Indiana Senate: Ellsworth, Hill, Weinzapfel Vie
for Democratic Line

post from Firedoglake on 15 February 2010 03:11:07 PM. © Firedoglake

Barring some miracle of Tamyra D'Ippolito qualifying for the primary ballot in the Indiana Senate race, it's likely that Indiana Democrats will be able, be virtue of having no primary candidates on the ballot, to select their own candidate for November,[...]

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http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/02/15/signs-point-to-ellsworth-as-in-sen-candida
te/

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Dallas' District 100 and My Own Pet Peeve

post from Everyday Citizen on 15 February 2010 03:06:43 PM. © Everyday Citizen

Whose the best candidate for District 100 in the Texas State Legislature? Terri Hodge or newcomer[...]

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http://www.everydaycitizen.com/2010/02/dallas_district_100_and_my_own.html

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Non-Strategic Retirement

post from FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right on 15 February 2010 03:02:00 PM. © FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right

Senator Bayh's retirement announcement reminds me of a point I've made before, which is that national swings between the two parties are amplified by politicians' natural tendency to stay put when things are going well and retire when the political climate looks stormy.

Here's the long version:

One thing I learned in econ class in 11th grade was that government policy should be counter-cyclical (spending more in recessions and cutting back in boom times), but that there?s a lot of pressure to be pro-cyclical, which will tend to exacerbate business cycles. (Except I suppose they didn?t say ?exacerbate? in 11th grade.) At a personal level, too, it?s natural to spend more when we have more and cut back when we aren?t doing so well. Every now and then you hear about a ?rainy day fund? but my general impression is that these are never big enough to counter the business cycle.

Political parties seem to apply a similar pro-cyclical behavior in their congressional election campaigns. Consider 2008, which was expected to be a good year for the Democrats, and so should've be the time for them to make some investments in new, young candidates. They should've encouraged lots of their incumbents to retire, because in 2008, they were set to win a lot of these districts without needing the incumbency advantage (estimated to be about 10% of the vote, i.e., enough to take you from 50% to 60%). Conversely, that was the time for the Republican Party to hold on to what it had, and to keep all their incumbents in, trying to hold out until 2010 when the pendulum might swing back in their favor. [Yes, I originally wrote this back in 2008. We could see the pendulum swing coming back then!]

But this sort of strategically-planned retirement doesn't actually occur. Actually, something like 30 Republican House members retired in 2008. Republicans retiring, Democrats sticking around?that was a recipe for big Democratic gains that year. But then in 2010, or 2014, or whatever year it is when the Democrats get wiped out?then a bunch of their incumbents will probably retire, and boy will the Democrats wished they had put in younger incumbents back in 2008 when they had a chance!

One of the difficulties here is that I?m talking about the long-term goals of the parties, but ?the parties? are, to a large extent, simply their officeholders. And congressmembers? incentives can be much different from those of the party as a whole. In particular, it makes sense that an incumbent congressmember will want to quit in a year when he or she would be facing a tough reelection battle, and when the prize for winning is to remain in the minority. Conversely, why step down when you?re facing an easy reelection and the prospect of some juicy committee assignments? So the individual officeholders have an incentive for pro-cyclical behavior, even if it harms their party?s long-term interest.

Beyond the benefits or lack thereof to the individual parties, pro-cyclical behavior would seem to increase the size of political changes, making the swings in congressional representation larger than would be expected simply based on swings in public opinion. Actually, many political scientists would consider this a good thing (an increased ?swing ratio?); my point here is that some of this swing is ?endogenous? in the sense of arising from pro-cyclical decisions of individual congressmembers deciding whether to run for reelection. It would be interesting to see if this happens with state legislatures as well.

We also see this in the Senate. For example, 84-year-old Frank Lautenberg ran for reelection in New Jersey in 2008. This in a Democratic year when the Democrats might have done well with just about anybody. (Or maybe not; I don?t really follow New Jersey politics and am just extrapolating from national polls.) In 2014, they?re going to need to find someone new, and at that point they might wish they had an incumbent already in the slot.

This year, Evan Bayh and other swing-state Democrats are retiring, and this sort of pro-cyclical behavior is set to amplify the national opinion swing and make the swing in congressional seats even larger than it otherwise would be.

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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/non-strategic-retirement.html

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Advocate mini-documentary: What Happened to 'Yes
We Can'

post from AMERICAblog News on 15 February 2010 03:01:52 PM. © AMERICAblog News

The Advocate's Washington reporter, Kerry Eleveld, produced a 12 minute documentary about the Human Rights Campaign and the Obama administration. Here is Kerry's description of the video:

Gay rights issues are languishing in Congress, even with President Obama in the White House and Democrats in control of Congress. And, as Washington correspondent Kerry Eleveld reports, many gay people are turning to the Human Rights Campaign and asking, ?What gives??

