The Moral Obligation to Speak

post from Everyday Citizen on 20 January 2010 03:08:18 PM. © Everyday Citizen

The speeches of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. have been published broadly since his terrible death.[...]

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Outlook

post from Talking Points Memo on 20 January 2010 03:08:00 PM. © Talking Points Memo

It proved to be pretty hard to get any cooperation from senate Republicans on health care in 2009. But now that they're chastened, it should be easier to get a few of them to come across the aisle. [...]

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A Knock on the Door

post from Everyday Citizen on 20 January 2010 03:06:12 PM. © Everyday Citizen

Dr. King and his family paid a price to secure justice for millions and to liberate both oppressed[...]

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Enough

post from Everyday Citizen on 20 January 2010 03:01:28 PM. © Everyday Citizen

I'm really liking what Todd Bouldin writes in a recent blog entry. Here's a taste of how he[...]

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Evan Bayh wanks away as he promotes Fox News
talking points: Party has gone too far left

post from Crooks and Liars on 20 January 2010 03:00:23 PM. © Crooks and Liars

You can always count on Evan Bayh to act like a typical gutless conservaDem. As usual, he draws the wrong lessons from the loss in Massachusetts and takes his cues from Fox and David Broder.

What is the lesson of Massachusetts ? where Democrats face the prospects of losing a Senate seat they?ve held since 1952? For Senator Bayh the lesson is that the party pushed an agenda that is too far to the left, alienating moderate and independent voters.
?It?s why moderates and independents even in a state as Democratic as Massachusetts just aren?t buying our message,? he said. ?They just don?t believe the answers we are currently proposing are solving their problems. That?s something that has to be corrected.?
Bayh pointed that it?s not just Massachusetts. Independents also rejected Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia in November. ? The only we are able to govern successfully in this country is by liberals and progressives making common cause with independents and moderates,? Bayh said. ?Whenever you have just the furthest left elements of the Dem party attempting to impose their will on the rest of the country -- that?s not going to work too well.?

How about this lesson: If the Senate hadn't bowed down to the almighty health-insurance industry and come up with a decent health-care bill that excited the Democratic base, maybe Massachusetts voters would have come out in droves and honored the legacy of Teddy Kennedy.

That's backed up by a poll just released of those voters from Democracy for America:

HEALTH CARE BILL OPPONENTS THINK IT "DOESN'T GO FAR ENOUGH"
* by 3 to 2 among Obama voters who voted for Brown
* by 6 to 1 among Obama voters who stayed home
(18% of Obama supporters who voted supported Brown.)
VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT THE PUBLIC OPTION
* 82% of Obama voters who voted for Brown
* 86% of Obama voters who stayed home
OBAMA VOTERS WANT DEMOCRATS TO BE BOLDER
* 57% of Brown voters say Obama "not delivering enough" on change he promised
* 49% to 37% among voters who stayed home

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http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/evan-bayh-wanks-away-he-promotes-fox-ne

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Daily Futures Commentary January 20, 2010

post from Jutia Group on 20 January 2010 03:00:05 PM. © Jutia Group

Wednesday, January 20, 2010U.S. Stock markets backed off from Tuesday?s strong closes overnight as China took moves to limit lending in an attempt to slow down the economy. The news sent shockwaves throughglobal equity markets as the Shanghai index dropped 3%. Traders are concerned that less spending from China will derail the global economic recovery.Last night IBM reported strong earnings but this news couldn?t carry the market. Investors may have been standing aside while awaiting the special election results from Massachusetts.The news that Republican Brown defeated the Democratic machine could pressure healthcare stocks, but insurance stocks may benefit if the…

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The ‘facts’ of the Christmas Day plot
are ‘clear’ — to everyone except John McCain.

post from Think Progress on 20 January 2010 02:58:00 PM. © Think Progress

Today, the Senate Homeland Security Committee held a hearing on the failed Christmas Day bombing. One of the administration officials who testified was National Counterterrorism Center Director Michael Leiter. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) asked whether anyone had been “held accountable” for the intelligence lapses, saying that the “facts” of what happened were “clear.” However, McCain’s summary distorted a couple of key facts. When Leiter tried to correct him, McCain became defensive and tried to accuse Leiter of avoiding his question:

McCAIN: I think everybody knows the facts of the Christmas bomber. A person buys a ticket with cash, one-way ticket. His father has already warned the CIA. The series of missteps have taken place, what were — led to this near tragedy. … It’s fairly clear the facts of what happened, isn’t it?
LEITER: Well, actually I think many of the facts are clear. I would correct the record on a couple of points. In fact, the fact is not that he bought a one-way ticket, he bought a round-trip ticket. The fact that he used cash, frankly, is in Africa, completely and utterly —
MCCAIN: That was in Copenhagen, not Africa.
LEITER: No, sir. I believe he bought —
MCCAIN: Did he have someone who facilitated — if you think — if you’re defending –
LEITER: No, sir –
MCCAIN: – that we shouldn’t have found — shouldn’t have been alerted to this individual, sir, then –
LEITER: Then I apologize.

