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Hillary's Take on the Electoral Map

post from TalkLeft on 09 May 2008 11:37:00 PM. © TalkLeft

From tomorrow's Christian Science Monitor: Hillary Campaign Advisors Wolfson and Garin say it's not that Obama can't win in November, it's that the data shows Hillary has a better chance:

At the top of the ballot, current state polling data show that Clinton would defeat Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, by 42 electoral votes, while the same polls show Obama losing to Senator McCain by 8 electoral votes, they said.

The Clinton strategists also came armed with charts looking at 20 House districts where freshmen Democrats won but which also voted for George Bush in 2004. Clinton defeated Obama in 16 of those 20 districts. Their argument: Clinton would help vulnerable House members more than Obama. Asked about the breakdown of endorsements from those 16 freshmen, Wolfson said that five had so far backed her and four, Obama.

As for how long she's staying in :[More]

"We do not believe a nominee will be chosen unless or until somebody gets to 2,209 [delegates], which is the number including Florida and Michigan. So if that has happened by June 3, then someone will be the nominee. If that hasn't, then the nomination fight continues," Howard Wolfson, Senator Clinton's communications director, told a Monitor-sponsored breakfast on Friday.

We are not oblivious to the environment in which we are operating. But this is very much like a tennis match," Clinton's chief strategist, Geoff Garin, told reporters at the breakfast. "Sometimes, even when people are down two sets to love and down a couple of games in the third set, they end up winning by the fifth set. So Senator Clinton goes on with the same energy and commitment."

Since the race is ongoing, and superdelegates can change their mind up until they vote at the convention in August, here are the voter registration numbers (pdf)for West Virgina.

Seems to me the critical thing now for Hillary is voter turnout. Obama is brushing off W.Va. and KY and hoping people won't turn out, thinking their vote doesn't matter. Their votes may matter. They matter in the popular vote total and because we don't have a nominee yet, no matter how many pundits, pollsters and journalists think we do.

It's over when one candidate drops out or delegates are counted at the convention in August: pledged, unpledged, add-on and superdelegates.

As for the current state of electoral votes, from my earlier post, with Obama winning N.C. but losing W.Va., I don't think he gets past 265 votes in November. He needs 270. With Hillary winning W.Va. but not N.C., her total is 317.

Remember, as to this latest month of primaries, Indiana, Kentucky, Montana and South Dakota will go Republican in November no matter who the nominee is. Only W. Va. and N. Carolina are battleground states. Oregon will go Democratic whoever wins.

The real question is who has a better chance of taking Ohio, PA and Florida? Together those three states have 68 electoral votes. N.C. has 15, W. Va has 5. Together, Colorado and N.M.have 14.

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http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TalkleftThePoliticsOfCrime/~3/287252577/2156

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Open Thread

post from Crooks and Liars on 09 May 2008 11:30:52 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Really Joe, have you checked on Dubya’s bearings lately? Madness of King George found at 2 Political Junkies. Open Thread below…

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http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/05/09/open-thread-803/

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Friday Night Fluff: Mike Rowe Edition

post from Moue Magazine on 09 May 2008 11:26:53 PM. © Moue Magazine

Mike Rowe is well known for being the host of Dirty Jobs and the narrator of… every other show on or associated with the Discovery Channel. But once upon a time (the early ’90s) he was a host on QVC, hawking… overpriced junk. The Mike[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://mouemagazine.wordpress.com/2008/05/09/friday-night-fluff-mike-rowe-edition
/

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What A Freakin Liar

post from MyDD on 09 May 2008 11:08:52 PM. © MyDD

Arianna Huffington made some waves this week when she revealed that John McCain, at a 2001 dinner party, told her and other guests that he hadn't voted for George W. Bush in 2000. While the McCain campaign is outright denying it, trying to smear Arianna[...]

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http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/mydd/~3/287240228/52561

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Late Night Music Club with The Velvet Underground

post from Crooks and Liars on 09 May 2008 11:00:25 PM. © Crooks and Liars

The Velvet Undergound’s 1967 semi-eponymous debut, The Velvet Underground and Nico is about as close to perfect as an album gets… at least in my book. Lou wrote “I’ll Be Your Mirror” for Nico after she said those words to him after a show one night. Do you have a favorite Velvets song?

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http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/05/09/late-night-music-club-with-the-velvet-un
derground/

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Late Night FDL: throwing mom under the bus, or
whats eating Boehner

post from Firedoglake on 09 May 2008 11:00:13 PM. © Firedoglake

Republicans in the House have been having a rolling temper tantrum for days. Why do you figure that is?[...]

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http://firedoglake.com/2008/05/09/late-night-fdl-throwing-mom-under-the-bus-or-wh
ats-eating-boehner/

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Friday Night Open Thread

post from TalkLeft on 09 May 2008 10:52:00 PM. © TalkLeft

By special request, here's another open thread.

I'm working on my outline for the NORML Aspen Legal Seminar which is due Tuesday. My topic this year: Crackadoodledoo! A New Dawn in Crack Cocaine Sentencing

I'll be back later to see how you are all doing.

Update: For any of you having trouble viewing comments as usual in closed threads or threads with more than 150 comments, Colin says:

go to your user preference page and set the comment display mode that you want for overflow comments. The formats are explained in the descriptive text immediately following the preference item 'Comment Display Mode (Overflow) - That description applies equally to the first preference item on the page, which controls the display mode to be used for threads of less than the overflow limit number of comments.

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http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TalkleftThePoliticsOfCrime/~3/287211760/47392

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Rasmussen to Stop Polling Hillary in Daily
Tracking Poll

post from TalkLeft on 09 May 2008 10:51:00 PM. © TalkLeft

Rasmussen polling says Hillary can't win, they are going to stop polling her and poll only Obama and McCain.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Barring something totally unforeseen, that is the choice American voters will have before them in November. While we have not firmly decided upon a final day for tracking the Democratic race, it is coming soon.

Today's Numbers: Hillary 48% to McCain 43%. Obama 47% to McCain 44%.

West VA: Hillary 56, Obama 27.

Gallup Daily: "Obama not pulling away yet". Dates polled, May 6 to May 8, 2/3 of whom were polled after Tuesday's election results were known. Obama 48, Hillary 46.

Gallup says "Obama remains in a statistical dead heat with Clinton for the 16th consecutive day."

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http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TalkleftThePoliticsOfCrime/~3/287225997/6045

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More On Psycho Ex-Girlfriends

Via Glenn Reynolds, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN), a Barack Obama supporter, trafficking in more sexism:

Memphis Commercial Appeal's Blake Fontenay: According to U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Memphis, she may be starting to more closely resemble another famous movie character: The psycho lady played by Glenn Close in "Fatal Attraction."

When asked about whether Clinton should drop out of the race on Fox 13's "Good Morning Memphis" program today, Cohen said: "Glenn Close should have stayed in that tub."

Nice. Sexism is the bigotry that has the imprimatur of respectability it seems.

By the way, for folks and bloggers who are getting tired of my harping on the rampant sexism directed at Hillary Clinton, I say this, when it stops, then I will stop.

Read The Full Article:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TalkleftThePoliticsOfCrime/~3/287225998/7961

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One Thing the Right Does Better Online: Spurious
Internet Rumours

McClatchy does some digging into the source of those "Obama is a secret muslim" emails we all love[...]

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http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/OpenLeft-FrontPage/~3/287247392/showDiary.do

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