Lieberman Agreement

Last night The Hill reported a secret agreement to secure Lieberman's cloture vote on health care reform. Today TPM has Reid's office denying it: Reid spokesman Jim Manley told us: "There is no such understanding. We hope to have his vote in the end but[...]

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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/mydd/~3/TjNzQ4jkSek/265

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Election 2009: What Happened in Virginia

For those of you following the 2009 elections, I don?t have to tell you that Virginia–one year after voting Democratic for President for the first time since 1964–is about to sweep our most conservative Republican ticket in history to victory[...]

Read The Full Article:
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2009/11/03/what-happened-in-virginia/

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Is Rupert Murdoch Picking His Partner's Pockets
...

... or is NewsCorp just an Old Media Dinosaur that cannot keep up?

Burning the Midnight Oil for Breaking the Silicon Cage
In Orange 5pm Wednesday, EST

Breaking the Silicon Cage is for breaking down those barriers that prevent us from leveraging the full potential of the netroots for progressive populist action - whether that involves using the internet for collaboration on works to be delivered live on the street, or breaking down barriers between different social networks on the internet itself.

The latter is what we have here. The progressive blogosphere, if people are to believe our words (though not always our actions) is an enemy of Rupert Murdoch and his Iraq-Invasion-supporting, Conservative-Politician-electing multinational media empire. We in the US know him primarily for the Faux News Channel, but in the UK and Australia they know him for his grossly biased newspaper oligopolies.

If Progressives were indeed intent on taking power (something Cassiodorus questions), we would be eager to take any shots at Rupert Murdch's Media Empire that we could.

Now, I'm game, and a few others have expressed their interest, but for the most part the reaction of the blogosphere is a big, "why should I become outraged by that in particular". If the thousands of US service members and hundreds of thousands of lives disrupted - hundreds of thousands of Iraqis kills and millions of Iraqi lives disrupted - is too big a reason to grasp for being outraged at Rupert Murdoch and his media empire ... then be outraged for the mother (above right) of Cpl. Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, Bronze Star, Purple Heart, killed in action in a War of Choice that Rupert Murdoch loudly banged the drum in favor of choosing.
Because rather than being serious in our antagonism with Rupert Murdoch and NewsCorp, rather than owning our antagonism, rather than recognizing that sometimes, some people are just committed to opposing almost everything you are committed to supporting and so must be attacked whenever they present a target of opportunity...

... it may well be that many members of the "progressive blogosphere" are only comfortable in acting when they have been manipulated into outrage. If someone else can push our buttons, and tick us off, then we can join in expressing outrage. If, on the other hand, we have to pursue our revenge against Rupert Murdoch's media empire with cold calculation, that's not the same. And, no, its not the same - it would be an indication that we are serious about taking power.

Because this is an issue that on its own merits is not likely to be a big button pusher in the progressive blogosphere. The eternal online temptation to sneer is too strong, and the opportunity to land a punch on the enemy is lost in the joy of being smugly superior to the line of the attack.

The Line of Attack

Because the line of the attack is US translations of Japanese anime. US distribution of bootleg anime has long been on the bleeding edge of the New Media economy, with VHS tape bootlegs of fan-subtitled Japanese anime series circulating in the 80's, early adoption of computer digital video in the 90's, and early adoption and a strong presence in peer-to-peer networked file sharing.

This was a fringe of the anime audience that the industry ignored in the US growth period of the 90's and early part of this decade. However, an industry that had become increasingly reliant on US licensing fees, with US sales reaching a peak of around $500m earlier in this decade, has been hit hard in the second half of this decade. The distribution of bootlegs through free streaming sites has cut growing swathes of the fanbase out of the audience for licensed work, and US sales have slumped to a figure closer to $350m.

Particularly hard hit have been the higher end US distributors that dub Japanese anime with US voice actors - considered essential for packaging a series for US broadcast, but representing a substantial fixed cost for a US distributor to take on with no guarantee of recouping the cost from increased sales. In the past few years, one long time US distributor, Central Park Media, has gone bankrupt, and another, ADV, restructured as Section 23 Films and spun off its dubbing division into a separate company.

