Election Prediction Thread

post from MyDD on 03 November 2008 06:01:19 PM. © MyDD

It's that time. What do you think is going to happen tomorrow? Give us your best guess for the Electoral College, popular vote % and the number of Senate and House seats Democrats will pick up (if you think Martin will win in a December run-off, don't[...]

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Election Eve: The 2008 Senate races

post from MyDD on 03 November 2008 06:01:02 PM. © MyDD

Bumped - ToddThis is it. It's time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the[...]

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Ignoring McCain's immigration reversal, NBC's
Mitchell said "dramatic shift in the Hispanic vote" toward Obama is a "sad irony for John McCain"

post from Media Matters for America on 03 November 2008 05:58:39 PM. © Media Matters for America

During the November 3 edition ofMSNBC's Morning Joe, NBCchief foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell said that among the"underreported things we've been talking among ourselves about thatwe have not paid enough attention to is this dramatic shift in the Hispanicvote." She went on to assert that "it is really a great irony, asad irony, for [Sen.] John McCain if it turns out this way because he was suchan early supporter. He lost his Republican base ... partly on supportingimmigration[...]

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FOX Still Pushing McCain's Fraudulent Coal Attack

post from Daily Kos on 03 November 2008 05:55:04 PM. © Daily Kos

The number of mentions of McCain's fraudulent coal attack ("coal" and "bankrupt") by network, since Sunday morning:

FOX: 122
CNN: 18
MSNBC: 8

The only word for this is propaganda. They purport, you decide.

^{(These numbers come from a Snapstream Enterprise DVR Server.)}

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McCain Camp Sues Virginia Over Military Ballots

post from TPMMuckraker on 03 November 2008 05:55:00 PM. © TPMMuckraker

Here's a possible last-minute effort by the McCain camp to throw a wrench into the vote counting in a key swing state.

The Associated Press reports:

John McCain's campaign sued Virginia's electoral board today, hours before the election, seeking to force the state to count late-arriving overseas military ballots.
The lawsuit asks a federal judge to order the State Board of Elections to count any overseas absentee ballots sent by November 4 and received by local election officials as late as November 14.
McCain claims the rights of military voters are protected by the federal Uniform and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Rights Act of 1986.
The campaign's complaint says that Virginia military voters posted overseas who support the Republican nominee will be denied their right to vote unless the court grants the order.

The report adds that no hearing was scheduled by this afternoon.

Under normal procedures, military ballots would likely only be counted if their number exceeded the total margin of victory of one candidate, meaing they could affect the result. So the suit may be designed to ensure that Virginia can't be officially called for Obama early in the evening, which could depress Republican turnout in other parts of the country.

Late Update: Rick Hasen, an election law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, tells TPMmuckraker that the suit is likely an effort to ensure that military ballots that arrived after election day -- which will likely favor McCain -- will be counted. That was an issue during the Florida recount of 2000, in which the courts ultimately ruled that such ballots could be counted. (Hasen cautioned that he hadn't yet had a chance to look closely at the suit.)

And on his blog, he asks a good question: "Why did this suit have to wait until the eve of the election?"

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McCain's Real America: Having Fun Over Obama's
Grandmother's Death

post from TPMCafe on 03 November 2008 05:49:00 PM. © TPMCafe

Can you imagine this on our side: enjoying the death of say McCain's mother or Palin's grandmother and speculating that it was timed for election eve?

Inconceivable. That is because liberals just don't think that way. And a few of these rightwingers don't either. But the majority clearly does.

Lucianne Goldberg, who owns this website, once told my son she would have to shut down the site if Hillary or Ted Kennedy died because the amount of celebrating would embarrass her.

I guess she didn't expect that the death of an old lady, who happens to be Obama's grandmother, would also set off that reaction. (Actually, these folks loved the death of JFK,Jr. too. I remember that). Also, see Fox news comments.

These are the people we are up against, folks. And tomorrow we will beat them, maybe once and for all. Why do I say "once and for all." Because mainstream Republicans are sick of these people and might fight to take their party back. We have only two parties, after all; we can't afford a Republican party that exists only to hate, to distribute wealth upward, and to fight neocon wars.

POSTSCRIPT: Lucianne Goldberg shut down the thread: "Reply 35 - Posted by: LComStaff, 11/3/2008 5:47:22 PM
We are going to close this post. It is bringing out the worst in some of us."

