Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Wednesday
brings lots of new national polls, intriguing internals

post from Daily Kos on 18 July 2012 08:00:13 PM. © Daily Kos

Some of the time, polls are released with the sole intent of giving the public a snapshot of where a race stands at a particular time. Most (but not all) media polls would fall in that category. But news outlets will also poll races where they want to gauge the impact of a recent news event, seeking to divine whether said news story is a legitimate "game changer."

Campaign polls, or other sponsored polling, often tries to do far more than that. They are released to establish a narrative.

Today, on a relatively slow polling day, we will explore some of those motives, because there are some pretty intriguing ones today.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney d. Obama (47-46)
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (45-41)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-46)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (47-44)
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (49-38)
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

FL-16 (Public Opinion Strategies for Buchanan): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 54, Keith Fitzgerald (D) 32
NJ-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 47, Joe Kyrillos (R) 34
WA-01 (DMA Market Research for Hobbs): John Koster (R) 30, Darcy Burner (D) 13, Steve Hobbs (D) 12, Suzan DelBene (D) 11, Laura Ruderman (D) 5

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

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olling-Wrap-Wednesday-brings-lots-of-new-national-polls-intriguing-internals

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John Sununu, Everybody's Drunk Uncle

post from Crooks and Liars on 18 July 2012 08:00:00 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Charles Blow: Sununu is the Everybody's Drunk Uncle

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Charles M. Blow was on fire on The Last Word last night, ablaze with reaction to John Sununu's stupid "othering" of President Obama.

For his part, Mr. Sununu did what wingers always do after they've gone off the edge of the ledge: He waited until late afternoon to meekly walk back the worst of his remarks on the lowest-rated cable network there is (CNN), saying he "should not have used those words," and then went on to claim that the President didn't understand American business ways, but instead "thinks that jobs are created by giving grants to your cronies, to your bundlers and your cronies."

Way to apologize there, John-boy. That apology was nothing more than an "I'm sorry that I said what I really thought." But fear not, Charles M. Blow was ready for him. You just have to watch the clip, because he was that good.

I only wish I could think of Sununu as my drunk uncle, but even drunks make more sense than he did.

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http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/john-sununu-everybodys-drunk-uncle

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Obama Lead Shrinks in New Mexico

post from Firedoglake on 18 July 2012 07:24:33 PM. © Firedoglake

President Obama still holds the lead in the swing state of New Mexico. According to PPP Obama leads 49 percent to Romney at 44 percent, but this is a serious drop from earlier in the year.[...]

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Timmy Has Fallen Down the Well…Again

post from The Omnipotent Poobah Speaks! on 18 July 2012 07:01:12 PM. © The Omnipotent Poobah Speaks!

Chancellor of the Exchequer, er, Treasury Secretary, Timmy Geithner, has fallen down the well?again. He?s probably wondering where the hell that hyperactive collie is when he needs her.

Timmy?s been down there before. There were allegations of excessive coziness with some of the most crapulent bankers in the biz before he was even confirmed. He failed to implement some of the simplest, most popular aspects of the bailout ? like killing excessive executive compensation inflated by the fine job they did tanking the world economy. He?s stabbed his boss Barack in the back several times by publicly challenging him and outright refused to implement some Obama financial policies. With a SecTreas like him, who needs regulators cum lobbyists?

Lassie was beyond caring about Timmy’s fate.

This time, the trip down the hole is over the LIBOR scandal that has ensnared 16 British, Swiss, and U.S. banks. The banks diddled LIBOR rates that control mortgage costs for fun and profit. Lots of profit. Like billions and billions of it. It turns out regulators on both sides of the Atlantic, including the top echelons of British government and then Fed Chairman Timmy knew about it back in 2007.

According to documents requested by Republican Rep. Randy Neugerber, Geither responded with some wimpy phone calls that went something like this:

?Hello London. We heard your guys have been playing some muy serioso financial hanky-panky. ?Sup with that??

?Oh my good chap, nothing actually. Just bankers being bankers I?m afraid. Pip, pip cheerio. Let?s do lunch next time you?re in London. We?ll put it on Barclays? (the chief offender?s) tab. They won?t mind.?

?OK, just checking. Sounds good. Cheers!? Geithner might have said.

