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Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 11/4/09

post from Daily Kos on 04 November 2009 10:25:15 PM. © Daily Kos

There are a small handful of items today to report, but (of course) most of today's political news is about Campaign 2009, and can be found all over the front page.

I guess now is as good a time as any to start looking at Campaign 2010.

Well, if you want to gloat for a second longer about the Democrats winning a House seat in territory a Democrat hasn't won since he won it by railing against Abraham Lincoln, then be my guest.

(Especially since the traditional media is all but ignoring it, since it doesn't fit into their tidy "Obama is doooooooomed" narrative)

On with the Wrap!

THE ROAD TO 2010: Cook Report Senses Mood...Shifts 7 Gov Races
Charlie Cook and his team seem to have learned a lesson from yesterday, and it isn't the "OMG!! Republicans Cool Again!! Democrats Dooooomed!!" tripe that much in the so-called liberal media trotted out. They surmised, correctly, that it is a really bad time to be the incumbent party in gubernatorial elections (a point made here on DK several months ago). To that end, they revised their 2010 race ratings for seven gubernatorial races, putting the incumbent party (even in open seat) in more peril. Four of the seats were Republican, three were Democratic.

KY-Sen: Could NRSC Golden Boy Grayson Be Getting Scozzafava'd?
A fascinating new poll was released on Election Day by the team at SurveyUSA (who, by the way, had an excellent 2009 polling cycle). They poll Kentucky, and they find Rand Paul out in front of GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson by three points in a GOP primary election. They also find, as they have before, Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo with a lead over Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic Primary, a fact confirmed by Conway's own internal polling. The odd thing: Paul and Mongiardo are weaker in the general election trial heats than the men they vanquish in the primary polling. The only Democratic path to a pickup there, at present, would be in a battle between Jack Conway and Rand Paul (Conway leads by 5 in such a matchup).

PA-Gov: Corbett About To Get Scozzafava'd?
Apparently concluding that both presumptive GOP primary frontrunner Tom Corbett and moderate Congressman Jim Gerlach are just not authentically conservative enough, right wing state legislator Sam Rohrer is looking to add his voice to the Republican gubernatorial primary in Pennsylvania. Rohrer has a reputation in Harrisburg for being staunchly conservative. The Democratic primary is already a multi-candidate mess, but Corbett looked like he might benefit from an easily dispatched challenge to his left from Gerlach, which would keep him clean for the general without having to burnish his right-wing bonafides. A challenge like Rohrer's, even if he is a little known state representative, could prove troubling for the frontrunner.

MA-Sen: Front-Runner's Privilege
In the Democratic primary for Ted Kennedy's open seat, polling has put Attorney General Martha Coakley clearly in the lead. That has enabled her to wait until this week to begin running ads on television, whereas rivals Mike Capuano and Steve Pagliuca have been advertising for some time now. - Laura Clawson

NH-02: Swetting It?
When Paul Hodes announced he was running for the open Senate seat in New Hampshire, it was widely assumed that Katrina Swett and her $900,000 cash on hand would get into the race to replace him. Heck, sources said she would in February. Then come June, she was seriously considering it. Meanwhile, Ann McLane Kuster has had time to build a campaign, amass $260k cash on hand herself, and get the EMILY's List endorsement. Now Swett is once again making noises like she's getting in, claiming that internal polling gives her a 20 point lead. If Swett runs, she'll position herself clearly to the right of Kuster, and can be expected to garner at least tacit support from some within the state's Democratic party establishment. Her fundraising prospects are dimmer than they were in her previous runs for office, though, given the death of her father, Tom Lantos. - Laura Clawson

IN OTHER NEWS....

In one little bit of 2009 housekeeping, apparently Republican Susan Hutchison has formally conceded to Democrat Dow Constantine in the King County Executive's race, a race that drew a bit of attention here at Daily Kos.

Interesting local flavor from Colorado: will the Hoffman/Scozzafava fiasco in New York mean that the NRSC will no longer back Jane Norton's candidacy in Colorado. It sure looks like it.

One of the more amazing stories you'll read out of the 2009 Election Night. Guess every vote does count.

Right-winger Jim DeMint wants to get all "Scozzafavy" in California, backing the insurgent Republican over the establishment candidate in the battle to face U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer.