OK, so what does this have to do with Rupert Murdoch?

One of the ways that the anime industry has been trying to cope with the rapid distribution of bootleg fansubs on streaming sites has been to make legitimate licensed streams available to fans, in a mix of ad and subscriber supported business models. Examples include Joost, with over 30 anime series available, and Crunchyroll, with over 100.

But of course, legitimate sites can only stream what they can license, while the bootleg streamers can stream anything they can find available on a free video stream host site. For example, Hulu.com focuses entirely on North American rights, and has a running fight with services that allow overseas access via US-based Internet addresses, while Crunchyroll.com faces constant irritation from overseas members when a show they want to watch is not available for streaming to their country.

And the bootleg streamers can survive on the miniscule revenues of web ads and donations, because they contribute nothing back to the creative artists, contribute nothing back to the "fansub" groups that translate and subtitle works as a community activity, and indeed do not actually do the streaming of the material itself.

The flipside of that, however, is that the bootleg streamers can only exist due to the tolerance of their activity by the free video stream sites or due to the ineffectiveness of enforcement efforts.

Which is what raises the question in the title: is Rupert Murdoch's MySpace video streaming tolerating bootleg anime streams, in order to attract more users in their ongoing fight with FaceBook (note if you click through to Joost, you can sign in via Facebook) ... or is NewsCorp just an Old Media Dinosaur that is incapable of being fast enough on its feet to cope?

Because, as I began to document last week, and finished working out just this last weekend, Rupert Murdoch's MySpace servers, owned by 20th Century FOX, are the Pirate Support Base of preference of the particular bootleg streaming source that I have been datamining for stream host information.

In particular, looking at all series on the site that are available in a licensed free stream at either Hulu.com, Crunchyroll.com, or the AnimeNewsNetwork.com, the count of links as of 30-10-2009 by host server is:

• MySpaceCDN.com: 461, MySpace.com: 47, Total: 508
  
• imeem.com: 100
  
• google.com: 85
  
• megavideo.com: 81
  
• Source Hidden behind Local Link: 47
  
• LiveVideo.com: 39
  
• Veoh.com: 22
  
• YouTube.com: 18
  
• SevenLoad.com: 14
  
• TwitVid.com: 1
  
• Zoopy.com: 1
  

So in one part of his "trying to buy into the New Media Economy" strategy for his media empire, it turns out that Rupert Murdoch's MySpace is a major free streaming hosts for bootleg anime. Those in turn undermine the efforts of production houses and US distributors to provide US access to content shortly after Japanese airtime, while providing some income stream to keep the creative artists, producers, and translaters employed.

There is nothing that can be done to stop peer-to-peer file sharing, and so the market for DVD's is the market for people who want the DVD's. That genie is out of the bottle and cannot be put back in. But clearly, not everyone wants to or can work out where to download bootlegs, or how to get them playing on their system - that is why the bootleg streaming sites exist and attract an audience. There are those who prefers the simplicity of just browsing to a site and watching the show.

And that is the potential audience that Rupert Murdoch's MySpace is helping to divert away from the legitimate streaming sites.

The Pick-Pocket Thesis

One of Rupert's other ventures in trying to buy his way into the New Media Economy is Hulu.com, a free streaming joint venture between NewsCorp, NBC/Universal and Disney/ABC (there may be others - I'll be happy if you can add to that list of joint venture partners in the comments).

Which is where it gets weird, because when you look at the top four shows on Hulu.com by popularity, the list is topped by Naruto Shippuden - also available at Joost.com and Crunchyroll - with "Bleach" at number four. Hulu.com seems to be the sole source for legit streams of "Bleach".

Bleach is important for the bootleg streaming sites as well - in one it features as one of three series with direct links provided at the very top of every page.

