Question for Karl Rove: In a two-person runoff, how do you figure that both candidates combined will only get 93% of the vote?
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AR-Sen results updates:
Update I: With actual totals that add up to 100%, it's 52.6% for Lincoln and 47.4% for Halter with 14.2% of the precincts reporting. Lincoln's lead is about 4,000 votes at this point.
Update II: With 18.8% in, it's Lincoln 52.4% and Halter 47.6%.
Update III: With 19.6% in, it's Lincoln 51.9% and Halter 48.1%.
Update IV: With 26.7% in, it's Lincoln 52% and Halter 48%.
Update V: Ambinder tweets "Most of AR is early vote, so don't start extrpolating just yet." (Update: DavidNYC notes that it's 20% of the vote, which is substantial, but not most.)
Republican Bob Inglis is a pol in peril. As of this writing, it appears likely that he will lose his seat in South Carolina?s 4th Congressional District. In a crowded field of challengers--now with 83 percent of precincts reporting--he has only 26.2[...]
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Lots of states are holding primaries today. Swing State Project has early returns in many House district primaries. We'll update this thread later with more results. For now, it looks like Senator Blanche Lincoln is going to hold on to win the Arkansas[...]
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Right now, Lincoln leads 53.5 to Halter's 46.5 with just 0.3 percent reporting.
Update: Lincoln 53.7 to 46.3, with 2% in.
Chuck Todd, on my seat-back TV, says that the Democratic establishment in DC is "anguished" about this primary challenge. Maybe they should've been "anguished" about Lincoln's sabotaging of the Democratic agenda. Too bad they didn't give a shit about that.
Update II: THIS is genuinely worrisome -- Halter won Ouachita County narrowly three weeks ago, 43-42-15. Right now, with 40% in, Lincoln is winning it 56-44.
Update III: Scott County, three weeks ago: 46H-34L-20M. With almost all votes in, Halter wins it narrowly, 51.5- 48.5. Only 250 total votes cast, so small county, but a sign that Lincoln is picking up some late undecideds and/or Morrison voters.
Update IV: Halter isn't lagging everywhere. In Saint Frances County, Halter leads 56-44 with 10% in. Three weeks ago, it was 48H-44L-8M.
Update V: Ack, initial decent into SFO. I'll have to sign off in a few.
Update VI: 4.3% in, Lincoln 53.2-46.8.
Update VII: Calhoun County is the first to report 100% in -- Halter wins it 58.2-41.8. Three weeks ago, it was 47H-30L-24M. The margin remained the same.
Update VIII: 7.9% in, Lincoln 52.7-47.3.
Update VIX: Scott County was apparently an error. It's been fixed. Halter winning it 56-44. So a little less worried.
Yes. You read that right.
Alvin Greene, a 32-year-old unemployed veteran, will face teabagger hero (loser) Jim DeMint in the general election. Obviously, this is a strong blow against the Dems and pretty much seals the victory for DeMint.
How this happened, however, is still a mystery. In South Carolina, you cannot vote back and forth in a primary. It has to be either or. So, unless DeMint and the GOP got scared and asked people to skew the results in certain areas of the state, it's a guess at this point. Although, my e-mailbox has been filling up with messages that allege too many items were taken for granted in the race.
Democratic Party Chairwoman Carol Fowler says she hasn't seen Greene since he filed to run. She says Greene will be a much weaker candidate than Rawl going into November against tea party favorite DeMint.
She says people who didn't know either candidate and voted alphabetically may help explain Greene's win.
9:36 PM: More of this craziness? There's 72% of the precincts reporting in South Carolina and Nikki Haley is at 49% of the vote. But remember, she's got to get to 50% plus 1 vote to avoid a run-off. She's crept up a bit over the last hour or so. 9:32[...]
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Gov. Haley Barbour was still living in a state called denial during his appearance on Fox News Sunday when he proclaimed that the media was doing more damage than the oil disaster to Mississippi.
"Well, the truth is, Chris, we have had virtually no oil," Barbour told Fox News' Chris Wallace Sunday.
..."The average viewer to this show thinks that the whole coast from Florida to Texas is ankle-deep in oil," he said.
"Our tourist season has been hurt by the misperception of what is going on down here. The Mississippi Gulf Coast is beautiful. As I tell people, the coast is clear. Come on down!"
They may not be "ankle-deep in oil" yet, but it looks like Waveland, Mississippi is ankle-deep in dead fish. I'm sure Haley will just tell us this is naturally occurring as well.
h/t Think Progress who has The pictures BP doesn?t want you to see: Round 2.
Click here for full size image.
I was reading Tenpa over at Digital Tibetan Buddhist Altar. A few days earlier he made a call to action over an important Buddhist monument, a stupa in Albuquerque, New Mexico, that the National Parks Service was about to demolish.I was happy to[...]
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I won't be able to take a break for burrito nuking tonight, as I did three weeks ago, as I'm currently 35,000 feet above middle America. On-flight internet is the best technological development since the DVR.
So I'll be covering Arkansas election results from mid-air until I get cut off on the approach to SFO. For now, the polls have closed in the state.
For Lincoln, she was able to vote this time without casting a provisional ballot. That was progress, compared to three weeks ago when she discovered, at her polling place, that her ballot was actually sent to her Virginia mansion. That was embarrassing! Today, she successfully pretended to be an Arkansas resident. Mission accomplished, Blanche!
Now it's time to count the votes. Soon, we'll know whether we have a fighting chance to hold Arkansas this November, or whether we can cede it to the GOP and move on to winnable races. That choice will have been made by the Arkansas Democratic electorate.
Update: I'm getting my results from Politico's election map.
Update II: PANIC!!!! Lincoln is up 54-46!!!! Hyperventilating with recycled airplane air is kind of gross, so I'll calm down. Just a shade above 0 percent of precincts have reported.
While the returns from South Carolina are developing at a glacial pace, there is one unique result developing: there might not need to be a Democratic runoff, but there may need to be one on the Republican side.
Despite having twenty-plus point leads in polling, Nikki Haley currently leads right-wing Congressman Gresham Barrett by just thirteen points (42-29). Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, state senator Vincent Sheheen is lapping the field in early returns, winning with 56% of the vote. State Education Chief Jim Rex trails at 25%, with state Senator Robert Ford at 19%.
In other Palmetto State races: (1) AP has already declared Jim DeMint the winner on the GOP side, but an upset might be brewing on the Democratic side where presumptive frontrunner Victor Rawl is trailing Alvin Greene (59-41). (2) Returns are very early on the House level, but runoffs in the 1st and 3rd districts seem likely on the GOP side. Meanwhile, with only one precinct in, incumbent Republican Bob Inglis (SC-04) is getting blasted (66-17) by Trey Gowdy. Only a handful of votes have been tallied, though.
UPDATE (5:19 PM): Meanwhile, back in the Commonwealth of Virginia, the two other key races for November have also been called by AP. Scott Rigell has won the GOP nomination in VA-02, while Keith Fimian will get another crack at Democrat Gerry Connolly in VA-11.