House and Senate Race Roundup

post from Daily Kos on 05 September 2008 06:10:39 PM. © Daily Kos

AK-Sen: Ruh-roh. There's been a big polling rebound for Ted Stevens in the wake of his primary victory and the nomination of Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate.

Ivan Moore Research. 8/30-9/2. Likely voters. MoE 4%. (8/9-12 numbers)

Begich (D) 49 (56)
Stevens (R) 46 (39)

Impressive rebound for Stevens. It could be an outlier, but the numbers for Ethan Berkowitz and Don Young in the same poll seem to make sense. I doubt this is due to any "Palin effect", since Palin has been running from her former political ally as fast as her legs will carry her.

It is one poll, and Begich's lead via Pollster's average is still strong - nearly 17 points. Stevens still has to face trial in October, and Begich's fundraising has been terrific. So in the absence of a poll to confirm, this race can be considered Likely Democratic.

However, this race is apparently far from over.

NM-Sen: This one, on the other hand, is in fact done, at least per the NRSC.

The embattled Red Army is pulling out.

According to published reports by the Politico and Associated Press, the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has canceled its entire $2.3 million television buy for the New Mexico Senate race, essentially abandoning its nominee Steve Pearce and conceding the state. New Mexico joins Virginia in the category of states the NRSC has conceded by declining to run any television ads in support of the Republican nominee.

According to the AP, the NRSC canceled its New Mexico ads a little more than a week after the committee announced it "would have to scale back advertising in battleground states because Republican senators haven't contributed enough money to compete with Democrats." Politico writes that the "committee has reserved time in every other competitive state, but financial constraints may force further cutbacks in ad buys."

"Tom Udall is running an outstanding campaign in New Mexico, and we expect him to be the next United States Senator from the state," DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said. "Three months ago the NRSC said they wouldn’t waste money on races they couldn’t win, and by pulling out of New Mexico, they are backing up their words with action."

It's not "Safe Democratic" yet by any stretch...in fact, Pearce was closing dramatically in the last Rasmussen poll, and third-party organizations can be relied upon to try and clean up the NRSC's mess. Still, this is fantastic for Udall and the rest of the boys in blue.

To remain vigilant on the airwaves, however, the Udall campaign has launched "W00tdall", a lighthearted campaign to call attention to third-party spending in the district.

OMG! We're being outspent in Southern New Mexico!

Seriously, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has dropped a megaton-sized television bomb of badness.

These folks are spending like John McCain buying houses (almost $300,000) trying to buy this Senate seat and we need to increase our tv buy down south to compensate.

They close with a haiku:

Wootdall is crazy.
Udall's Web Team is tired.
Send them hot coffee.

NC-Sen: Per the Charlotte News-Observer, Elizabeth Dole's new ad (attacking Kay Hagan for telling the truth) is just making shit up.

The ad does not specify who "they" are who call Hagan "Fibber Kay."

The Dole campaign said they did not come up with the nickname, but they did not know who did.

"We're not sure who coined it, but we hear people call Kay Hagan 'Fibber Kay' on the campaign trail and we hear it frequently," said spokesman Hogan Gidley.

A search of North Carolina newspapers, blogs and Web sites did not return any references to "Fibber Kay" from before the ad began airing, and nearly all written since were about the ad itself.

The ad does not name any of the supposed "fibs" that Hagan has made.

Hmm. Perhaps another posting of "Rocking Chairs" is in order:

video details and more

Note that Dole's response to ads like these is to run ads comparing her (female) opponent to a dog. Stay classy, Liddy.

House Races

KY-02: Despite a considerable cash shortfall, Democratic State Sen. David Boswell is holding a solid lead over Republican Brett Guthrie in this open-seat race...in an R+13 district, yet.

Garin Hart Yang (D) for David Boswell. 8/30-9/2. Likely voters. MoE 4%. (8/9-12 numbers)

Boswell (D) 41
Guthrie (R) 33

Boswell's fundraising difficulties are made all the more frustrating because this is an eminently winnable race. The DCCC has this one on their radar, but is perhaps reluctant to move in until Boswell starts raising decent money on his own. This internal poll may push their hand, though.

AZ-03: The newest ad from Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord, hammering his opponent, former Gingrich Revolutionary and current abject failure, John Shadegg:

video details and more

OH-15: The second TV ad from Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy, pursuing a prized open seat in OH-15. Its focus is affordable health care:

video details and more

NJ-01: Surprise, surprise, and even more surprise.

After retiring for Congress to wage an ill-advised run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Frank R. Lautenberg, Democratic Rep. Rob Andrews arranged for his wife to run in his stead...though she apparently had no intention of serving.

And now, it seems, Andrews has generously offered to go back to Congress, after stating he had no intention of doing so:

Andrews told reporters on a conference call following the announcement that he passed up a lucrative position with financial and securities firm Goldman Sachs that was "more wealth than [his] family could have ever imagined" to re-enter the House race.

He said his "heart" told him to remain in Congress.

"There’s something about public service that becomes a way of life and a life commitment and not simply a job," Andrews said.

In addition, Andrews said the loss of a senior member of Congress in the region would have been detrimental to the local community.

He's all heart.

Even if he is serious, this whole episode reeks of the kind of machinations that give New Jersey politics their bad name.