And it is argued in some quarters that Hulu.com definitely needs more audience if it is going to be a successful venture. The Silicon Valley Insider at The Business Insider:

We have been skeptical that Hulu will receive enough of a revenue cut from its content and distribution partners to cover what we believe is a high cost structure.  After conducting more research, we remain skeptical.  It is not impossible that Hulu's model will work, but we continue to think it will be challenging for the company to turn a profit and build a sustainable business.

And there may be a fight over the business model brewing between NewsCorp on one side, and NBC/Universal and Disney/ABC on the other:

Here's the skinny: A story on B&C's Web site says Carey "hopes that it will move to a subscription model," While Entertainment Weekly said Carey firmly stated the site would start charging in 2010.  Whatever really happened, it was enough for a Hulu spokesperson to speak up - which hasn't happened in the past over this issue - pouring cold water on the paid idea, at least for now:

Hulu's mission has always been to help people find and enjoy the world's premium, professionally produced content. We continue to believe that the ad-supported free service is the one that resonates with the largest group of users and any possible new business models would serve to complement our existing offering. There are no details or timelines to share regarding our future product roadmap.

So, if Rupert Murdoch and NewsCorp are trying to push Hulu.com into some form of subscriber model, and at the same time they are faced with the power-law distribution of social networks in their fight for market share against Facebook, the "Pickpocket" thesis is:

• NewsCorp tolerates bootleg video except when required by law to act, because it serves their interests, even if it undermines the interest of Hulu.com under its current business model.

After all, the argument would go, they are not entirely troubled by the prospect of that market model failing if they expect it to fail anyway. Why devote effort to protecting the market audience of a lost cause?

The Dinosaur Thesis

Only considering a single hypothesis leaves a risk of looking for confirming evidence and overlooking contradictory evidence. And there is, after all, a second hypothesis that should be considered.

Suppose NewsCorp is simply an Old Media Dinosaur, is competing against itself through simple incompetence, which is just one more signal that it is doomed to fall as the oligopolistic market structures in both press and broadcast media that it was built upon are torn apart as we build the New Media Economy.

One of the tests of the "tolerance" scenario is whether any action is taken when information is passed on by someone other than the rights owner. The streaming host is legally required to act on a Cease and Desist order from the rights owner - but they are certainly permitted to investigate and take action no matter what their source of information is.

And so I have been passing my results on to the various streaming sites, to see what their reaction is. Many of the "minor sources" above react quite quickly. Indeed, if I had taken the count a week earlier, the count of Veoh.com clips would have been 50% higher, amd from my exploration yesterday and today, the count would be substantially lower again today.

Some sites show a splash screen that content was taken down due to copyright infringement. Others, such as Imeem.com, simply bring up the embedded video player with no content for it to stream.

The most interesting reaction is that of MegaVideo. Many of the MegaVideo videos have been replaced by a "copyright infringement" take-down notice. However, at least two bring up an entry portal into the iReel.com site - which appears to be a site for licensed streams of movies and shows, and which might indeed have a license to stream that particular show.

Exploration of the "Bleach" show, where Hulu.com has exclusive streaming rights, shows that some but not all of the MySpaceCDN streams have been taken down. In particular, those links referred to in an email to the site registration owner and administrator at the end of last week seemed to be in the process of being taken down - but while sites like Megavideo.com and Imeem.com have a reaction time of a day or two - the reaction time for MySpaceCDN.com seems to be more in the range of a week or two.

So, myself, I lean toward the "Dinosaur" thesis. Indeed, it would appear that few streaming hosts are as well placed to replace streams of bootleg anime with a pre-packaged stream that advertises the series availability on Hulu.com. At the very least, they can get rid of bootleg streams of episodes that they are hosting in competition against themselves in a timely manner. However, in practice, they are clearly slower in reacting than Veoh.com, Sevenload.com, Imeem.com and Megavideo.com - I had inadvertently omitted LiveVideo from the cc: list of the email I sent to NBC/Universal Disney/ABC, but I would not be surprised of LiveVideo.com is also quicker on their feet than NewsCorp.

