Tracking the Stimulus

Decided to take a look at the website: Recovery.gov. I was interested to find a very detailed [to[...]

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http://www.everydaycitizen.com/2009/11/tracking_the_stimulus.html

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Election Night Thread #2: McDonnell Projected VA
Winner; NJ Gov. Race Too Close to Call

Polls in New Jersey and Maine are now closed.Leaked exit polls show New Jersey to be basically a tie, FWIW. There are no exit polls out of Maine. Virginia remains too early to call, which shocks me. The networks are being ultra-cautious. The latest[...]

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http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/11/03/election-night-thread-2/

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Media in 2001: Off-year elections have little
national significance

Conservative media are attempting to use the results of gubernatorial elections to suggest President Obama's agenda and Democrats' 2010 electoral prospects are in trouble. In the wake of Bob McDonnell's apparent victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race, Media Matters has documented examples of media arguing that Democratic victories in 2001 had little national significance.

Media figures attempt to cast gubernatorial races as referendum on national progressive agenda

Fox News graphic: If GOP wins Va., NJ governors races, "no gov't-run option" in health care reform. As an example, during the November 2 edition of Fox News' Your World with Neil Cavuto, an on screen graphic read: "If GOP wins both races" in Virginia and New Jersey, "Impact on health care: no govt-run option." [Your World with Neil Cavuto, 11/2/09]

In 2001, commentators argued Dem wins in NJ and VA had little national significance

Mort Kondracke: "We have no way of knowing" how 2001 outcome would affect 2002 midterms. On November 5, 2001, Mort Kondracke commented: "I don't know what effect this will have on the 2002 election. And the 2002 election is -- could be decided on the basis of terrorism, and the fact that law enforcement -- the Republicans have an advantage in defense and law enforcement. And the Democrats, if it's a lousy economy, that may be the big issue. We have no way of knowing." Kondracke continued: "But the history of the matter is that in 2002 the chances are that the party in control of the White House will lose. It's almost -- lose seats, yes, in the House and Senate. In which case, the Republicans could lose control of the House." (Fox News' Special Report with Brit Hume, 11/5/2001; via the Nexis database)

Mara Liasson: "A handful of off-year elections can't be used to predict" outcome of 2002 midterms. On November 7, 2001, Mara Liasson said: "A handful of off-year elections can't be used to predict what may happen next year when all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate is up for election. But last night Democrats proved they could run to the middle and keep their base in both a conservative state like Virginia and a classic swing state like New Jersey." (NPR's Morning Edition, 11/7/2001; via Nexis)

Dick Morris: "If you have a Republican president, people are going to vote Democrat, and if you have a Democrat president, they're going to vote Republicans." On November 6, 2001, Dick Morris said of the "two Democratic victories" in New Jersey and Virginia: "If you have a Republican president, people are going to vote Democrat, and if you have a Democrat president, they're going to vote Republicans. That's why the Republicans got 37 governorships while Clinton was president." Morris added: "[N]ow the Democrats are picking them all off because Bush is president. People want divided government, and that's what you're seeing, and that's what you will see in '02, a Democratic trend, not because they don't like Bush" (Fox News' Hannity & Colmes, 11/6/2001; via Nexis)

David Broder highlighted the difference between open gubernatorial races and congressional races with "popular incumbents." On November 6, 2001, David Broder said in an appearance on CNN: "The striking thing about these races was that Republicans did not have incumbents to run, and the candidates that they came up with as the successors that they hoped to elect were -- did not have nearly the breadth of appeal, not nearly the personalities of the people that they were trying to sec -- to replace." He continued: "And that carries some warning signs, I think, perhaps more for next year's governors' races where the Republicans will be in the same position, trying to replace popular incumbents, not so much in the congressional races where we expect most of the incumbents will be running again." (CNN's Greenfield at Large, 11/6/2001; via Nexis)

Michael Barone: "I don't think that the issues and personalities" in Virginia and New Jersey races "are going to be congruent with very many" races in 2002 or 2004. On November 5, 2001, Michael Barone said: "[I]f you're talking about a harbinger -- are the odd-year elections a harbinger of the off-year elections and the presidential-year elections, I think the answer is, only to the extent that the issues and personalities are congruent." He later added: "I don't think that the issues and personalities in that race in Virginia or in New Jersey are going to be congruent with very many Congressional and House and Senate races in '02, or the presidential race in '04." [Special Report, 11/5/2001; via Nexis)

Laura Ingraham: "Both sides are going to spin this," but "to call this some kind of watershed moment against Republican views is nonsense." On November 7, 2001, Laura Ingraham said of the election results: "Both sides are going to spin this, Alan [Colmes], but to say -- to call this some kind of watershed moment against Republican views is nonsense." (Hannity & Colmes, 11/7/2001; via Nexis)

Similarly, some media have warned against reading too much into 2009 races in NJ, VA

WSJ: "[I]solated, off-year contests aren't always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years." In a November 3 article, The Wall Street Journal noted that "isolated, off-year contests aren't always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years." Observing that "Democrats and Republicans are jostling to glean messages" from the races, the article pointed out that "it can be difficult to draw broader conclusions from off-year contests, which often turn on local issues. ... Each of Tuesday's three high-profile races has unique factors that could confound efforts to discern national trends."