The video includes interviews with HRC President Joe Solmonese, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, HRC Foundation's Hilary Rosen, Act-UP founder Larry Kramer, and me. It's quite well done, and interesting. I recommend everyone watch this, and share it. It's really one of the best pieces I've seen to effectively crystallize where we stand vis-a-vis the White House, and vis-a-vis HRC, one year into Obama's term.

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ry-what-happened.html

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Bye Bye Bayh

post from OutrageNation on 15 February 2010 02:59:00 PM. © OutrageNation

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh used to be mentioned as a future President or VP. Today, he?s the party?s biggest cry baby and a soon-to-be ex-Senator. In the meantime, he has basically given away a fairly safe seat and made it nearly impossible to hold a party primary. Talk about your class A assholes.

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http://www.outrageradio.com/index.php?/weblog/entry/bye_bye_bayh/

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Midday Open Thread

post from Daily Kos on 15 February 2010 02:56:03 PM. © Daily Kos

One man's theory on Bayh's retirement: "It was just part of his journey towards the White House, a journey which he'll never complete."

Funny, in an orange-hued, Boehner kind of way.

Rachel Maddow ruled GOP Rep. Aaron Schock on MTP Sunday, in her ongoing effort to catalog the Republicans who take credit bac, in their districts for the stimulus after having voted against it. The DCCC has the video, and the GOP Hypocrisy Hall of Fame. I don't know if there's enough room in the Tubes for that Hall of Fame.

Did Goldman Sachs commit fraud, or was it just massive conflict of interest that has contributed to the destabilization of the world's financial system?

Well, really didn't go as planned.

The most popular sport in Europe:

[W]hen lycra-clad biathletes are flying through packed stadiums, shooting targets the size of golf balls from half a football field away – all while their heart is racing and their chest heaving – 20 million people across Europe tune in for the prime time coverage.

The Sierra Club is poised to hit the reset button on its environmental activism with a new president.

A French judge has issued an arrest warrant for American cyclist Floyd Landis, seeking to question him about a computer hacking job into the lab that analyzed the samples that found Floyd had abnormally elevated testosterone levels when he won the 2006 Tour de France.

Do you celebrate Presidents' Day? That depends on where you live. Regardless of what it's called and who it's honoring were you are, you can probably get a good deal on some furniture.

Glenn Greenwald asks some good questions:

Can someone please explain why Guantanamo can't be closed if Lindsey Graham gets angry? I genuinely don't understand that. By what mechanism can Lindsey Graham prevent the closure of Guantanamo? I'd really like to hear an explanation how that works. How can a single Senator in the minority party override or prevent the President's Order to close this DOD facility?

Time for a blogger ethics panel.

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http://feeds.dailykos.com/~r/dailykos/index/~3/IFVYPjAwRWM/-Midday-Open-Thread

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Last Minute Decision

post from Talking Points Memo on 15 February 2010 02:55:00 PM. © Talking Points Memo

From the Evansville Courier & Press ...Last Thursday, Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker said Bayh, whose campaign coffers are loaded with $13 million, was returning to Indiana this week to film commercials for his re-election campaign. The[...]

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ision.php

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IN-Sen: Please, for the love of God, don't help
Tamyra D'Ippolito get on the ballot

Just in case anyone out there was thinking about helping Tamyra D'Ippolito get on the ballot for[...]

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-the-lobe-of-god-dont-help-tamyra-dippolito-get-on-the-ballot

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Senate Candidate Tamyra DIppolito: Politics in
Indiana is the Old Boys School.

I just spoke with Tamyra D'Ippolito, the candidate who was already running in the US Senate primary as a Democrat in Indiana before Evan Bayh ended his re-election bid today. D'Ippolito's potential presence on the primary ballot complicates the ability[...]

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http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/02/15/tamyra-dippolito-politics-in-indiana-is-th
e-old-boys-school/

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Be Mine, Prez: BuzzFlash Staff Sends Their Love
to Dead Presidents

post from BuzzFlash.org - Progressive News and Commentary with an Attitude | Fight Ignorance: Read BuzzFlash on 15 February 2010 02:31:51 PM. © BuzzFlash.org - Progressive News and Commentary with an Attitude | Fight Ignorance: Read BuzzFlash

BUZZFLASH FUN

Here at BuzzFlash, we wanted to celebrate the sweetness of Valentine's Day with the approbation of Presidents' Day. Our customer service director Katy came up with the excellent idea to write love letters to U.S. presidents. Below you'll find our humble missives to former leaders of this great nation.

And feel free to add your own love letter to former a president by commenting below.

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http://blog.buzzflash.com/buzzflashfun/008

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