NE-02: Nebraska in Play

post from Daily Kos on 10 October 2008 06:05:02 PM. © Daily Kos

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Terry (R) 49
Esch (D) 39

There hasn't been a lot of polling in this district, the latest being from August, posted at Swing State, with very similar numbers: Terry leading 47-38. This race has been in a holding pattern since 2006, when Terry won this R+9 district by about 10 points.

One element that's different in 2008 is the presence of the Obama campaign, which is getting ready to open their third Omaha office this weekend. The Obama campaign might be seeing different trends in the state than we're seeing in our poll:

McCain (R) 53
Obama (D) 40

The McCain campaign appears to be nervous about the state, sending Palin in last weekend to shore up what should be a reliable state for the Republicans.

They're worried, and Obama is on the offensive in Nebraska. The Obama campaign's investment in the district could make a big difference to both Esch and Kleeb in his Senate race. Where there's three Obama offices, there are swarms of volunteers and usually a well-coordinated ground campaign. Nebraska, like Maine, splits its electoral vote in the presidential, and it would appear that the Obama campaign has plans to contest at least one of them.

With that investment on board, the DCCC is chipping in, too, for Esch. They've added him to their Red to Blue list, and have invested $200K in an ad buy in the district.

Crosstabs for the poll below the fold.