Watch it:

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Leiter didn’t need to apologize; he was just trying to get the correct facts on record. The accused Christmas Day bomber, Umar Abdulmutallab, did not have a one-way ticket, but rather paid $2,831 for a round-trip ticket from Nigeria to Detroit via Amsterdam. He “bought his ticket with cash in Ghana eight days before the flight departed Nigeria” — not in Copenhagen, as McCain claimed. (HT: TPMmuckraker)

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Scott Brown is More Liberal Than Olympia Snowe,
and Now Hes Pivotal, Too

More from University of Chicago professor Boris Shor. First, the punch line:

I [Boris] disagree with Josh Tucker that the election isn?t that consequential. First, the pivotal Senator will now be a Republican, not a Democrat. The parties put a lot of pressure on moderate members of Congress to vote one way or the other; it?s often unsuccessful, but its a pretty powerful source of influence. Second, that pivotal Senator will be Brown, not Snowe (if my prediction proves accurate). Finally, this pivotality will exist on every issue, not just health care reform, which probably just expired in its current form. Not too shabby as a consequential election, right?

Now, the background:

Scott Brown won the special Senate election in Massachusetts over Martha Coakley yesterday. . . . based upon his voting record in the Massachusetts State Senate as well the Votesmart surveys of MA state legislators (include his own from 2002), I [Boris] estimate that Brown is to the left of the leftmost Republican in the Senate, Olympia Snowe of Maine [typo fixed] and to the right of the rightmost Democrat in the Senate, Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Just as important, Brown stands to become the pivotal member of the Senate?that is, the 60th least liberal (equivalently, the 40th most conservative)?a distinction previously held by Nelson.

These figures come thanks to the hard work of UCLA political scientist Jeff Lewis who keeps an archive of almost up-to-the-minute votes in Congress, and Stanford political scientist Simon Jackman who calculates current ideological scores for all members of Congress in the current 111th Congress, past and present.

By dropping Senators no longer in office in this Congress, I [Boris] created a dual Google Docs spreadsheet ranking of current US Senators before Brown?s election, and afterwards. It can be found here. The crucial columns to focus on are the first one, containing the ranking, and the third one, containing Jackman?s best estimate of their ideology (the final three columns express the uncertainty surrounding the estimates ? ignore this for now). For a graphic version of this data, click here.

Before yesterday?s election, the 60th senator was Ben Nelson. This ranking made Nelson uniquely powerful . . . After Brown?s election, however, the picture changes. Mark Kirk, the appointed temporary replacement for Edward Kennedy who is estimated to be the third most liberal Senator, leaves. Brown, who?s to the left of Snowe but to the right of Nelson, enters. He therefore becomes that pivotal 41st vote to sustain a filibuster and deadlock legislation (or the 60th vote to end a filibuster and pass it).

How far to the left of Snowe and how far to the right of Nelson is Brown? It?s difficult to tell exactly. In the spreadsheet, I put his score (in Jackman?s scale) at 0.299, or a smidgen to the left of Snowe (0.300). But he could just as well be just a touch to the right of Nelson (0.138), too. And his drifts left and right will be watched very carefully by President Obama and Congressional and party leaders, given his likely newfound status as the filibuster pivot. That?s a lot of power.

Boris is a professor, not a pundit, so he follows up the dramatic claim with some thoughtful discussion:

Could I [Boris] be wrong? Yes. It?s possible Brown turns out to be more conservative than we would have expected given his rather liberal state legislative record. At last night?s victory speech, he laid out a number of conservative policy positions.

The observation that politicians are ideologically consistent as they move throughout their careers (?they die with their ideological boots on? in Keith Poole?s memorable phrase) is true on average, not in every case. What could make him more conservative? The party could pull him in that direction. Or maybe presidential considerations (Obama has made the hearts of all State Senators full with ambition) will pull him to the right.

But let?s be realistic. Scott Brown is a politician, not a kamikaze pilot. As David Mayhew argued in 1974, the first and proximate goal of politicians in the United States is to get re-elected. Brown will have a far harder time in 2012 against some credible, seasoned Democrat who won?t get surprised again (or run so badly). Turnout will be higher in that presidential year, meaning the Democratic base will be far more evident at the polls. And the Democrat will get to ride Obama?s coattails, influencing independents in the Democratic direction. And Brown doesn?t have that many years to build up the incumbency advantages that other freshman Senators get. He won?t have brought home as much bacon, and he won?t have risen too far in Congress.

All in all, 2012 will be a very tough election for Brown. So what will the soon-to-be-worried Senator do to enhance his electoral chances? He?ll take the public opinion pulse of his state very, very carefully. And his state is amongst the most liberal in the country. Unless he aims to run for President in 2012 (pro-choice Republicans do well in Republican primaries, right?), his liberal constituency and a desire for re-election will inevitably pull him to the left. Sure, he is far more conservative than Kennedy, Kirk, or Coakley, but that?s immaterial. Brown?s a liberal Republican, and now he?s pivotal.

I just have one question. Don't we usually think of the most pivotal senator being the median (#50 or 51), not #60? I understand what Boris is saying about the filibuster and his point about it coinciding with the party divide. The flip side of this, though, I'd think, is that if the Democrats don't have 60 votes, maybe they'll do more with 50, so the pivotal point will move?

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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/scott-brown-is-more-liberal-than.html

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Dear Dems: Pass Senate Bill At Your Peril

Dumbest God help us idea of the day, compliments of Jonathan Cohn: But you can pass health care reform very quickly if you want. All you have to do is vote for the Senate bill, as written. Yes, I?m aware of its flaws. But it?s also far better than[...]

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http://www.taylormarsh.com/2010/01/20/dear-dems-pass-senate-bill-at-your-peril/

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Midweek Diary Rescue

Enjoy.Ping pong, anyone? The Media Consortium poses the question in the Weekly Pulse: What Does Coakley’s Defeat Mean for Health Care Reform?Markjay gets credit for being the first to speculate on what last night might mean for 2012 in Who Can Stop[...]

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