Read The Full Article:
http://feeds.dailykos.com/~r/dailykos/index/~3/uymlRKahMsg/-Polling-and-Political
-Wrap-Up,-11-4-09

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Cornyn Forced by Teabagger Base to Keep NRSC out
of Senate Primaries

post from Firedoglake on 04 November 2009 10:16:16 PM. © Firedoglake

In the wake of last night's disaster in NY-23, John Cornyn, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the GOP campaign arm for Senate races, announced that his organization will not endorse or spend money in "contested primaries."[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/11/04/cornyn-forced-by-teabagger-base-to-keep-nr
sc-out-of-senate-primaries/

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A Late Wrap on New Jersey/Virginia

post from DemConWatch on 04 November 2009 10:16:02 PM. © DemConWatch

After examining the polling in both states for the better part of five months, it is fairly clear that these races have virtually no national implications. In New Jersey, the election last night was as much about Jon Corzine as 2006 and 2008 were about George W. Bush. That is to say that each was about an unpopular incumbent. Corzine had not, as FHQ mentioned yesterday, broken the 45% barrier in polling all year and he needed to round his percentage of the vote share up to get there last night. The Democrat's chances hinged completely upon Chris Daggett's ability to siphon off votes from Christie and make 44 or 45% the winning total. When Daggett came up well short of where FHQ and most other monitors expected the independent to end up (He pulled in about half of his expected share; 5%.), Corzine basically had no chance. As was talked about on The Monkey Cage earlier today, someone viewed negatively and behind in the polls has to attack and bring his or her opponent down to their level. Lee Seligman put it better: "It’s not so much that attackers lose as that losers attack." Corzine had to attack, but in the end couldn't bring Christie down to a beatable level.

The end result in Virginia was the same -- the Republican won -- but the process of getting there was very different. I don't think that Chris Christie or Jon Corzine were particularly great candidates, but in the commonwealth, Bob McDonnell just outclassed Creigh Deeds as a candidate. McDonnell basically held an advantage throughout the year no matter which Democratic candidate was pitted against him; an advantage that crescendoed rapidly when the votes began to be cast a day ago. Deeds, seeing that McDonnell had been spotted an edge, was essentially in the same position John McCain was in a year ago relative to Barack Obama, except the Democrat was without a presidential-level campaign team. [I'm not talking about folks from within the Obama administration. I'm talking about campaign staff that is steeped in experience. McCain had that. Deeds did not.] FHQ isn't here to throw Deeds under the bus. I just think that McDonnell was in the position of being able to take the high road (as most frontrunners are) through the thesis ordeal. Deeds' campaign, meanwhile, latched onto that story and quickly became associated with it to the point that once the issue faded there was no previously constructed message on which Deeds could lean.

One other thing that might also be mentioned (that I haven't seen discussed anywhere) is how the primaries in this race played out. The parties tinkering with their presidential nomination rules would be wise to take note of this. FHQ won't argue that the Democratic primary battle hurt Deeds. It didn't. But Bob McDonnell was ceded the Republican nomination. In the absence of competition, the former attorney general was never forced to run to the right. Not only did that not provide Deeds or any other Democrat with any fodder for the general election campaign, but it also helped McDonnell, even with the thesis out in the open, to foster a more moderate image. In the end, it isn't the primary battle that's negative so much as the easy road to nomination is beneficial.
Fine, both New Jersey and Virginia were "all politics is local" elections. They were, but they weren't without their cautionary tales for next year's midterm elections. Neither race or outcome is a harbinger, at least not directly, but the underlying numbers present the Democratic Party with a real problem. Let's look at the numbers from 2008 and 2009. No, I don't think that is a fair comparison either, but I did want to compare the level of drop-off from last year to this year across parties. In other words, how much bigger was the drop-off difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates at the top of the ballot?

2009 New Jersey & Virginia Voting Drop-Off (vs. 2008)
State
2008
2009*
Drop-Off
Virginia
Obama: 1,959,532
McCain: 1,725,005
Deeds: 774,676
McDonnell: 1,100,470
Dem: 1,184,856
GOP: 624,535
Total:
3,684,537
1,875,146
New Jersey
Obama: 2,215,422
McCain: 1,613,207
Corzine: 1,048,697
Christie: 1,148,651
Dem: 1,166,725
GOP: 464,556
Total:
3,828,629
2,197,348
*Numbers may have changed slightly since these data were collected on the afternoon of Nov. 4, 2009.
Sources: NJ 2008, 2009; VA 2008, 2009

In both cases, turnout dropped by approximately 50% from 2008 to 2009. But the difference between the way in which the number of votes decreased was not uniformly distributed across each party. These are aggregate numbers, so were not talking about the same people in 2008 and 2009, per se. However, it is more than obvious that the Republican Party maintained more of its voters than did the Democrats. In Virginia, Deeds could only hold about 40% of Obama's voters from a year ago. McDonnell, on the other hand, was able to maintain about two-thirds the level of McCain voters. The story in New Jersey was similar. Corzine held but 47% of Obama's level of turnout to Christie's 71% of McCain's.