In addition to the phone calls, Timmy and the Fed took other swift action…a year later. The drafted a letter, passed along to the Brits, outlining 6 ways to fix the problem ? 5 of which should have been, ?arrest the skeevy thieves.?

But it wasn?t all milk and cookies. Geithner viciously clamped down on the situation by making a few phone calls and promptly letting the whole thing quietly bubble while the Brits did their part by doing nothing. That really showed those bankers who was in charge ? unfortunately, it turned out to be them. Several months after the letter, a Barclays employee still called the LIBOR rates ?absolute rubbish?, showing that the international finance community works like a well-snake oiled machine.

Today, the scandal still unfolds ? largely out of sight of anyone who doesn?t read the Financial Times or the society column in the Wall St. Journal. Fines have been promised ? possibly even unprecedented fines ? that will be a tiny sliver of the amount stolen. Someone may even be threatened with prison before getting a big bonus and severance package equal to, or greater than the fines. After all, justice is blind, even if she does peek out from under the blindfold from time to time?for a fee. For his part, Timmy is just playing in the well until Lassie comes like Lassie always does.

This time, let?s just cage Lassie and let Timmy sink or swim.

Libor Scandal Just Bankers’ Latest Hit on Reality (newser.com)
Timmy in hot water again? (wherearemykeys.typepad.com)
Geithner pushed for Libor reform in 2008 (rawstory.com)
Geithner: U.S. Acted ‘Early’ and ‘Forcefully’ on Libor Flaws (blogs.wsj.com)
Libor: They all knew – and no one acted (chasvoice.blogspot.com)
The Perfect Storm – Libor Scandal (outsider-trading.com)
King Says Geithner Didn’t Allege Wrongdoing as Scandal Persists – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)

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Obama ad takes on Romney's horse and taxes

post from US Politics | AMERICAblog News on 18 July 2012 07:00:17 PM. © US Politics | AMERICAblog News

Another excellent ad from the Obama folks.

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ys-horse-and.html

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Former Bachmann Campaign Chief: ‘I Am Fully
Aware That She Sometimes Has Difficulty With Her Facts’

post from ThinkProgress on 18 July 2012 07:00:05 PM. © ThinkProgress

Former Bachmann Campaign Chief Ed Rollins

Ed Rollins, a longtime GOP strategist and the former campaign manager for Michele Bachmann’s 2012 presidential campaign, penned an op-ed for Fox News’ website today slamming the Minnesota congresswoman for her recent remarks about the Muslim Brotherhood and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Chief of Staff Huma Abedin.

Bachmann has been roundly condemned by members of her own party for suggesting that Abedin, the wife of former Congressman Anthony Weiner, is part of a coordinated effort to undermine or diminish the United States’ response to the Muslim Brotherhood.

“Shame on you, Michele!” writes Rollins, before unleashing a wave of criticism on his former boss:

Her unsubstantiated charge against Abedin, a widely respected top aide to Secretary Hillary Clinton, accusing her of some sort of far-fetched connection to the Muslim brotherhood, is extreme and dishonest.
Having worked for Congressman Bachman?s campaign for president, I am fully aware that she sometimes has difficulty with her facts, but this is downright vicious and reaches the late Senator Joe McCarthy level.

Rollins’ comments are the most forceful condemnation yet of Bachmann’s decision to submit a letter to several national security agencies in which she and three other congressmen claim — without a shred of evidence — that the Muslim Brotherhood had infiltrated the US government by securing senior-level positions in various government agencies. Rollins had guided Rep. Bachmann to a surprising victory in the 2011 Iowa straw poll before he stepped down from the day-to-day responsibilities in September amidst the campaign’s falling poll numbers.

Earlier today, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) gave an impassioned defense of Abedin and denounced Bachmann on the senate floor.

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Fiscal Cliff: The Sky Is Falling!

post from Crooks and Liars on 18 July 2012 07:00:00 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Alice Rivlin is a Very Serious Person on deficit reduction.

