PLEASE NOTE - This is not an open thread and is intended for diaries and discussion of downticket races.
For all the introductory stuff and links to previous diaries in the series, please look below the fold...
This Rescue Diary covers the period from 12:00 Noon, Tuesday, 11/4 to 12:00 Noon EST, Wednesday, 11/5
Today's Menu Includes :
73 Diaries Overall
- 14 On House races
- With 10 covering individual Districts in 10 states
- 13 On Senate races
- Representing 6 different states
- 19 On Various election races and ballot issues
- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more
- 27 General election-related diaries
"The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there."- President-Elect Barack Obama - November 4, 2008
Follow us for more, come on in............
Is the conservative movement going to throw Sarah Palin under the bus? Let her take the blame -- some of which she rightfully deserves -- for McCain's loss? Yesterday I would have said No. One of the few truisms of this election is that the conservative[...]
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The hockey team has the best player in the world, and still is mighty disappointing.
The football team was manhandled by the Steelers. The general manager drafted three receivers to beef up the catching capability and none of them can play. The Steelers stacked the line and stifled the offense.
The baseball team did everyone a favor by not drawing audiences. And their stadium is really ugly.
And tonight the basketball team folded in the fourth quarter to lose their third game in a row. In fact, the Wizards are zero for the season. They are quite terrible: disorganized, sloppy, and even their stars are playing very poorly. They look like a lottery team to me.
I told them not to sign Arenas, but they paid no attention; they shouldn't have kept Jamieson either but they gave him a huge contract too. Butler made serious mistakes at critical moments tonight in Milwaukee; he doesn't seem to be able to carry the team. The first and second year players aren't able to stay on the court. Of course the biggest problem is that there's no one in the middle who can get the rebounds and play defense. This has been a big problem for years, and has been ignored for years. The second biggest problem is that there's no good point guard. Why can't they get the players they need?
Somebody needs to get the industrial-strength Drano. There's a clod lodged in there real good.[...]
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Betsy and I were there. We were bowled over by the meaning of the event, much more than we thought we would be. We are quite confident Barack will be a great President, since he has just run the single best Presidential campaign in the history of our country.
I want to say this evening that I’m an American citizen and a citizen of the world as well. I’m a citizen of the United States because the wheel came up on my number and I was born here. I’m citizen of the world because we all are and because we all matter. Existence itself is [...]
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Am I missing something or are there like four or five completely independent reasons not to appoint Larry Summers Treasury Secretary? I'm really having a hard time understanding this one. Just at the level of optics, since the economy is issue number[...]
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Even here in Barcelona, I was impressed to see so many stations (was it 3 or 4?) with coverage throughout the night. I flipped channels until around 2 AM or so and the local channels were still discussing every inch of the campaign and showing interviews and updates from Chicago and Arizona. On Wednesday morning the talk for the Americans over here was all about the election results but the same was true of the EMEA folks that I met. Even they talked about shedding a few tears as they watched Obama speak. I have not yet read any statistics for overseas yet but won't be surprised if similar ratings were experienced as well. It looks as though all news outlets did well, or at least almost all of them.
Joelle took Champagne to the office to toast with her coworkers and they ended up talking about the results and what they meant for the US and for France. That discussion went on for an hour, people were so excited. What an amazing day.
The big news about the youth vote today, of course, is that those aged 18-29 went 2-1 (66% to 32%) for Barack Obama. The split in the overall vote for Obama was just 52% to 46%. This difference in presidential choice by age is unprecedented. From 1976 through 2004, the gap was only 1.8 percentage points, with young voters supporting the same candidate as older voters in most elections.
The somewhat heartening news is that youth voters in California were the only demographic to vote against the unAmerican Proposition 8, which means the foes of equal rights are going to lose in the long run. Not at all soothing for those who may not be able to exercise their full rights for a decade or two, but better than the alternative. Moreover, maybe young people will be able to educate or shame their elders into wising up in this matter.
To demonstrate just how startling the youth vote divergence was on Tuesday, here is the Democratic presidential candidate's share of the youth vote (based on exit polls) vs. the Democrat's share of the total popular vote for the past nine elections:
Youth Voters Overall
1976 51% 50%
1980 44% 41%
1984 40% 40.4%
1988 47% 45.5%
1992 43% 42.9%
1996 53% 49.2%
2000 48% 48.3%
2004 54% 48.1%
2008 66% 52%
However, one of the continuing themes this year (one that skeptical long-time observers have heard a few times before) is that this would be a blow-out election for the youth vote, surpassing, perhaps far surpassing, the record turnout of young voters that occurred in 1972, the first year 18-year-olds could cast ballots in a presidential election.