They might defend themselves that I am using the wrong email addresses to contact them, but on the other hand I am just using publicly available registration, copyright violation, or Terms and Conditions violations contact addresses.

Still and all, they are, slowly, reacting. They just do not seem to have the ability to react as fast as the little mammals scurrying around their feet.

So, What Are We Supposed to Do About It

In the end, while anime fans might feel compelled to work out why NewsCorp is acting the way it does, the progressive blogosphere really does not. Whether they are one of the biggest Pirate Support Bases in the US streaming anime market because they are pursuing a dishonest game against their Hulu.com joint venture partners, or because they are simply not as competent at shutting down bootleg streams as their smaller, nimbler, New Media Economy rivals ...

... they still remain one of the biggest pirate support bases, which is a great big glaring contradiction with NewsCorp's aggressive and noisy public attacks on "copyright piracy". Indeed, Rupert Murdoch (note that the picture at the right is not from the event itself) has just recently lectured the Chinese on the subject:

"The embrace of the digital is as vital to China today as its decision 30 years ago to take its place in the global economy," he said. News Corp owns Dow Jones & Co., which publishes The Wall Street Journal. "Chinese media and entertainment companies have a remarkable opportunity to expand their international influence and revenues." But Mr Murdoch said "piracy will make it difficult for them to generate the profits at home that would fuel growth abroad."

... while he himself owns one of the biggest Pirate Support Bases for anime streaming in the Internet!

So the reason number one for the progressive blogosphere to make a big noise about it is simply that its a vulnerable point.

And if its publicized broadly enough, NewsCorp will have to take action to shut the Anime Pirate Support Base. If it is pushed hard enough to be picked up by any of the mess media, NewsCorp will have to come out denying that it is intentional, and declaring that they will take steps to shut down what they had no idea was happening.

After all, whether they are doing it because they are a Pickpocket or because they are an Old Media Dinosaur, they have to pretend to be a New Media Not-Pickpocket once the question is asked publicly enough.

But then there is the question - do they just shut down the streaming they are doing in competition with themselves? If they decisively defend their own streams, but do not take the same decisive action to stop infringing on the rights of Crunchyroll.com, Joost.com, or the AnimeNewsNetwork, then we have them on the hook for another kick of the story.

And then if we force them to take decisive action to shut down the Anime Pirate Support Base for all legitimate streaming anime - well, then we win. If the solution requires ongoing organized action by anime fans in defense of the modest income streams available from free streaming, as I suggested in The Teaspoon Model - that's for the mature segment of the anime fanbase to take on. The progressive blogosphere would declare victory and move on.

OK, now suppose that we raise a ruckus but not enough to make the Dinosaur move its feet. We still will have been on the right side of trying to defend the livelihoods of the creators, against the Digital Millenium Copyright Act which is of course biased toward the big media middlemen. And, indeed, whether we force Murdoch to act or not, any ammunition we can give to any of his enemies is a good thing. After all, much of the evil that Murdoch does is in the realm of propaganda, and if he does not change MySpace's status as a primary Anime Pirate Support Base, that is something to snipe at him with every time he sounds off on the issue of copyright.

And win or lose, working in coalition in support of the growth of a New Media Economy is a useful networking exercise. After all, these are people with skills that the blogosphere needs very badly when we hit the campaign trail. We have got an ocean of words, but to get through to more than 30% of the electorate, we need effective moving images with sound. And the fans of the section of the New Media Industry we would be coming to the aid of here - include numbers of people with effective image creation and video production skills.

Well, at least, if progressives are serious about pursuing power. If being "progressive" is about sitting on the sideline and complaining, not so much.

If you are interested in joining the fight, keep a watch out for the "PirateCorp" tag, do what you can to publicize the direct actions in the fight, and to push the story into the media.

And if you can come up with additional / better direct actions than the Friday download-a-thon, be sure to pipe up.