It's very important that we all buy into the extreme sense of urgency around all this "fiscal cliff" hysteria, so that when they spring the Grand Bargain that solves everything, we understand that there was Simply Nothing Else To Be Done. Now that you have your marching orders, start laying in the cat food for your retirement years:

WASHINGTON ? Senate Democrats ? holding firm against extending tax cuts for the rich ? are proposing a novel way to circumvent the Republican pledge not to vote for any tax increase: Allow all the tax cuts to expire Jan. 1, then vote on a tax cut for the middle class shortly thereafter.
The proposal illustrates the lengths lawmakers are going to try to include new federal revenues in a fix for the ?fiscal cliff,? the reckoning in January that would come when all Bush-era tax cuts expire and automatic spending cuts to military and domestic programs kick in.
Virtually every Republican in Congress has taken the pledge, pushed by Grover Norquist?s Americans for Tax Reform, never to vote for a tax increase ? a pledge both parties see as a serious impediment to a tax compromise. But if tax rates snap back to the levels of the Clinton presidency on Jan. 1, any legislation to reinstate some of those tax cuts ? but not all of them ? would be considered a tax cut.
[...] Lawmakers on both sides are now lamenting the fiscal train wreck that many of them voted to create, a confluence of spending cuts and tax increases that the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said Tuesday could send the economy into recession.
At the same time, former Vice President Dick Cheney was meeting with Senate and House Republicans, in part to warn them of the dire consequences he sees in $500 billion in automatic military cuts that will begin to hit on Jan. 2. Off Capitol Hill, a broad bipartisan coalition of fiscal hawks, led by the co-chairman of President Obama?s 2010 fiscal commission, Erskine B. Bowles, restarted efforts to pressure Washington to reach a ?grand bargain? on deficit reduction.

Fiscal cliff, Grover Norquist, tax pledge, deficit reduction, blah blah blah. Grand Bargain!

Dividends and capital gains at a 20 percent rate for households that earn more than $250,000. The White House this year proposed allowing dividends to be taxed again at ordinary income rates, a plan that would increase tax rates on dividends to as high as 44.7 percent, from 15 percent, according to a new report by the accounting firm Ernst & Young.
Neither party was interested Tuesday in emphasizing what their proposals had in common. Republicans highlighted Ernst & Young?s conclusion that tax increases on the affluent would cost around 710,000 jobs, cut wages and ?have significant adverse economic effects in the long run.? Democrats pointed to the line in the report that Republicans tended to drop, which said the adverse economic impacts would hit ?when the resulting revenue is used to finance additional government spending.? The tax increases Democrats want would instead be part of a deficit reduction package.

Of course. Because the Bipartisan Elite are all about cutting the deficit in the middle of a depression!

Robert Greenstein, president of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, pointed to a report by the private equity giant Carlyle Group, which suggested that simply extending all the tax cuts and avoiding the automatic spending cuts in January could be more dangerous than letting the fiscal hammer fall. The ?fiscal cliff? would lower the nation?s indebtedness by $7.8 trillion over 10 years and bring the budget nearly to balance by 2016. In contrast, a last-minute deal to punt the deficit issue down the road would send a signal to world markets that the United States government is not willing to confront its red ink.
Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota, chairman of the Budget Committee, said the offer to allow let all the tax cuts lapse, then reinstate most of them days later, was a legitimate way to free Republicans from their no-new-taxes pledge.
But Mr. Norquist, the keeper of the pledge, said the idea ?doesn?t pass the laugh test.?

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http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/fiscal-cliff-sky-falling

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Something To Watch

A key premise of much 2012 analysis is President Obama's high personal favorability. But recent polls suggest his favorability numbers are slipping, even as he's held his own in the horse race number. Look at the chart after the jump....[...]

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These 5 IPOs Are A Great Deal Right Now

In downtown Manhattan, the bankers are getting bored. So far in July, there have been only three small IPOs completed, after the markets welcomed nine new issues in June, 14 in May and . . . → Read More: These 5 IPOs Are A Great Deal Right Now

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http://jutiagroup.com/20120718-these-5-ipos-are-a-great-deal-right-now/

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Kansas About To Become 40% More Hellholish

Kansas, a state that is so Gawd-awful that Kansas City has been sneaking it's own bad self into Missouri (which is no Garden of Eden despite what the Mormons say) for years, is thinking about turning itself into a Paul Ryan petri dish because, hey, why[...]

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