The sad thing, of course, is that Goldberg had to close the thread down to to stop the viciousness. But I give her credit, all the same. She did exactly what she said she'd have to do if one of our liberal icons died and her people celebrated.

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Why you need to vote & not pin your hopes on
leaving the country

post from Across the Pond: A Feminist Blog on 03 November 2008 05:46:43 PM. © Across the Pond: A Feminist Blog

As someone who bailed on the USA two years into the President Select’s disastrous administration, trust me, I know that of which I speak: if you’re even contemplating chucking it in and just moving abroad* consider the following:National Health Care can bite me…and then make me wait years for treatment for the wound. Michael Moore [...]

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How good are polls, anyway

post from Open Left - Front Page on 03 November 2008 05:41:57 PM. © Open Left - Front Page

With everyone obsessing about polling, now would be a good time to take a look at their track[...]

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Afternoon Polling Update

Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.

Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV Today Research 2000: 51 (51) 45 (44) 3 LV Final tomorrow Reuters/Zogby: 51 (50) 44 (44) 2.9 LV Final tomorrow USAToday/Gallup: 53 (52) 42 (45) 2 LV Final Gallup: 53 (52) 42 (43) 2 LV Final all variations NBC/WSJ: 51 (52) 43 (42) 3.1 LV Final Rasmussen: 52 (51) 46 (46) 2 LV Final tomorrow Diageo/Hotline: 50 (50) 45 (45) 3.4 LV Final DCorps(D): 51 (52) 44 (43) 3 LV Final Battleground: 50 (49) 44 (45) 3.1 LV Final tomorrow Marist: 53 (50) 44 (43) 3.5 LV Final IBD/TIPP: 48 (47) 43 (45) 3.3 LV alternate link CBS: 51 (54) 42 (41) 3 LV Final? Fox: 50 (47) 43 (44) 3 LV Final ABC/WaPo: 53 (54) 44 (43) 3 LV Final?

With so many new polls out today, many of them final, I thought it a good time for an update.

Here is the pollster.com high sensitivity graph of all the polls as of this afternoon, from 9/15 to now.

What you can see is the importance of the Wall Street meltdown (and how the candidates handled things) which led to Obama's lead, one he has held on to through the election.

From CBS, my bolded:

There is evidence that Palin’s presence on the Republican ticket has hurt McCain with some voters. Fourteen percent of Obama's supporters say they once supported McCain, and the top reason given for their switch was McCain's selection of Palin as his running mate.

While views of Palin have improved somewhat since last week, she continues fare worse than Biden when it comes to favorability. Today, 37 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of the Alaska governor, while the same percentage have an unfavorable view. Biden is viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 21 percent.

McCain has not been helped by his association with President Bush, the poll suggests. Fifty-four percent of voters think McCain would continue Mr. Bush's policies, and the president is extremely unpopular: his approval rating now stands at 20 percent, the lowest ever recorded for a president. His disapproval rating of 72 percent matches his all-time high, first reached last month.

Let me repeat that: Bush is now at 20% in the CBS poll, lowest ever (yes, that's ever) for a President. Lower than Truman. Lower than Nixon. Lower than Attila the Hun (ok, Attila used a lousy tracking poll... it definitely under-sampled Venetians.)

Apparently, the entire country is suffering Bush Derangement Syndrome, a term coined by WaPo columnist Charles Krauthammer, himself certifiably deranged for some time now. However, a previous NBC/WSJ poll suggested Palin was a bigger drag than Bush.

From the new ABC/WaPo poll:

Obama continues to hold advantages on handling the economy (54 percent to 40 percent) and taxes (52 percent to 43 percent), but the two rivals are closer on handling an unexpected major crisis (49 percent to 46 percent).

The polls have early voting numbers all over the map. The links are above in the table.

Fox:

Obama's lead among those who say they have already voted has almost disappeared. He has a 1-point edge -- just 48-47 percent -- in this latest poll, down from a 52-43 percent lead previously (Oct 28-29).

WaPo:

Those early voters remain an Obama-leaning group, 58 percent said they voted for the Illinois Democrat, 40 percent for McCain. That's a flip from 2000 and 2004, when George W. Bush scored around 60 percent among early voters.

One more day. Time for post-mortems tomorrow. In the meantime, this is a solid Obama lead in the polls.

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Dick Cheney's Home Town Paper Latest To Switch
From Bush To Obama

Editor & Publisher has an updated list of endorsements of daily newspapers around the country and it's an absolute landslide for Obama/Biden. We're into election eve! And the Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily[...]

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