The rich get richer, the poor get the picture
The bombs never hit you when you're down so low
Some got pollution, some revolution
There must be some solution but I just don't know
The bosses want decisions, the workers need ambitions
There won't be no collisions when they move so slow
Nothing ever happens, nothing really matters
No one ever tells me so what am I to know

You wouldn't read about it, read about it
Just another incredible scene, there's no doubt about it

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DLCC: Worried About Low Turnout Today

In the second of my two interviews with top staffers from each party's state legislative campaign committee, below is the transcript of my conversation Monday with Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee executive director Michael Sargeant. Prior to his elevation to executive director, Sargeant served as the political director and then national political director of the DLCC. Before joining the DLCC, he was the Tennessee House caucus director.


538: Can you give our readers a sense of how much the DLCC has invested in the state legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia for the election tomorrow?

Michael Sargeant: The reports haven?t all come out yet, but we?ve been a major donor to the effort in Virginia this year, just as we were two years ago.


538: And in New Jersey?

Sargeant: We?ve been a major donor in Virginia but not in New Jersey because we believe we?re going to hold the majority in the [New Jersey] assembly.


538: Are you tinkering with any new technological tools or tactics in the field campaign and for voter contacting generally, and if so what?

Sargeant: It?s an interesting question. We?ve all been taking a look from the last election on at a variety of things regarding microtargeting, and making sure we?re also doing more polling and just being more aggressive as well at the doors doing GOTV.

One of the things we?re very proud of is our DLCCweb program, which we?re making available on our website for legislative candidates around the country using this. We have around 350 to 400 candidates around the country using this and they were in full force last election cycle in 2008.


538: So you are using it beyond these races in 2010 and beyond?

Sargeant: We first used it in the ?08 races, again this year, and the program is just growing by leaps and bounds.


538: The conventional wisdom is that there is not going to be the ?Obama surge? voters turnout in either state tomrrow, and you?ll have an older, whiter cohort turn out. Are you worried about that?

Sargeant: Yes. Look, I think it?s only natural that the electorate is going to be different in an off-year after a presidential election. I can?t speak enough that the strength of the campaign [VA House minority leader] Ward Armstong has organized. But it?s only natural that the turnout model is going to be different in 2009 than it was in 2008.


538: Do you think candidates Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine have any coattails?or alternatively that Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie will coattails or downballot effects?on the state legislative races, or statewide will it be a series of localized contests?

Sargeant: That?s a great question. I will say this. Our program has been to make an emphasis to make sure our candidates run localized, personalized campaigns that fit their districts?that they?re talking about that matter to their district, not necessarily a national message or a statewide message. That?s the strategy we?ve been working with our candidates since 2004, 2006, 2006, and the off-years since I?ve been here at the DLCC. So that?s been our strategy.

As for statewide campaigns, I think there will be places in the state where those campaigns help us and places where they will hurt.


538: You?re talking about Virginia? And which places will it hurt? The conventional wisdom is that Democrats do well in the NoVa counties near DC, but McDonnell is touting his strength there.

Sargeant: I think Bob McDonnell so far has run a strong campaign. I think our candidates have done a good job in Northern Virginia and have done a good job in the rest of the state. But McDonnell has run a strong campaign.


538: Shifting away from New Jersey and Virginia for a moment, can you comment on the situation in the New York State Senate?

Sargeant: Our main objective is working with Democratic leaders to put together the best campaign operation possible to win majorities. We did work with the New York Senate last cycle to help them gain the majority for the first time in many, many years. What?s happening now in New York, let?s just say it?s interesting.


538: Do you think that significant gains the Democrats have made in state legislatures the past three cycles?2004, 2006 and 2008?that these gains, in terms of total legislatures or chambers controlled, has reached a limit? Have you guys capped out?