But that's not all. Some of the exit polling was noteworthy as well. Race actually didn't play that big a role in either state, for instance. The African American share of the electorate on Tuesday was actually higher in New Jersey (14%) than it was in 2008 (12%). In Virginia, there was a decrease in the black share from 20% a year ago to 16% yesterday, and Deeds got the same 92% of those voters that Obama got in 2008. The exit polling breaks on age were also interesting. McDonnell won every age group on Virginia (not surprising when you win by 17 points), while Obama lost narrowly among 40-49 year old and over 65 year old Virginians. In New Jersey, Obama just lost among the senior set while Christie only lost among the very youngest (18-29) group.

The real difference, though, was in the partisan make up of the 2008 versus 2009 electorates (at least through the lens of the exit polling conducted).

2008 vs. 2009 Exit Polling in NJ & VA (Party ID)
State
2009
2008
New Jersey
41% D
31% R
28% I*
44% D
28% R
28% I*
Virginia
33% D
37% R
30% I**
39% D
33% R
27% I**
*Christie won independents 60-30. Obama won them 51-47 over McCain.
**McDonnell won independents 66-33. Obama won them 49-48 over McCain.
Sources: CNN (NJ and VA) -- 2008, New York Times (NJ and VA) -- 2009

That paints a fairly stark contrast between the two elections. Republicans made up a larger share of the electorate in 2009 and both Republican gubernatorial candidates ran away with the independent vote. If yesterday's results mean anything for 2010, it is that the Democrats may have an enthusiasm gap riddle to solve between now and next year this time. FHQ still contends that these elections were decided based on local forces, but the tie that binds them is the fact that Democrats seemingly sat these races out. Resting up for 2010, or simply complacent post-2008? That is the question.

Outside of that, I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out what a pro-medical marijuana/anti-same sex marriage voter in Maine looks like. Politics is great.

Cross-posted at Frontloading HQ.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.Demconwatchblog.com/diary/2719/a-late-wrap-on-new-jerseyvirginia

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FOX News Ratings Spike Not True

post from Crooks and Liars on 04 November 2009 10:15:51 PM. © Crooks and Liars

Eric Boehlert:

Fact: The breathless claim that Fox News' ratings recently spiked thanks to the White House's public critique is bogus hype -- hype that Fox News and the Beltway press have relentlessly pushed.
It's just not true...read on

Read The Full Article:
http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/fox-news-ratings-spike-not-true

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Changiness

post from Docudharma - Front Page on 04 November 2009 10:09:53 PM. © Docudharma - Front Page

OFA Email (h/t John Aravosis @ AmericaBlog).Friend --One year ago today, you made history.We all knew that electing Barack Obama President was only the opportunity to bring about change; that we would all have to keep working to fulfill the promise our[...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Docudharma/~3/hUu3igYr-uQ/changiness

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Values and Hypocrisy

post from Taylor Marsh on 04 November 2009 10:05:57 PM. © Taylor Marsh

All that persecution Miss Prejean cried about. She should get an award for her performances. You just can’t make this stuff up. Carrie Prejean has a homemade sex tape. Well, of course she does. TMZ has the goods and some great pictures of Prejean.[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://www.taylormarsh.com/2009/11/04/values-and-hypocrisy/

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Overnight Caption Contest

post from Docudharma - Front Page on 04 November 2009 10:01:14 PM. © Docudharma - Front Page

[...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Docudharma/~3/xCUXjsmTjCU/overnight-caption-contes
t-new

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Overnight Caption Contest (new)

[...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Docudharma/~3/xCUXjsmTjCU/overnight-caption-contes
t-new

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Fox 'News' Proves Its Bias Extends Into News
Segments to Win BuzzFlash's Media Putz Award

post from BuzzFlash.org - Progressive News and Commentary with an Attitude | Fight Ignorance: Read BuzzFlash on 04 November 2009 10:00:05 PM. © BuzzFlash.org - Progressive News and Commentary with an Attitude | Fight Ignorance: Read BuzzFlash

BUZZFLASH MEDIA PUTZ OF THE WEEK

Fox "News"

For reporting that is an embarrassment to the profession of journalism, and for being beholden to corporate paymasters rather than the citizens of America.

video details and more

The MSM loves to tell us that there is Fox "News" with O'Reilly, Hannity, and Beck and then there's Fox "News" on the rest of the time. Fair and Balanced.

Hmmm, well, based on what we've seen lately from the "news" part of Fox "News," their argument is as thin as the pastrami in a New York City deli.

Chris Wallace is seen as the legitimate face of Fox "News." After all, Wallace, son of a real journalist in Mike Wallace, has hosted "Meet the Press" on NBC and was on "Primetime Thursday" on ABC. Certainly, Fox plays that up when accused of news bias.

Here was the chance, the ultimate chance, to toss a few hard questions to Rush Limbaugh, prove the naysayers wrong, show them that Fox has a real news department.

Read The Full Article:
http://blog.buzzflash.com/honors/242

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