Battleground snapshot: Romney gains in the South

post from Daily Kos on 19 October 2012 01:37:49 PM. © Daily Kos

Supporters cheer as U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign event at Capital University in Columbus, Ohio August 21, 2012. Obama is on a two-day campaign trip to Ohio, Nevada and New York. .REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque The deciders.The latest TPM polling composites:

The bulk of this polling is pre-second debate, and points to further deterioration this week in the southern battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Note that Rasmussen is single-handedly boosting Mitt Romney's numbers in most of these states. Take Ras out in Virginia, and President Barack Obama leads by 0.6 points in the composite. Take Ras out of Florida, and Romney's lead is a less gaudy 2.6 points. Take Rasmussen and that crappy Gravis outfit out of Ohio, and it's Obama up by 2.3 points. And so on.

But I'm including the shitty Republican pollsters to give us a worst-case scenario look at the electoral picture. And even with them included, Obama leads 286-252 in the electoral college?not the gaudy 300+ EVs lead he once enjoyed, but still a lead.

It took 7-10 days before we saw the full impact of the first debate, so these numbers represent a sort of baseline for what the race looked like before the second debate. Now we wait and see if Obama was able to reclaim lost territory. And, of course, we GOTV.

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