Christian Science Monitor report highlights the importance of local issues in NJ, VA. In a November 2 article, The Christian Science Monitor noted that "the big issue in New Jersey is property taxes -- the highest in the country," while in Virginia, "the big local issue is transportation" as well as "quality of the candidates."

David Frum said claim that a Republican sweep would be "a mighty victory for the fire-breathing style" of conservatism "is a deeply unrealistic assessment." In a November 2 blog post, conservative columnist and former Bush speechwriter David Frum wrote: "Conservatives on radio and the web are preparing to hail a Doug Hoffman victory in NY-23, if it occurs, as a mighty victory for the fire-breathing style." Frum added: "This is a deeply unrealistic assessment. In two of the three most watched races in the country, the candidate of the president's party is running neck and neck against his main challenger -- in the midst of the worst recession since World War II. This is what you call a conservative politics that is "working"? What would it look like if conservative politics were failing?" [Emphasis in original]

Chuck Todd: "[T]hese races say much more about Deeds/McDonnell or Corzine/Christie than they do about Obama." From Todd's November 3 blog post:

If Democrats lose in New Jersey and Virginia, that certainly would be a shot in the arm for a Republican Party that hasn't fared well in the in the past two election cycles (losing control of Congress and the White House). That outcome also could give Democrats pause that the voter coalition that propelled Obama to victory last year (liberals, young voters, minorities, independents) appears dormant or is no longer intact. But is that a referendum on Obama? Not so much. For starters, how much does Creigh Deeds losing in Virginia say about Obama, when the president's approval rating in the state is at 57% among registered voters and 54% among likely voters, according to the most recent Washington Post poll? And if Jon Corzine's favorable rating in the Quinnipiac poll was at 38% back in March (near the height of Obama's honeymoon), and it's at 39% now, how does that say much about Obama and his popularity/presidency? Likewise, if Democrats are able to split the races by winning in New Jersey or even pull off the upset in Virginia, does that mean Obama's presidency is on easy street? Absolutely not. In short, these races say much more about Deeds/McDonnell or Corzine/Christie than they do about Obama.

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http://feeds.mediamatters.org/~r/mediamatters/latest/~3/pOJH_3VqRWA/200911030050

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Going Rogue in Upstate New York

Sarah Palin has upended politics-as-usual again, this time electing a Democratic Congressman in an upstate New York district that has been Republican for over 100 years.

In drumming out of the party Dede Scozzafava, a member of the State Assembly with solid GOP credentials in favor of an inexperienced Conservative with a scared-rabbit persona, Palin has once again demonstrated that her gifts are better suited to show business than elective politics.

Even as voters show their unease in Virginia, New Jersey and even New York City, the Palin wing of the party, by pouring money and endorsements into New York's 23rd District, managed to translate their lust for ideological purity into an unexpected loss.

Scozzafava was so stunned by "the amount of hate and lies and the deceitfulness? aimed at her from all over the country that she bowed out and endorsed the Democrat.

?I don?t believe," she says, "that should be the characteristics that define the Republican Party. I think people should be allowed to have discussions and reasonable disagreements. But this was a full frontal assault on me personally and politically, for weeks.?

On an election night when serious Republicans could find shreds of hope for the future, the Palinistas have given them something to think about in the struggle for their party's soul in the future.



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http://ajliebling.blogspot.com/2009/11/going-rogue-in-upstate-new-york.html

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Bill Kristol Tries to Down Play Republican
Infighting

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From the great mind that brought us both Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle, Bill Kristol first does his best to build up what electoral successes in Virginia and New Jersey might mean for the Republicans in 2010, even though he claims that?s not what he?s doing. Republicans managing to pick up a Governor?s seat in Virginia or having an unpopular Governor in New Jersey who is a former Goldman Sachs CEO in the middle of this scandal with Wall Street managing to hold onto his seat or barely losing are not exactly bell-weather races for what might happen in 2010.

Kristol then tries to downplay the havoc that his girlfriend Sarah Palin is reaping upon the Republican Party with her endorsement of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 Congressional race.

Kristol: Tim Kaine has said, and this is the favorite mantra now of the Democrats and of the liberal media I would say as you quoted ?the divide between moderate Republicans and conservative Republicans? that?s kind of their hope. When was the last time that there was really a big divide between moderate and conservative Republicans? I would say in ?76 when Ronald Reagan ran a primary challenge to go then against an incumbent moderate Republican president Gerald Ford, barely lost, bitterness, divisiveness at the convention, he didn?t even really?give his full fledged, full support to Gerald Ford. In 1978 I remember a friend of mine, a young activist Jeff Bell challenged and beat the liberal incumbent Cliff Case, the Republican primary in Jersey, lost to Bill Bradley, in the general Al D?Amato challenged Jacob Javis in New York, actually won the general election. There was a huge amount of turmoil.