Until we get closer to having all the ballots counted for the 2008 election, we won't have a good handle on how many young citizens actually voted. That will surely be days, possibly weeks, from now. For the moment, two things are apparent. The numbers and percentages of voter-eligible youth who cast ballots were up, continuing a welcome trend that started four years ago. But young voters failed to beat the record percentage their predecessors set in 1972.
Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement is the go-to place for in-depth information about the youth vote. Today, CIRCLE preliminarily estimated that 21.6 million to 23.9 million voters ages 18-29 turned out for this election. That's based on a possible range of 120 million to 133 million turnout of all voters. We're at the lower end of that estimate now, and nobody knows for sure how many votes are left to count.
Whatever the case, the increase of young voters is at least 2.2 million over the numbers for 2004, which was a year of significant increase itself.
CIRCLE projects the youth voter turnout will be between 49.3% and 54.5%, an increase of 1 to 6 percentage points over CIRCLE’s estimate based on the 2004 exit polls. The 2004 election was a strong one for youth turnout, reversing a long history of decline. If we compare 2008 with 2000, the increase in youth turnout is between 8 and 13 percentage points. CIRCLE will replace projections with actual vote counts once most precincts have reported, including absentee ballots. Depending on the final vote tally, this year’s youth turnout could be the second highest since 1972 (55.4%) [My boldface - MB]
The recent turnout percentages and numbers for youth voters: 1996 - 37% (14.5 million); 2000 - 41% (16.2 million); 2004 - 48% (19.4 million).
It should be noted that the voter turnout of those ages 18-24 is always at least slightly lower than of those ages 18-29.
Calculating the youth vote always results in no more than an estimate because not all states record age data for voters in all states. CIRCLE thus relies on surveys to estimate youth turnout, those being the National Exit Polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky and the Census Bureau’s November Current Population Survey (CPS).
Right after the election, exit polls are the only data source available for making the youth voter estimates. But exit polls are limited because some voters refuse to answer them and surveys at polling places don't take into account early or absentee voters. The CPS data are better. Every year, the Census Bureau samples more than 50,000 Americans, asking about voting participation, registration, citizenship, and other background factors. This survey is more extensive than the exit polls, but it also has limitations. For instance, respondents may be more likely to say that they voted even if they did not. Whatever the value and limits, the Census data won't be available until 2009.
We knew beforehand that the Latino vote was going to be a major player in the 2008 election.
And they were:
About two-thirds of Hispanics voted for Obama, decisively surpassing the 53 percent who voted for Democrat John Kerry in 2004, exit polls showed. That year Bush enjoyed a high-water mark of GOP support from Hispanics with 44 percent of the vote from the nation's fastest growing ethnic group.
America's Voice reports in a press release:
CO: The Latino vote in CO grew from 8% of the state?s electorate in 2004 to 17% in 2008. Obama gained support of 73% of CO Latinos ? key to his 53-46% victory in the state, as well as the Udall Senate victory.
FL: The Latino vote?s shift towards the Democrats was essential in Obama?s win. FL Latinos broke 56-44% for Bush in 2004 and 57-42% for Obama in 2008.
NM: Latinos comprised 41% of the NM 2008 electorate ? a jump from their 32% in 2004. Latinos in NM supported Obama 69-30% -- a big jump from 56-44% support for Kerry. NM Latinos? trend towards Democrats played a huge role in the Presidential race and in handing the open Senate seat and two Congressional races (NM-1 and NM-2) to the Democrats.
NV: Latinos in NV supported Kerry 60-39% in 2004 and Obama 78-20% in 2008. Latinos in NV also increased from 10% of electorate in ?04 to 16% in 2008, and played a key role in handing the NV-3 Congressional seat to the Democrats.
This all happened, as a few news stories noted, because of the Republican brand -- not just the conservative malfeasance in handling of the economy, but most of all the flaming bigotry that the GOP provided a cozy political home for these past several years.
Also, McCain's two-faced strategy was a loser from the outset.