Guest post by Pamela LeaveyWall Street reeled today in the wake of growing credit crisis and ended the day with 500 point drop.Maybe the sky really isn’t falling in the wake of the Wall Street tsunami but "there will be blood."John McCain’s[...]
Read The Full Article:
John McCain has a long history with bank failures and financial scandals. He created his whole reform persona around the idea that he'd come too close to the flame and gotten burned. But he hasn't changed his philosophy or his policies one bit. He believes in the same scam his close advisor Phil "you're all a bunch of whiners" Gramm believes. He pretended for years that the problem was solely in the campaign finance system, burnishing his image with signature legislation that has proven to be completely useless. Meanwhile, he backs deregulation like it comes down from Mt Sinai.
One of the biggest questions about the daily tracking polling being conducted by Research 2000 is the partisan breakdown. So far, in the five polls conducted, Democrats have had a roughly nine-point advantage over Republicans. In a nation seemingly split 50-50, that raises some eyebrows.
I asked Research 2000 about the weighing screen, and they are confident with the numbers. Pollsters have to make educated guesses about who will turn out, and given the (still) increased levels of excitement on the Democratic side and changes in voter registration, they are convinced Democrats will have the advantage on election night.
R2K is generally within a point or two of the following splits in its daily samples:
That "O" is for "other" or "refused". So essentially, R2K believes independent and voters unaffiliated with either of the two major parties will be about 39 percent of the electorate.
Diago/Hotline features the following splits:
Again, a 9-point advantage for Democrats, so R2K isn't going out on a limb. They have backup from the venerable Hotline.
That's a five-point Democratic advantage. That "U" is for "unaffiliated", which seems a catchall for "independent" and "other". We don't know the sample breakdown of the Gallup tracking polls, unfortunately. In fact, that lack of transparency was one of the reason we wanted our own. There's some fairly big differences in these sample compositions, but bottom line, ours has the largest sample of third-party and independent voters of these three, while the others clearly push the leaners stronger to choose a major party. Who has the best formula? This is more art than science. Otherwise, everyone would be using the same formula.
Even if you disagree with the sample composition, the best value of a daily tracking poll isn't in the topline numbers, but in the trends (which are currently headed south for McCain). And even if the topline is important to you, by offering full transparency on the internals, people can recalculate the numbers to their hearts' content.
video details and more
Let's just say Joe isn't giving McCain the same free pass that Obama handed out.
A Women’s Studies Colloquium held last week at the University of Hawaii helped to shine a little light on the work of Stanley Ann Dunham aka Obama’s mom.The colloquim loosens up the constraining campaign narrative around Obama’s single mother, as if the only work of value that she’s ever done was to raise Obama.Check [...]
Read The Full Article:
The media continues to publish Donald Luskin. The media should be shut down, and replaced with some other institution that's at least minimally concerned with analytical accuracy and methodological rigor. QED.[...]
Read The Full Article:
Readers Ask: “Is Todd Palin a hulking, lumbering giant of a man?” Here At The GTL?, We Bring You The AnswerActually, I consider this to be more of a “PSA” (Public Service Announcement) than an “insider secret” since my top search term, aside from “Sara...
This is only a comment summary. Visit http://guntotingliberal.com to view the lastest content complete with some of the most outrageous original photoshops in the political blogosphere!
I want all of you who supported [Hillary Clinton] to vote for Barack Obama in November. Here's why.
Our nation is in trouble on two fronts: The American Dream is under siege at home, and America's leadership in the world has been weakened.
Middle class and low-income Americans are hurting, with incomes declining; job losses, poverty and inequality rising; mortgage foreclosures and credit card debt increasing; health care coverage disappearing; and a big spike in the cost of food, utilities, and gasoline.
Our position in the world has been weakened by too much unilateralism and too little cooperation; a perilous dependence on imported oil; a refusal to lead on global warming; a growing indebtedness and a dependence on foreign lenders; a severely burdened military; a backsliding on global non-proliferation and arms control agreements; and a failure to consistently use the power of diplomacy, from the Middle East to Africa to Latin America to Central and Eastern Europe.