Sargeant: I think the map is interesting and it looks different state to state. We?ve moved from 41 Democratic majorities to 60 since the 2002 election. That?s a seachange at our level of campaigns and politics. And there are still some places where Democrats can make serious gains, such as the Texas house and senate, and the Tennessee house. Those are places where we feel Democrats can make serious gains.

I think in large part, instead of it being a national issue, these campaigns are run locally and the dynamics, district to district, are going to be different, as well as what happens in each of the states. It?s not so much that Democrats have capped as much as what?s going to be the strength of the campaigns on the ground and what are going to be the issues that matter most to the voters who are there.

Democrats, you know, we moved 10 chambers toward Democratic control in 2004. And most people would say that was not a very strong year for the entire Democratic ticket. Democrats running for state legislature were running in a lot of strong campaign programs and by personalizing these campaigns.


538: Going back to New Jersey and Virginia, can you identify a rising legislative star or legislative candidate this cycle who is a rising star in that state?

Sargeant: I think Dave Englin in Virginia is very smart and works hard for his issues. He?s a real rising star. He?s a sitting house member from Northern Virginia and a very strong candidate.


538: What will be the headlines out of Richmond and Trenton on Wednesday morning as far as overall gains or losses for Democrats in those two state legislatures?

Sargeant: I think Democrats hold our majority in New Jersey Assembly. And in Virginia, they?ve gained 11 seats over the last two house election cycles in the Virginia House. So that?s been very tough math they?re battling in Virginia.

I think we?re in a position where there may be some losses but there just as easily may be some gains. There are some tossups that could go either way. I wouldn?t be surprised if we had a net gain in Virginia.


538: So do you think, in terms of the overall storyline nationally, if the governors races split, do you think Republicans will claim a victory if they do better in the state legislative races and statewide races? Is it a foreshadowing of a correction, or a pushback or Republican surge?what?s the bigger takeaway?

Sargeant: I think the bigger takeaway is that the Virginia house Dems have put themselves in the position to get close to a majority. And they have a very difficult map that they?re toiling under. With the turnout projections we?re looking at, it?s going to be difficult to win those last couple of seats to win that majority.

I guess the larger point I?m trying to make in Virginia is that it?s a very tough map and that redistricting matters.

Read The Full Article:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/dlcc-worried-about-low-turnout-today.html

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S.C. Gubernatorial Debate tonight at 8:00 p.m.

I?m excited about this evening's gubernatorial debate, hosted by the South Carolina Natural Resources Society. This is the first opportunity for each gubernatorial candidate to discuss natural resources, conservation, and economic development in South Carolina.

Last year, I was proud to be recognized as a ?Senate Champion? by the Conservation Voters of South Carolina for my leadership on conservation issues such as environmental permitting and the protection of our state?s waterways.

As Chair of the Sportsman?s Caucus and a floor leader in the effort to create the South Carolina Conservation Bank, I recognize the importance of our state?s natural resources as a driver for our recreation and tourism economies.

And as your governor, I will ensure economic growth and sustainable use of our natural resources go hand in hand so that our precious natural resources are available for future generations of South Carolinians.

Please tune in to ETV tonight at 8:00 PM to watch this important debate.

Yours,

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Tighten Your Seatbelts

For the last few days, Republicans and their media enablers have been laying the groundwork to declare any close races today as stolen by Democratic election fraud. [...]

Read The Full Article:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Talking-Points-Memo/~3/Co8wsolOhNs/tighten_your_se
atbelts.php

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A Preferred Share Primer

When I talk about dividend stocks here at Money and Markets, I almost always mean common shares of a company. But today I want to…

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Tonights Election Coverage - A Tale Told By An
Idiot.

So it is election day again. These off year elections always get up the Dog?s nose. They are the weak tealeaves, which the blogosphere and the TV pundits use to try to have something of merit to say about the state of play of politics. The reality is they in and of themselves, they don?t mean much.

