As I suspect will be the case from now until November, the Wrap is positively bursting at the seams with numbers a-plenty to kick off the week. And the data runs the gamut, from polls that will make Democrats smile to polls that will make Democrats weep.
Also, we have...in 2010...an advocate of Eugenics running for Congress on the Republican ticket. I shit you not.
All that (and more!) in the Monday edition of the Wrap...
AR-Sen: Lincoln trails two-to-one in new Talk Business poll
Local media outfit Talk Business (using numbers thrown together by Hendrix College) are out with their latest poll in Arkansas. If Lincoln's 17 point deficit last week in the Mason Dixon poll was "good news", this poll is considerably worse. In the TB poll, Republican John Boozman leads with 56% of the vote. Lincoln is a distant second at 29% of the vote, while Indie candidates divvy up another 7% of the vote.
CA-Sen: PPP poll puts Boxer in drivers seat for fourth term
One vulnerable Senate seat that seems to be slipping away from the GOP is the one in the Golden State, where PPP is out with a new poll showing incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer with a decent lead over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer leads by eight points (50-42), in one of the few states in the Union with little apparent enthusiasm gap. Also aiding Boxer in her re-election bid: Fiorina is far from beloved, with negative net favorability (34/42).
GA-Sen: M-D poll gives Isakson solid shot at re-election
While Mason-Dixon joins other pollsters in showing growing competitiveness in Georgia's gubernatorial race (more on this later), those close margins do not translate to the Peach State's Senate campaign. The new M-D poll shows incumbent Republican Johnny Isakson well out in front of the Democratic nominee, state labor commissioner Michael Thurmond. The current margin sits at nineteen points (51-32). The race had threatened to creep into single digits just after the July primaries here, but Isakson has eased back into a substantial lead as of late.
LA-Sen: Partisan polls paint widely disparate picture of race
Democrat Charlie Melancon is either within single digits of incumbent Republican David Vitter, or he is getting wiped out by eighteen points. At least, that is the contradictory verdict of new partisan surveys conducted in the Pelican State. A new DSCC poll (from Bennett, Pitts, Northington) shows Vitter at 44%, Melancon at 35%, and Indie contenders pulling down a total of 6% of the vote. Meanwhile, right-wing pollsters Magellan Research (PDF file) see a very different race: Vitter 52%, Melancon 34%.
MO-Sen: Missouri Dem poll puts Carnahan in striking distance
A new poll conducted by Global Strategy Group for the Mizzou Democratic Party puts Democrat Robin Carnahan well within range of Republican Roy Blunt. Without leaners, the race is tied at 37%. With leaners, Blunt moves into a narrow lead (43-39). Independent candidates grab another 6%, meaning about one-in-eight voters are still up for grabs.
PA-Sen: Dueling public polls both show Toomey up single digits
Interesting data out of the Keystone State, where Democrat Joe Sestak may well be showing some signs of life in his open seat battle against Republican Patrick Toomey. A pair of polls put Sestak within single digits of Toomey, and one poll shows a race that is actually quite close. A new poll from Municipoll on behalf of local website PoliticsPA shows Toomey leading Sestak by nine points (45-36), while a new poll from Critical Insights for the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader shows an even closer contest, with Toomey up just four points on Sestak (40-36).
UT-Sen: GOP candidate has two-to-one lead in deep-red Utah
The new Dan Jones poll in Utah, taken for KSL-TV and Deseret News, shows a considerable advantage for Republican Mike Lee over Democrat Sam Granato in the battle to replace ousted GOP Sen. Bob Bennett. Lee holds a 52-25 lead over Granato. Perhaps most surprising: Lee even leads the Democrat in Salt Lake County, one of the few places in uber-conservative Utah that is willing to vote for Democratic candidates.
ME-01/ME-02: New public poll shows Dem incumbents well ahead
The newest numbers out from local pollsters Critical Insight might allow Democrats worried about the recent PPP polls in the state to exhale a little bit. The polls in both districts show Democratic incumbents Chellie Pingree and Michael Michaud staked to double digit leads over their GOP challengers. In the First District, Pingree holds a 53-29 lead over Republican challenger Dean Scontras. Meanwhile, in the neighboring Second District, the pollster sees a slightly narrower lead (48-28) for Michaud over Republican Jason Levesque.
MI-15: Dean of the House has double-digit lead
I have been following polls for well over a decade, and I can say with virtual certainty that I have never seen the district of longtime Democratic veteran (if 54 years of service could be defined as "longtime") John Dingell polled. A sign of the times, perhaps. If there is any comfort, it is in the fact that the poll (from the GOP-friendly Glengariff Group on behalf of the Detroit News) gives Dingell a solid lead of nineteen points (49-30) over Republican challenger Rob Steele.
MS-01: Nunnelee produces his own internal polls, showing him ahead
Perhaps in response to the recent release of a Democratic internal poll showing him trailing incumbent Democrat Travis Childers, the campaign of Republican challenger Alan Nunnelee produced their own internal polling, from the Tarrance Group. Their poll gives Nunnelee a lead in the mid-single digits (48-41) over the Democratic incumbent, only slightly different than a late Spring poll showing him up five on Childers.
ND-AL: Pomeroy campaign releases internal poll with two point edge
Perhaps in a sign that they have grown tired of the incessant Rasmussen polls showing him well behind Republican challenger Rick Berg, the campaign of Democrat Earl Pomeroy released an internal poll from Garin-Hart-Yang showing the incumbent with a slight edge over Republican Rick Berg. The poll gives Pomeroy a two-point lead (46-44) over Berg, and is part of a mini-wave of better-than-expected Democratic data to open up the week (more examples to follow!).