Clearly, the job of the next President is to rebuild the American Dream and restore America's standing in the world. Everything I learned in my eight years as President and in the work I've done since, in America and across the globe, has convinced me that Barack Obama is the man for this job.
. . . Look at the example the Republicans have set: American workers have given us consistently rising productivity. They've worked harder and produced more. What did they get in return? Declining wages, less than ¼ as many new jobs as in the previous eight years, smaller health care and pension benefits, rising poverty and the biggest increase in income inequality since the 1920s. American families by the millions are struggling with soaring health care costs and declining coverage. I will never forget the parents of children with autism and other severe conditions who told me on the campaign trail that they couldn't afford health care and couldn't qualify their kids for Medicaid unless they quit work or got a divorce. Are these the family values the Republicans are so proud of? What about the military families pushed to the breaking point by unprecedented multiple deployments? What about the assault on science and the defense of torture? What about the war on unions and the unlimited favors for the well connected? What about Katrina and cronyism?
America can do better than that. And Barack Obama will. But first we have to elect him.
The choice is clear. The Republicans will nominate a good man who served our country heroically and suffered terribly in Vietnam. He loves our country every bit as much as we all do. As a Senator, he has shown his independence on several issues. But on the two great questions of this election, how to rebuild the American Dream and how to restore America's leadership in the world, he still embraces the extreme philosophy which has defined his party for more than 25 years, a philosophy we never had a real chance to see in action until 2001, when the Republicans finally gained control of both the White House and Congress. Then we saw what would happen to America if the policies they had talked about for decades were implemented.
They took us from record surpluses to an exploding national debt; from over 22 million new jobs down to 5 million; from an increase in working family incomes of $7,500 to a decline of more than $2,000; from almost 8 million Americans moving out of poverty to more than 5 and a half million falling into poverty - and millions more losing their health insurance.
Now, in spite of all the evidence, their candidate is promising more of the same: More tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans that will swell the deficit, increase inequality, and weaken the economy. More band-aids for health care that will enrich insurance companies, impoverish families and increase the number of uninsured. More going it alone in the world, instead of building the shared responsibilities and shared opportunities necessary to advance our security and restore our influence.
They actually want us to reward them for the last eight years by giving them four more. Let's send them a message that will echo from the Rockies all across America: Thanks, but no thanks. In this case, the third time is not the charm.
(Emphasis supplied.) Sic the Big Dog on them.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
I'd been meaning to post a fairly convincing e-mail and Facebook-forward that I got this weekend, but M. Tomasky beat me to it. Ah well. It's still an excellent distillation of the arbitrary narratives that have taken hold in this election. This took[...]
Read The Full Article:
Here are Sarah Palin's daily approval numbers from the Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll:Approve Disapprove No Opinion
In the span of five days, Palin has gone from +17 to +4 -- a statistically significant shift. This includes the Gibson interview as well as the media's sudden focus late last week on the Palin/McCain lies. In comparison, Biden is at 48/32/20, Obama is at 54/38/8, and McCain is at 51/45/4.
So Palin may not be the least popular of the four -- McCain is, but she is certainly the least liked of the four candidates, and given that both Obama and Biden are at +16 favorability, McCain's +6 and and Palin's +4 point to a fundamental weakness that will likely play a role moving forward.
How about McCain in that time period?
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
Not as dramatic a collapse as Palin, but still bleeding some popularity from the media's sudden focus on the dishonorable campaign McCain has run. (So dishonorable, remember, that even Karl Rove thinks the McCain/Palin campaign has gone too far. And Fox News too.)
And you can tell the Obama campaign senses an opportunity, since they're pressing the issue:
None of this should suggest that Palin has been a bad pick for McCain. His campaign would be dead in the water right now had he chosen Romney, Pawlenty or Lieberman. If nothing else, Palin has reengaged the Christian Right, and their grassroots capabilities can never be underestimated. She has brought back the GOP base. But it was still a hail mary pass, and now we get to see, as her record is fully aired, her initial popularity ebb away.
That may not have much of an effect on Republicans, who will shrug away every lie and distortion and smear as a necessary evil in pursuit of victory, but it will hopefully take its toll on McCain's still-significant support among independents and Democrats.
Update: I see tremayne over at Open Left saw the same trendlines.