"Originally posted at Squarestate.net"

Today we will hear, obsessively on MSNBC and Fox, about three elections and one or two ballot measures. The elections are the Governors races in New Jersey and Virginia and the wild and wacky race in the NY 23rd. The ballot initiatives are 1 in Maine and 71 in Washington State both of which deal with removing rights granted by the legislature to gay citizens. In Maine it is full marriage rights, in Washington it is civil union which would have full marriage rights in all but name.

One thing, which almost none of the coverage is going to tell you, is how incredibly low the turn out for elections in off year cycles are. In off year elections, depending on the State turn out can run between 35% and 50% of the registered voters. Which means it is a the hardest of hard core on both sides and those folks like the Dog and his family who take this voting thing as a minimum requirement for calling yourself a citizen.

Tonight there will be lots of prognostication about the meaning of the election in New Jersey, but this big State governors race might be determined by as little as 33% of the registered voters, which the percent that voted in 2007 the last off year election. This is the problem with trying to read anything into these elections. First off there are not enough of them to give you a real sample size and second they are not like elections held on Congressional or Presidential cycle years.

This will not prevent everyone and their cousin from trying. After all the cable networks have time slots to fill. Add to it the fact that Fox and MSNBC made record profits from the presidential election last year, there is no chance they will not be pounding this like a drum. But to quote the Bard ?It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing?.

What will we actually learn from the vote totals tonight? We will find out if the forces of intolerance were able to railroad the people of Maine into institutionalizing bigotry. If the money and the campaign, which were successful in California, are able to replicate their nefarious work, we will know we cannot fight these issues in off years. It will be a set back for the gay citizens of Maine, but it will not be a death knell for full rights. It will just make it clear the Supreme Court is the place where we must fight and win against the same kind of bigotry, which prevented interracial couples from marrying prior to the Loving decision.

If, as it seems likely, the Republicans take the Governorship in Virginia, we will have re-learned the lesson that a crappy campaign looses. It will have nothing to say about the mode of the nation in regards to the President or the Democrats. Be sure to point this out at length to anyone who says differently. It will also show that in order to win, a Republican needed to stay away from the Culture War rhetoric, which their base is forcing to supremacy. If the Right wants to have Virginia be a template for the 2010 election that is fine with the Dog, it requires a crappy Democratic campaign and a betrayal of their base to win.

In the Garden State no matter who wins what we will learn is that a third party candidate is always a spoiler for someone. The Dog is moderately confident is predicting the incumbent Governor Jon Corzine will squeak this one out. Democrats in New Jersey often flirt with the Republicans but almost always come home to the party at the polls.

Even if the rotund Chris Chirstie does manage to take the Governorship, it will not be from being a Hard Right ideologue. He has turned down chances for the unemployed blogger Mrs. Palin to come and whip up the base for him. Why did he do this? Because even a former Bush Administration official knows, the crazy base of his party will alienate the Independent voters he has to have to win this race.

What will we learn in the 23rd District of New York? We will lean the levels to which the reminder of the non-insane part of the Republican Party in that district is willing to ride the corpse of a dead elephant in the name of loyalty. The Far Out Right (as Chris Kofinis calls them) have decided they will try to enforce purity to the level of turning a Republican candidate who could easily win the district to a Democrat. This is perhaps the only election today that might tell us something about the 2010 election. It is not that it will tell us anything about outcome, with the strange three way dynamics becoming a two way race with a Republican endorsing a Democrat this is so far to the right side of the distribution curve as to be unique. No, it will tell us something about what the Republican Party will do in terms of nomination or even fracturing during the next election cycle.

If Doug Hoffman wins the Far Right wing of the Republicans Party will put the Stalinist purge machine into overdrive. There will be no support for those who do not toe the line on all of their discredited and unpopular ideas anywhere in the nation. The extinction of the Republican moderate will be completed in the next cycle and the fate of the GOP as a regional Party, which cannot affect national trends, will be sealed. As a life-long Democrat and a partisan, the Dog could not be happier about this. As a citizen who believes we need loyal opposition to make our system of checks and balances work, this is would be worrying, but since the Republicans are doing it to themselves, it is not for the Dog to interfere.