NY-18: Eugenics...it's not just for the 1910s, anymore!
This story is worthy of a "wow": Republican Congressional candidate Jim Russell's 2001-2002 diatribes against Jews and interracial marriage are now getting a full airing, courtesy of Politico's Maggie Haberman. In an effort he wrote called "The Western Contribution to World History", Russell also praises Eugenics, and shows his considerable frustration with films that displayed interracial romances (because they were corrupting young white girls...no, really!).
NY-24: Arcuri holds respectable lead in re-election bid
It's not double digits, but a new public poll out from Siena shows that incumbent Democrat Michael Arcuri has a modest edge (PDF file) over Republican challenger Richard Hanna. According to the poll, Arcuri holds a 48-40 lead over Hanna. In 2008, this was a race that proved much closer than forecast, with Hanna coming within just a few percent of the Democratic incumbent. Hanna is back for a rematch, in what is widely predicted to be the best climate for Republicans since forever, but Arcuri seems to be in marginally better position.
PA-15: Dent has a lead, but Callahan looming, in new public poll
If you are a fan of Republicans (y'know...both of you), you'd argue that the latest Morning Call poll in eastern Pennsylvania has Republican incumbent Charlie Dent leading by double digits. If you are a fan of Democrats, you argue that the challenger already is holding the incumbent under 50%, and is making up ground. Either way, the new Morning Call poll shows that Dent has a respectable advantage (49-38), but not enough of an edge to call the race safe for the incumbent. Callahan has been one of the better challenging candidates for the Democrats this cycle, and is well stocked to take this race into November.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: DCCC releases four (very good) polls
The recent trend of Democratic polling releases lives on, and it is a pretty nice way to kick off the week. The DCCC utilized three pollsters (Grove Insight, Anzalone Liszt, and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) to look at four districts. Democrats lead in all four. The data:
AR-01: Chad Causey (D) 46%, Rick Crawford (R) 44%
DE-AL: John Carney (D) 50%, Glen Urquhart (R) 32%
FL-25: Joe Garcia (D) 40%, David Rivera (R) 33%, Others 4%
GA-08: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) 48%, Austin Scott (R) 36%
AK-Gov: Lisa Murkowski--Trend Setter?
This could be very, very good news for Alaska Democrats. Bill Walker, who ran a close second to incumbent Republican Governor Sean Parnell in August's primaries, is now contemplating a write-in candidacy for the office. Walker is inspired, perhaps, by the decision of Senator Lisa Murkowski to pursue a write-in bid to save her seat. The dynamics in this race, however, makes a write-in bid much more favorable for the Democrats. Walker would likely run to Parnell's right, giving an option to teabaggers who will already be turning out for Senate nominee Joe Miller. The Democrat, Ethan Berkowitz, has been trailing Parnell by 10-15 percent in most surveys.
GA-Gov: Another poll confirms tightening gubernatorial race
Confirming Republican Nathan Deal's notable slide from frontrunner status, a poll out today from Mason Dixon puts Deal up by just four points over Democratic nominee Roy Barnes (45-41). Deal has been dealing with an avalanche of bad revelations about his personal finances, and the stories have clearly taken their toll on Deal's poll numbers, as a high-single digit lead has eroded markedly.
HI-Gov: Final primary is over--Abercrombie wins in a walk
The final primary of 2010 (save for a runoff in Louisiana's 3rd district) came and went over the weekend, and the much anticipated showdown between former Congressman Neal Abercrombie and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann wound up being fairly one-sided. Abercrombie scored the decisive win, taking 60% of the vote to just 38% of the vote against Hannemann. Abercrombie is now a solid favorite over Republican Lt. Governor Duke Aiona, who easily won the GOP primary.
KS-Gov: Brownback holds solid lead in open seat gubernatorial race
At the start of the cycle, most political observers speculated that Democrats would not be able to hang onto the governor's mansion in red Kansas. That became even more apparent when Senator Sam Brownback announced he was headed home to seek the office. A new SurveyUSA poll does little to change the narrative, with Brownback staked to a large lead (59-32) over Democratic challenger Tom Holland.
ME-Gov: GOPer LePage leads, Indies hurting the Dem?
The new "Maine Poll" (from Critical Insights) does not bring glad tidings to Maine Democrats, as it gives Republican Paul LePage a double-digit lead over Democrat Libby Mitchell in the battle for Governor (38-25). Independent Eliot Cutler is drawing 11% of the vote, and seems to be making it difficult for Mitchell to pull any closer. There are still a raft of undecideds here, though: over one-in-five voters have not picked a candidate.
PA-Gov: New poll has Onorato knocking on Corbett's door in PA
While it is a good idea to wait and see if there is confirmation forthcoming for this single poll, Democrats in Pennsylvania have to be heartened by a new poll by Critical Insights for the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader. The poll is the first in recent memory to show Democrat Dan Onorato right on the heels of Republican frontrunner Tom Corbett. The Times Leader poll shows the race at a mere single-point margin, with Corbett sitting at 38% of the vote and Onorato at 37%.
A busy day at the House of Ras, with numbers in a number of new high-profile races. While some of the numbers are reasonably decent for Democrats, the Ras-sies get one big "boo" for a rather obvious omission in their data to kick off the week. They poll the New York Governor's race. While one could quibble with the toplines (they find Carl Paladino to be considerably closer than...well...anyone), the bigger complaint is that they omit vanquished GOP foe Rick Lazio (who is planning to run on the Conservative line) from their poll.
MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 50%, Robert Ehrlich (R) 47%
MD-Sen: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 54%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 54%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%
RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%, Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robataille (R) 23%
WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 43%
WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) 51%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%