Right-Wing Media Rely On Discredited Evidence To
Dismiss Positive Jobs Report

Right-wing media are rushing to put a negative spin on newly released jobs numbers showing a drop in the unemployment rate and a net increase in jobs by parroting the discredited claim that government data show that "1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force" last month. In fact, as economic experts have explained, that number reflected an increase in population from 2010 Census figures and is not the result of how many people "dropped out" of the labor force last month.

After The LaborDepartment Reported January Employment Growth

LaborDepartment: Employment Rose By 243,000 Jobs In January And Unemployment DroppedTo 8.3 Percent. From theBureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, andthe unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector,with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure andhospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment changed little over themonth.

[...]

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point in Januaryto 8.3 percent; the rate has fallen by 0.8 point since August. [Bureauof Labor Statistics, 2/3/12]

NY Times: Two Million Jobs Added In Past Year. The New York Times' Economix blog reportedthat "[o]ver the last 12 months, the economy added nearly two million jobs,more than in any similar period since early 2007." [The New York Times,Economix, 2/3/12]

Financial Blog Zero Hedge Dismissed Employment Growth With Dubious Claim That"1.2 Million People Dropped Out Of The Labor Force"

Zero Hedge:"1.2 Million People Dropped Out Of The Labor Force In One Month!" A post on economics and finance blog ZeroHedge claimed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics report estimated that "1.2million people dropped out of the labor force" in January. [Zero Hedge, 2/3/12]

But Experts Argue That The 1.2 Million NumberIs Based On A Misreading Of The Jobs Report

EconomicJournalist Barry Ritholtz: "The Fact Is 1 Million People Did Not Drop Out OfThe Labor Force In January 2012." Economic journalist and Washington Post columnist BarryRitholtz explained that those who are claiming that 1.2 million people droppedout of the labor force in January are misreading the Labor Department's jobsreport:

Sotoday following an otherwise pretty darn good jobs report, we get the usualperma-pessimists at Zero Hedge and Rick Santelli over at CNBC proclaiming thatthe report showed a drop of over 1 million people from the labor force in onemonth. Of course, as ususal, both Santelli and Zero Hedge have a real readingcomprehension problem and completely missed that this million+ people isn'tsome new January phenomenon, but a result of the BLS using the 2010 census datato have more accurate data. In other words, the changes in the Household Surveyto the various measures had taken place over the years prior to 2010, but forsimplicity's sake, the BLS incorporates these changes into one month (whichthey clearly point out).

[...]

[T]hefact is 1 million people did not drop out of the labor force in January 2012.[The Big Picture, 2/3/12]

WSJ: Population Growth Didn't Affect Unemployment Rate. In a post analyzing the jobs report numbers, The Wall Street Journal'sReal Time Economics blog explained:

Today'sjobs report carries good news on both fronts. The unemployment rate fell, andthe employment-population ratio rose. That means the improvement in the labormarket is real -- people actually found jobs.

Theemployment gain wasn't immediately obvious to some observers because of a quirkin this month's report. Every January, the Labor Department readjusts its data toaccount for changes in the population. The tweaks are especially significant inyears like this one that take into account a new decennial census.

Thisyear, the population adjustment makes it look like the employment-populationratio didn't change from December to January. In reality, the ratio improved by0.3 percentage points. The gains were just masked by the populationadjustments.

Here'swhat happened: According to the CensusBureau, the civilian population grew by 1.5 million people in2011. But the growth wasn't distributed evenly. Most of the growth came amongpeople 55 and older and, to a lesser degree, by people 16-24 years old. Bothgroups are less likely to work than people in their mid-20s to early 50s. Sothe share of the population that's working is actually lower than previouslybelieved. Taking that into account, the employment-population ratio went up.The unemployment rate wasn't affected.

"Therewas not a big increase in discouraged workers," economist Betsey Stevensoncommented on Twitter. "What happened was Census found a bunch of old people wehad assumed died." [The Wall Street Journal, 2/3/12]

Time: "The Labor Force Numbers StayedEssentially The Same." Timereporter Massimo Calabresi wrote:

Some Obama opponents are struggling to find a cloud in the silverlining of January's jobs numbers, which estimated that there was a 243,000-jobboost and a big drop in the unemployment rate, from 8.5% to 8.3%, last month.Their biggest gripe focuses onthe size of the labor force: As the unemployment rate has trended down over thelast few months, anti-Obama commentators have argued that the officialpercentage for those without jobs is deceptive because the Bureau of LaborStatistics doesn't count those who have stopped looking for work. In Friday'sreport, they found a sharp increase in that group: More than 1.2 million peoplejoined the non-job seeking pool of working-age Americans last month.

[...]

The demographic adjustments had no effect on the unemploymentrate, says Mary Bowler, the resident expert in these matters at the BLS. Andwhen it comes to labor force estimates, the steep jump in the number of thosenot seeking work came entirely from the census adjustment, which added 1.25million people to that group. If you take out the census adjustment, the laborforce numbers stayed essentially the same, as reflected by the labor forceparticipation rate of 63.7%. In other words, the spike in the number of peopleno longer looking for work is entirely the result of some people at the LaborDepartment adding numbers to their spread sheets rather than an actual observedshift anywhere in the real economy. [Time, 2/3/12]

Right-Wing MediaJumped On The Discredited Figure To Dismiss Jobs Report As "Corrupt"

Rush LimbaughCited The 1.2 Million Number To Argue That The Jobs Report Is "Corrupt." On his radio show, Rush Limbaugh citedZero Hedge and claimed that "1.2 million people dropped out of the labor forcein one month" to argue that the jobs numbers report is as "corrupt as it canbe." [Premiere Radio Networks, The Rush Limbaugh Show, 2/3/12]

Sean HannityRepeated The 1.2 Million Falsehood To Claim Lower Unemployment Rate Is "Phony." On his radio show, Sean Hannity stated:"It appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedentedrecord 1.2 million and that's not a typo. In other words, 1.2 million peopledropped out of the labor force in one month." He then explained that what thisshows is that the unemployment rate is a "phony number." Hannity added: "Thisjobs report has limited good news but phony numbers all around it." [PremiereRadio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 2/3/12]

Fox NationHighlighted Limbaugh's Charge That Unemployment Rate Number Is "Corrupt." Fox Nation amplified Limbaugh's criticismof the jobs report using the headline: "Rush Slams 'Corrupt' Obama Jobs Stats":

[Fox Nation, 2/3/12]

Drudge:"Record 1.2M Fall Out Of Labor Force." The Drudge Report highlighted the misleading claim that 1.2million people dropped out of the labor force:

[Drudge Report, 2/3/12]

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