What came out of all of that?Reagan?s victory and a Republican takeover of the Senate in 1980. Turmoil in a party isn?t bad. Obviously it?s problematic. If you?re running a campaign you don?t, you know, it?s easier not to have a primary, it?s easier not to have people grumbling and complaining, but it?s?I think it?s a sign of health, it?s a sign of grass roots activity. It?s a sign of citizens getting involved. I don?t think people are going to go off the deep end. I think you?re going to have?the fact that there were challenges in the 23rd district of New York doesn?t mean that conservatives aren?t going to accept more moderate candidates which they will in Delaware where Mike Castle?s going to be the nominee, where Illinois where Mark Kirk?s going to be the Republican nominee.

The left keeps hoping that conservatives will be suicidal. They?re not going to be I think. But I think you do need the conservative populace?s energy and independence from Washington?and ideas. I think conservatives need that, that Republicans need that. You can?t just be top down, sort of rehashed ideas from inside the beltway, so I?m actually ah?Tim Kaine can console himself with tomorrow?s defeat?it?s going to be a pretty bad defeat and Republicans are going to win all the state wide races and I think pick up six to ten state legislative seats?Tim Kaine can console himself that hoping that the Republican Party will self destruct, but I don?t think it?s going to happen.

Bill, Hoffman wasn?t a primary challenge in case you didn?t notice. He?s a third party candidate propped up by a bunch of outsiders that are not from the state. And if you think this is going to stop with this NY-23 race and that ?people aren?t going to go off the deep end??you might want to go read this--Uncivil War: Conservatives to challenge a dozen GOP candidates.

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http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/bill-kristol-tries-down-play-republic
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BREAKING: McDonnell over Deeds in VA

MSNBC is calling the Virginia Governor’s race for the Republican, Bob McDonnell. This is not surprise.The polls are closing in NJ and ME at this hour. New Jersey Governor is reported “too close to call”–also not a surprise at this[...]

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http://firedoglake.com/2009/11/03/breaking-mcdonnell-over-deeds-in-va/

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NJ Polls Close -- Too Close to Call

Nets calling NJ-Gov as too close to call. This squares with what I've been hearing through the afternoon: exits polls saying dead even. Another round of exits likely to come in soon. More shortly. 8:05 PM: Hotline has NJ exits with Indies breaking[...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Talking-Points-Memo/~3/vVRRJ3RuRAA/nj_polls_close_
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Nets Call VA for McDonnell

There ya go. [...]

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Deeds v. Obama in Virginia

A comparison in seven counties where all votes have been counted.

County_______ Deeds Obama
King & Queen_ 41.0  51.8
Prince Edward 44.9  54.3
Westmoreland_ 41.4  54.6
Wythe________ 27.3  32.9
Lexington____ 60.5  62.2
Williamsburg_ 54.6  63.8
Winchester___ 39.2  52.0
AVERAGE______ 44.1  53.1

These counties are actually fairly representative -- Obama won 52.6 percent of the vote in Virginia overall -- so it looks like Deeds is going down to defeat on the order of 56-44. This is why some of the networks are starting to call the race.

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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/deeds-v-obama-in-virginia.html

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The Real Merakin's Burden

Darren Rovell
CNBC Sports Business Reporter

Dear Mr. Rovell,

Thanks for pointing out that the winner of the Men's NYC Marathon was only "technically American," but it should have been obvious to most CNBC and Fox viewers, anyway. Just look at his name, "Meb Keflezigi." Real Merakins have names like Patrick Buchanan, Vito Fosella, and Otto Reich. It's even more obvious when you see him. He ain't even caucasian. Everyone knows the back of a Real Merakin's neck turns red in the sun.

But pointing out that he's only "technically American" isn't a solution to the problem of Real Merakins consistently getting their asses whipped in the Men's NYC Marathon.

I'm not sure there's a fix for that actually. It just may be that it's impossible to produce endurance runners whose diets consist of pork rinds, Frito pie, and Pabst Blue Ribbon. Perhaps, we need to set a more achievable goal, or, better yet, create events a Real Merakin could win.

Here are a few ideas:

• The Pensacola Premature Ejaculation Sprint.
• The Colorado Springs Road Rage 500.
• The Brigham Young University Invitational Dry Hump.
• The West Texas Lone Gunman Random Person Shoot.
• The CNBC Wall Street Knee Drop.
• The Heartland Dipolypmics (already established--see enclosed video).

Well, that's enough ideas for now. Let's see what you can do with them.

Heterosexually yours,

Gen. JC Christian, patriot



video details and more



Fall Fundraiser: Please give if you can.
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http://patriotboy.blogspot.com/2009/11/real-merakins-burden.html

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