2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

post from DemConWatch on 01 October 2012 12:08:58 AM. © DemConWatch

Welcome to the first edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

We're not going to do a big analysis in this edition. Everyone's aware that Obama has a small but significant lead in the Electoral College. The average forecast is 289-249, while the consensus map has it at 237-191 with 110 Tossup. The consensus map is based on a majority of the forecasts for each state.

As always we have a wide range of forecasts. Some, like CNN, NBC, Washington Post and NY Times (not 538), change their projections very rarely, while others, like FHQ and Election Projection, change daily.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.