journalism. Think Quest.
On Deadline: Obama walks arrogance line, By Ron Fournier. Yahoo News March 17, 2008
Analysis: Obama a 'Courageous Leader'? By Ron Fournier. ABC News. October 2, 2007
Mail to Karl Rove, From Ron Fournier. April 23, 2004
pdf Mail to Karl Rove, From Ron Fournier. April 23, 2004
Sen. Hillary Clinton an Artful Dodger, By Ron Fournier. Washington Post. June 20, 2007
What does Clinton want? Perhaps a vice presidency, or a prime-time convention speech. By Ron Fournier. MSNBC News. June 4, 2008
Fournier Is At It Again. By Steve Benen. CBS News. August 23, 2008
Ron Fournier. Associated Press. memeorandum.
One of Fournier's job options: McCain, By Michael Calderone. Politico. July 29, 2008
AP's Fournier to Rove: 'Keep up the fight, The Carpetbagger Report. July 15, 2008

Read The Full Article:
http://www.BeThink.org/showDiary.do?diaryId=994

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Catching Up On Biden

post from Open Left - Front Page on 24 August 2008 08:58:56 PM. © Open Left - Front Page

I just spent 14 of the last 50 hours driving up to Batavia, New York in the backseat of a 1999[...]

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Couric didn't challenge McCain's false claim that
Biden proposed "break[ing] Iraq up into three different countries"

post from Media Matters for America on 24 August 2008 08:57:31 PM. © Media Matters for America

During an August 23 interview withSen. John McCain, the video of whichis available on CBS' website, CBS EveningNews anchor KatieCouric did notchallenge McCain's false claim that Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) "said you had to break Iraq up into three different countries" aspart of his Iraqplan. McCain's false statement was also aired without challenge on the August24 edition of CBS News Sunday Morning.Additionally, on the August 23 edition of Fox News' America'sElection HQ, Fox News contributor Karl[...]

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Transformational Retrofitting

I got this fool idea in my head a few months ago, and it still hasn't gone away, so I thought maybe I could just write it out and then I'll be able to forget it.It came from a comment I made in an essay by Turkana on torture, back in April, which said,[...]

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The Late Campaign

Everything has been late in this general election. The Democratic nominee was not decided until June. The Democratic vice presidential nominee was not publically announced until August 23. The Democratic Convention does not start until August 25, the latest date in recent history. The Republican vice presidential nominee will not be named until August 29 at the earliest. And the Republicans will hold the latest convention in memory, which will begin ON Labor Day, the traditional kickoff of the Fall campaign.

After the end of the GOP Convention, only 3 weeks will pass before the first Presidential debate on September 26. That is likely to be the most important event of the general election campaign. Only 6 days later, the VP debate will be held on October 2. Just 5 days later comes the second Presidential debate on October 7. And the final Presidential debate comes 8 days after that, on October 15. After that just 20 days remain until the election.

Bottom line, this notion that "it's early" is simply wrong. Folks who say that are thinking in terms of previous electoral calendars. The fierce urgency of now is upon us already in this election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only