Overall, tonight we will learn who is elected, who was successful in their campaigns and who failed. What will we not learn is anything about the President being in good or bad shape. These will be data points that may or may not turn into trends, but to read any kind of massive or even slight shift into these small and varied races is to overreach to the extent that only American political reporting can do.

Keep your heads no matter what happens tonight folks. The fight has not ended, we have not completely won nor completely lost and the issues of 2010 will be fought in 2010 not an off year, low turn out election cycle.

The floor is yours.

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Justice

It's been about ten weeks since I fell and broke both wrists on August 18th. I am just now finally almost back to normal functioning. Whatever that means. While there has not been a whole lot going on in my visible outer world, there's a lot going on in[...]

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What's New Lacking Evidence, Conservatives Again
Stoke Voter Fraud Fears

Another election, another boatload of evidence-free Republican claims of voter fraud...

In part because it's the closest of the major races, the New Jersey governor's race has been the focus of the GOP's dire warnings. Here's how the campaign to stoke fears over voter fraud in the Garden State has ramped up in recent days:

? First, Jim Geraghty of National Review sounded the alarm last Thursday: State Democrats, he fretted, had asked that absentee voters whose signatures on their ballot request form didn't match that on their registration form -- 2300 people in all -- be given provisional ballots, rather than have their votes thrown out if they couldn't be contacted by local election officials. Geraghty warned: "Suspicious minds see the [Democrats' request] as an attempt to create a pool of emergency votes to be used if Christie holds a small lead on Election Night."

? Geraghty followed that up with a post a few hours later, noting that "just about everybody shows a close race, and concerns about voter fraud make Republicans unable to feel optimistic about a close race. Norm Coleman can explain how winning a race on election night doesn't always mean you get to take the oath of office." One of the most rigorous vote counting processes in recent history found no credible evidence of voter fraud in Coleman's Senate loss to Al Franken.

? Then yesterday, Fox picked up the torch, with a lengthy segment on the threat of voter fraud not just in New Jersey but around the country, entitled: "How easy is it to steal an election with absentee ballots?" The only tangible new piece of evidence that Fox came up with was this: a former Denver Elections Commissioner, who now runs a website devoted to stoking fears about corrupt elections, told viewers that some people shoveling her driveway said they'd heard that "six or seven absentee ballots were sent to dead people."

? Then, the centerpiece: A Wall Street Journal column by John Fund, the GOP's perennial voter fraud Cassandra, asserting that "plenty of reasons exist for suspecting absentee fraud may play a significant role in tomorrow's Garden State contests." For instance? "Groups associated with Acorn in neighboring Pennsylvania and New York appear to have moved into the state." It goes on in that vein, with Fund echoing Geraghty in latching onto the Democrats' provisional ballot request as potential evidence of rampant fraud.

? Fund followed that up with an appearance on Glenn Beck, where, among other things, he laid out one specific voter fraud strategy:

People are going door to door in parts of Camden [New Jersey] with Hispanics that don't have very much knowledge of English, and they're saying, "We have a new way for you to vote, la nueva forma de votar; just fill out these papers.

But as Media Matters notes, Fund's Wall Street Journal column, published just a few hours earlier, conceded that this scheme actually occurred in Philadelphia, not New Jersey ... in 1993.

? No matter. This morning, Fund was back on Fox, which during his appearance ran a chyron that read: "Surge In Absentee Ballots Raises Fears Of Voter Fraud."

? Meanwhile, out in the field, a website named Election Journal -- the "online community dedicated to raising public awareness of vote fraud" that shot that video of the New Black Panthers last fall -- posted this shocking video: A New Jersey woman tells how convicted criminals were going door-to-door in her neighborhood for the Democrats' get-out-the-vote operation.

So there you have it, folks ... As usual, a lot of huffing and puffing, but precious little evidence of any actual vote fraud.

We'll have more on this later today...

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